The aftermath of Uganda's flawed polls

By Alex de Waal

LONDON: The outcome of the Ugandan election is not in doubt. President Yoweri Museveni will win handsomely, aided by some 2.5 million "ghost voters" on the electoral roll -- more than 20 percent of the total -- and the fact that the army has been called out to supervise the poll.

Museveni did not need to rig the election. His record is good enough to deliver a majority of votes. Ugandans have enjoyed more stability and prosperity under the last 15 years of Museveni's "no party democracy" than under the previous regimes of Milton Obote and Idi Amin.

International aid donors, led by Britain, have rewarded Museveni's market oriented economic policies and his commitment to universal primary education and overcoming Aids.

But Museveni is a military commander of autocratic leaning who routinely vows to "crush" his opponents. Over the years his cronies have grown fabulously rich on the pickings of "privatization" and, more recently, the mineral wealth of neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, where many army battalions are stationed.

The president was taking no risks. In the 1996 elections he faced no serious challenges: his opponent, Paulo Ssemogerere, was easily branded a relic of the discredited factional politics of Uganda's disastrous past.

This time around, however, Museveni faces credible opposition from within his National Resistance Movement. The challenger is Kizza Besigye, a comrade in arms from the days of the guerrilla struggle, and his former physician and minister.

Dr Besigye does not dispute Museveni's successes, but calls for reform. The government, he says, has grown corrupt, and has launched expensive foreign adventures that bring no benefits to ordinary Ugandans.

Museveni's response to this challenge has been intimidation and outright violence. Ugandans were stunned by the arrest and detention of the youth coordinator for the Besigye campaign, Maj. Okwir Rabwoni.

After a four-hour standoff at Entebbe airport on Feb. 20, a company of military police seized the MP by force, threw him on to a pickup truck and took him to military intelligence headquarters for interrogation.

Maj. Rabwoni fled the country a few days later. On March 3, the president ordered the army to "ensure order" in the elections. The same day, troops opened fire on an opposition rally in Rukengeri, forcing Dr Besigye himself to run for his life. At least one person was killed.

The question is not who will win, but, what does this deeply flawed election mean for Uganda? Consider the warning signals for conflict that are already flashing. First, many Ugandans will deny that the elections represent the real choice of the country. Second, both the Movement and the army are divided -- and Uganda's soldiers are among the most politicized in Africa.

Prominent Besigye supporters include several with unhealthy records who have even recently come perilously close to inciting xenophobic violence.

Museveni's generals have made implicit threats, saying that weapons are still there for ruling the country should the election not go according to plan. There are enough angry and bitter people to react to any call to insurrection.

Up to now the international community has been conspicuously silent. Museveni has been the favored African leader of both Whitehall and Washington, and has been given carte blanche in domestic affairs. A few human rights irregularities have been considered a small price to pay for stability.

But today's favorites can easily become tomorrow's erratic despots: consider the fall from grace of President Mugabe of Zimbabwe. Similarly, lessons from across the world show that early warning signs of conflict are ignored at our peril. Discreet but firm diplomatic intervention at an early stage can prevent the kind of crisis that has engulfed Sierra Leone.

Museveni will emerge from the elections weakened and damaged. His post-electoral challenge will be to unite his country and embark upon a real process of democratization.

The writer is director of Justice Africa.

-- Guardian News Service