The bumpy road to true democratic society

This article is based on the presentation of political observer Ichlasul Amal, rector of Gadjah Mada University, in the discussion "Postelection Indonesia: Who Will Be the Fourth President?" held recently at The Jakarta Post's representative office in Yogyakarta.

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Gadjah Mada University has predicted what would happen after the elections and prepared a scenario based on an "objective" mechanism. Yet, objective things are often neglected unless conditions for the objectivity to occur are fulfilled. During the rule of Soeharto, for example, there were many suggestions about what Soeharto should do to prevent the situation from going from bad to worse, yet nothing was done until the multi-sided crisis forced him to resign.

The situation is repeating itself now. The people have foreseen the possibility of certain political parties winning an equal number of votes, thus rendering a bumpy presidential election, although the 1945 Constitution clearly stipulates that the election in the presidential system only elects members of the House of Representatives. Therefore, the winner will only dominate the legislative body and not automatically become the president. In the parliamentary system, however, the winner of the elections would automatically become prime minister.

The problem is our presidential system also acknowledges the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). This is unique as probably the only one in the world. Indonesia follows a mixed system which is very specific. We do not know why our past leaders formed the MPR, which has no precedent in world history.

Generally when we talk about the presidential system, we refer to the U.S. system which is based on the mechanism of checks and balances. People elect members of the House of Representatives and the president. The House and the president act as a check and balance for each other. It is not the case here, however, because the MPR is above both of them.

In the MPR itself there are two crucial and controversial issues of the regional and group representatives. It is obvious that whoever is in power exploits and manipulates the group representation system to maintain power. The regional representatives system also has been exploited for the same reason. Although in the New Order era they were appointed according to the amount of votes garnered in each region, a governor ultimately was in charge. The system was considered correct because it was based on the interpretation of those in power.

The situation is more difficult at present as the winner of the elections, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), does not hold a full majority. It needs a coalition, or whatever it is called, to secure enough votes in the MPR. Remember, there are two components in the Assembly that are unpredictable, the regional and the group representatives.

It is true that the General Elections Commission (KPU) has determined that the group representatives would represent women, non-governmental organizations and universities. Yet, it's not yet clear who will decide on them, how the appointment will be done, from which NGOs or universities should the representatives be selected and so on.

During Soeharto's rule, the group representatives did not have their own factions. All of them were members of the ruling Golkar Party. Now, it is not as clear-cut. All the uncertainty could invite protests in the future because there is no guarantee that the winner of the elections also will dominate the MPR unless it collects at least 60 percent of the vote.

The situation will provide political brokers a bigger chance to speculate about the presidential election mechanism. To avoid such uncertainty, I believe it is time to introduce the one-man- one-vote mechanism in the MPR. It's important to prevent the legislators from repeating the bad practices of the New Order government.

In this case, it's also important to apply a secret ballot system in applying the mechanism and not by asking the members of the MPR to stand up to vote. The practice has been implemented in China. What used to be a 100 percent of the votes has turned into a variety of results, including 250 abstentions.

Therefore, a major change in the MPR's membership procedure has to be established. The last General Session of the MPR decided that the MPR should hold an assembly every year. It is a bit odd. What are they going to discuss in such an annual assembly? Such a decision is not an answer to the question about the current problem.

Under such a condition, should the proposition I mentioned above be acceptable, the presidential election process could be "manipulated" in a good sense that whoever comes out from the process would be 100 percent accepted by the people.

Another method, for example, could be done by using the so- called stage-by-stage presidential election. It is done by first making nominations from which 15 best nominees, for example, are selected. In the second round, 10 of them would screened out. Each of the five would then be required to present their programs to prevent us from buying a pig from a poke.

The next step is voting. The one who gets the highest votes will be named president, the one who gets the second highest will be vice president. All of this process is done openly.

If we continue to be caught up in the current debate over coalitions we will end up in even greater uncertainty.

The Australian Ambassador once told me that PDI Perjuangan's coalition with the reformist parties could not be taken for granted, and that it could possibly ally with Habibie instead in a presidential election deadlock.

Should this happen, the new government would obviously invite a debate that in turn would also yield in to other political brokers. This could cause new instability.

The mechanism I am proposing could be the most feasible way to overcome the deadlock as right from the beginning we have to accept the principles of democracy.

There are signs that underground movements are at work and possibly there also are many underground forces at play creating numerous scapegoats in the process. This is one thing we should avoid should we want to enter a democratic era.

The proposed mechanism will also avoid the most dreadful possibility of the resurgence of aliran politics (underlying religious, cultural affiliations). Government leaders since the 1950s have tried hard to eradicate aliran politics. Yet, such groupings still exist today.

Maybe, with everything moving to a better situation, with a mechanism that we will accept and apply transparently, we are forced to accept realities. This, in turn, will make it possible for us to look back at the MPR's membership system, especially the one regarding the regional and group representatives, and give it new thought. Gadjah Mada University has suggested that regional and group representatives should be elected separately from members of the House of Representatives to ensure they would be truly representative of their professed groups or regions.

The system suitable for electing regional representatives is, therefore, the full district system. We should bear in mind that the tension between Java and regions outside could rise to the surface in the near future. We should anticipate this right from the start.(swa)