Thailand should help with reforms in Myanmar

Michael Vatikiotis, Bangkok

It's time that Thailand stopped standing in the way of progressive political change in Myanmar. This may sound like an odd plea given Thailand's professed desire to see progress towards democracy in Myanmar. Bangkok even boasts a roadmap to help Southeast Asia's most isolated nation reach this destination.

But there's less here than meets the eye and the path to freedom that Thailand would like Myanmar to take is long and winding, in contrast to the impatience felt, not only in the West but also many regional capitals where Myanmar's lack of political progress is becoming a severe embarrassment.

It is now more urgent that ever to cajole and push the military rulers of Myanmar towards change because in 2006 the country will assume the chairmanship of ASEAN. Without progress towards constructive political change, there's a real danger that ASEAN's dialogue partners will boycott important meetings-and there are already calls for Myanmar to be expelled from the regional grouping.

Thailand and China are the two countries best positioned to accelerate the process of change in Myanmar. They are both close to the Myanmar regime and collaborate closely on regional diplomacy to manage the problem. When Myanmar's military leaders visits Beijing, Chinese officials brief their Thai counterparts, for example.

Arguably though, it is in neither Bangkok's nor Beijing's interest to change the status quo very much. So long as the junta claims to be pursuing reform, that's okay. Beijing officials call this "constructive political development". The Thais say they are happy with the country moving at a pace the Myanmar junta can accommodate without feeling that it is caving into external pressure.

In reality for Beijing, a sudden change of political climate in Myanmar would mean the flowering of a young democracy on its doorstep, setting an example and lending renewed hope to domestic reformers and the people of Tibet. China also needs to ensure that Myanmar remains a docile client state so that it can develop physical links to the sea and secure energy security and fend off strategic encirclement. Beijing is building roads and bridges up and down the country at friendship prices to establish this vital land bridge. Why remove a regime that is pliant because it can't get help from anywhere else?

For Thailand the fear is economic competition. An elected civilian government in Yangon would attract significant interest from regional and overseas investors eager to tap into a new cheap labor pool and significant natural resources. Thailand has a long memory and can recall the days, some forty years ago, when Myanmar's vibrant rice-exporting economy put Thailand in the shade. Japan has a long and happy relationship with Myanmar going back its occupation of the country during the Pacific War. They idealize the gentle Burman and his Buddhist faith. Many Japanese would move there from costly and congested Thailand in a blink of an eye.

This explains why both Thailand and China can live comfortably with the current glacial pace of political reform in Myanmar. It keeps the country nicely on the economic margin, and makes doing business through military and official circles imperative. Why bother lifting sanctions and opening up the market when you can make more by doing cosy deals with the junta?

But if Thailand was to think more of it's standing in ASEAN and the world, rather than its own narrow interests and that of its chief patron Beijing, it could help accelerate political change in Myanmar. More energetic lobbying for change would also help Thailand's bid for its foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, to become United Nations Secretary general in two years.

Bangkok could start by sounding more serious about the need for reform, rather than sounding like a business partner of the junta. Sadly, with the recent removal of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt who was close to officials in Bangkok, the Thai government seemed to be scrambling to renew ties with the junta rather than sever them.

The writer is a former editor and chief correspondent of the Far Eastern Economic Review. He can be reached at michaelvatikiotis@yahoo.com