Thaksin's landslide win could threaten democracy: Analysts

Adianto P. Simamora, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The landslide victory of Thailand's ruling party Thai Rak Thai (TRT) in the recent elections could sound the death knell for the country's opposition parties and lead to the establishment of a single-party government.

Many analysts fear an authoritarian and violent regime under TRT's leader and Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which would risk Thailand's young democracy.

Thaksin is expecting to win 400 seats in the 500-seat parliament. The provisional results indicate TRT (Thais Love Thais) party has already won at least 376 seats.

The 376 figure is sufficient for Thaksin, a telecom-tycoon- turned politician to establish a single-party government in the country.

Bantarto Bandoro, a foreign policy expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta said that Thaksin's strong mandate could be seen as an attempt to maintain the power of the TRT.

"From this perspective, it is not impossible in gradual processes -- if Thaksin can win the hearts of Thai people -- there will be a new dictatorship in Thailand, the equivalent of Indonesia's Soeharto era," Bantarto told The Jakarta Post.

He said that if this eventuated, ongoing discussions on advancing true democracy and protecting human rights in ASEAN members countries under the ASEAN Security Community (ASC) could be rendered ineffective.

"Of course, this would be a setback for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). I am worried it will undermine efforts to accelerate the ASEAN community into (becoming) more democratic," he said.

Bantarto said ASEAN leaders needed to warn Thailand to ensure that the principles of democracy were promoted during Thaksin's second term.

"ASEAN must dare to warn Thailand to avoid a new dictatorship. They must discuss it in the regional forum. I think the worst scenario is that if ASEAN does not dare to warn Thailand, the ASC principles will be fruitless," he said.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political scientist at the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) shared Bantarto's opinion, saying that ASEAN would no longer expect too much from Thailand concerning the promotion of democracy and human rights issues.

"From the perspective of democracy, there is a setback in the promotion of human rights issues in Thailand, mainly after the death of hundreds of Muslim people in Thailand's southern provinces," she told The Post.

She said that Thailand was persistent in the promotion of democracy and human rights under its previous prime ministers.

"So, we can't expect the same treatment from Thailand now. This will be a set back for ASEAN, we will face a tough challenge from Bangkok in implementing the ASC," Dewi said.

She said that with a single-party government in Thailand in the next four years, democracy and human rights issues could be set aside.

Both Bantarto and Dewi urged civil society and activists in Thailand to be more active in monitoring Thaksin's administration.