The emergence of Tutut as a presidential candidate

The emergence of Tutut as a presidential candidate

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor, National Resilience Institute
(Lemhanas), Jakarta

General R. Hartono, former Army Chief of Staff and presently
the chairman of the PKPB Party, last week announced Siti
Hardijanti Rukmana, or Tutut, President Soeharto's eldest
daughter, as the PKPB's presidential candidate.

Although the close relationship between Hartono and Tutut is
public knowledge, many were very surprised by the announcement.
As with other parties, Hartono as the party's chairman was
expected to be his party's presidential candidate.

Perhaps not a few people have been surprised to learn that
only five years after their father's resignation and the start of
the Reform Movement, a member of the Soeharto family has the
courage to return to politics. Not just politics, but actually
competing in the presidential election! What is happening now
indicates some home truths that the Indonesian public should take
into consideration.

First, Tutut's reappearance in the political world must be
seen as a failure on the part of the Reform Movement to achieve
its objectives. Hartono would not dare to gamble the future of
his party if he was not convinced that many people in Indonesia
feel very nostalgic for to the relatively stable situation under
the Soeharto regime.

He appealed to all these people to join his party and support
Tutut in her bid for the presidency so that the stability of the
New Order could be reestablished. Although Tutut stated that she
had not yet confirmed her acceptance of the nomination, the fact
that she and her husband were present during the nomination
indicates that she does not disapprove of the request.

It is indeed public knowledge that for some time many people,
especially fishermen and farmers, are longing for security and
better conditions for them to make a living. Although they did
not earn very much under the New Order government, fishermen and
farmers at least felt their livelihoods were secure. Today even
fishermen in the Pulau Seribu area, an area quite close to the
nation's capital city, are very often attacked and robbed of
their entire day's catch. They say that things like that would
never have happen when Soeharto was president.

Because Soeharto was a very active fisherman himself who at
least once a week went to sea on a fishing trip, the fishermen
say that Soeharto would never have allowed them to be disturbed
and robbed. The same feeling can be found in the countryside
where farmers today feel that the government does not understand
them and their daily problems. Very different from Soeharto, who
could talk with farmers about their problems as he really knew
about them -- often even better than his minister of agriculture.

These sentiments are not only becoming stronger in Java or
around Jakarta, but are developing in other areas also. This is
only possible because the Reform Movement, with all its
idealistic objectives, has not been able to bring changes that
have benefited the majority of the people, in particular those in
the countryside and along the coast.

However, this does not mean that Tutut, as Soeharto's
daughter, will be able to deliver the same positive results as
her father. On the contrary, she is widely seen as one of the
causes behind the growth of the rampant collusion, corruption and
nepotism that negated all the positive sides of his 30-year-long
leadership. However, nostalgic people are not thinking that far
back as they just want a solution to their present problems of
insecurity and instability.

It will be very interesting to see whether Tutut can put the
incumbent President under pressure. She will first have to prove
that she can garner more popularity than the other candidates,
especially Amien Rais and Soesilo Bambang Yudoyono (SBY). So far
no pollsters have included Tutut in their questionnaires. It is
therefore not clear whether Tutut's nomination has had any
significant impact on the race so far.

If Tutut's past political activities have some influence on
her present reappearance, very interesting developments are
possible. In the past Tutut was very active in promoting people
who were close to her. These were not only Golkar people, but
some were people who are now active in the Muslim-based parties.
It is very possible that these people in the past were
positioning themselves close to Tutut based entirely on
opportunistic reasons, namely because of her position close to
Soeharto as the decision-maker.

But if some of them are considering other factors, like those
who are now members of Hartono's PKPB, it is not impossible that
even today they will be willing to support Tutut. If that
happens, the Islamic parties will lose many more supporters than
they have so far admitted. It is worth noticing in this regard
that according a polling institute, the LSI, Muslim voters seem
to be more interested in voting for nationalist rather than
Islamic parties.

The speculation by some political observers that the members
of TNI families will support Tutut en masse cannot be accepted.
Of course, those in the TNI who had outstanding careers because
of Tutut's support will repay their debts and take their family
members with them. However, the majority of the TNI did not gain
special favors from Soeharto and his family. Some were even
disadvantaged by unfair decisions on the part of Soeharto. These
people will certainly not be influenced by Tutut's candidacy.
Most members of TNI families will be more inclined to take a
stance based upon their present interests.

Although Tutut's reemergence in the political arena today is a
very interesting development, the implications will only begin to
become apparent after some polls have been take regarding her
popularity vis-a-vis the other candidates. Only if she proves to
be in the same popularity league as Amien Rais and Soesilo
Bambang Yudoyono will her entry into the presidential race have
any relevance to the upcoming presidential elections.

But it is worth mentioning that Tutut as a person can be more
active and communicative than President Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Many people say that she can be quite charming. Her other strong
point is her family's wealth, a factor that is very important in
Indonesia's political world. The question of whether Tutut has
the leadership qualities that the nation needs to achieve
progress and prosperity is difficult to answer.

In a discussion with some international business people before
Soeharto's resignation, the late Prof. Sumitro Djojohadikusumo
tipped the president's daughter as a possible successor to her
father. However, that was not the writer's position back then and
it is certainly not today.