The 2004 elections, is Indonesia ready?

The 2004 elections, is Indonesia ready?

Daniel Lindgren
Associate Director
TNS Indonesia
Jakarta

Still recovering from the aftermath of the Bali bombings, 2003
saw Indonesia faced with SARS and new terrorist attacks.
Considering the circumstances 2003 has not been such a bad year
after all. The outlook for 2004 is moderately positive but the
world will continue to watch Indonesia as it faces up to yet
another big challenge, the upcoming General Election.

The 2004 election will be a unique undertaking never before
seen in Indonesia. In addition to the General Election, the
country will hold its first ever, direct presidential election.
The two stage presidential election is very likely to go to a
second round unless of course a presidential candidate is able to
capture 50 percent majority in the first round of votes.

That is highly unlikely given the current sentiments that
exist in Indonesia. So the top two candidates will battle it out
in a second round of voting. Some question whether Indonesia is
ready for this. But as a matter of fact, this is what the vast
majority of the people want as indicated by past opinion
research. The constitution was amended accordingly.

One of the developments that can be seen is that Indonesians
are taking a more active role in politics. More Indonesians now
compared to before are aware of National Level Institutions such
as DPR and MPR and the President's Reform Agenda. For example,
the vast majority of Indonesians do hold an opinion as to whether
they are happy with law enforcement and decentralization through
local autonomy.

This is encouraging despite the many issues surrounding the
coming election. So whilst security certainly is an issue that
many fear could become a problem, participation in the 2004
general election is likely to be very high.

A recent survey carried out by TNS show that no less that 96
percent of eligible voters in the three cities of Jakarta,
Surabaya and Bandung said they intend to vote in 2004. Whilst not
representative of Indonesia as a whole, that is a promising
number. This means that the electorate is indeed thinking about
the political situation in this country and they clearly care
about the nations future leadership. No doubt that if people care
then high participation can be expected.

In the same survey, those who voted in 1999 were asked whether
they would vote for the same party. It turns out that only 28
percent of past voters said they would vote for the same party.
Another 18 percent confessed they would vote for a different
party and the remaining 54 percent were not sure at this stage.

This suggests that there could be a big swing in voter
preferences. It is of course too early to say which party will
benefit from this swing and who will suffer but it does send a
signal that a large proportion of the electorate are already
considering alternatives. Some would argue it shows that a
general negative sentiment may be looming.

Whilst such a conclusion is consistent with recent polls
showing increasing dissatisfaction with the country's leaders, as
well as the performance of representative bodies in terms of law
making and governance, this can not be implied directly. It could
simply mean that some voters are less than loyal. The 2004
election will certainly be a challenge for the current
government, for political parties, the electorate itself and not
the least, the General Election Commission (KPU).

An already debated issue for the coming election is the
introduction of a new election system and to what extent the
electorate will be able to vote correctly. Early trials have
shown rather poor compliance with more than one in every two
votes being invalid. An added dimension to this is that many
eligible voters don't know, at this stage, that there will be a
separate presidential election.

The recent survey carried out by TNS showed that just over one
quarter (26 percent) of the electorate are aware that there will
be a separate presidential election. This may be a conservative
estimate given that the survey was carried out in the major
cities. In rural areas, where 58 percent of the total population
live, awareness is likely to be lower.

To help raise awareness, the Government has already launched a
joint nationwide awareness campaign together with the KPU.
Raising awareness may seem like a rather straightforward affair
but could turn out to be rather challenging when considering the
low media consumption in some of the more remote parts of
Indonesia. A perhaps even more challenging task will be to
educate the electorate on how the new electoral system actually
works.

With over 20 political parties expected to contest the
election, ballot papers are likely to be long and complicated.
The risk of confusion is high. The order in which parties appear
on the ballot paper will be another interesting debate to follow.
Fortunately there are dedicated NGOs who work with various
stakeholders to help in the process. The conduct of research in
the form of opinion polls that highlight the issues at hand is of
course one important element in this process.

In this vein, the TNS survey also investigated factors
perceived to have most influence on the Indonesian economy. In
other words, what are some of the issues that the electorate is
concerned about and would like to see improve?

In the recent past, the number one concern has been the high
price of basic goods. However, the issue found to be of most
concern in this survey was corruption. No less than 82 percent of
the 1009 men and women surveyed felt this was an issue that
impacted negatively on the Indonesian economy.

The second issue of most concern was unemployment with 61
percent followed by high prices at 57 percent. Government
mismanagement came forth with 46 percent and in fifth place came
security with 37 percent. The issue of declining foreign
investment, often quoted as a pressing issue for Indonesia, was
only selected by 17 percent. Again, although these issues may not
be representative of all Indonesians they highlight potential
platforms for political policy formulation.

No doubt the election will bring many challenges and many will
predict uncertainty and possibly instability. However, it seems
possible that the electorate has already factored in this
uncertainly, so perhaps there is an underlying hope that things
may improve. People may be dissatisfied but the election will
provide for an opportunity to bring about change.

Of course, when people don't care they may decide not to
participate and hence don't vote for any party or candidate. They
don't take a stand because they don't feel it is important. But
that does not seem to be the case. The electorate will
participate and they do have "real" concerns. As long as people
know how to vote and have the means to participate, they will
turn up. They may not be ready today, but there is still time.

Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) is a market information group