Thai PM Banharn takes revenge on his allies

Thai PM Banharn takes revenge on his allies

By Harvey Stockwin

HONG KONG (JP): Thai Prime Minister Banharn Silpa-archa took
his revenge on his allies in the ruling six-party coalition when
he asked King Bhumibol last Friday to dissolve parliament and set
a new general election for Nov. 17.

Banharn's decision to dissolve was one in which none of his
coalition partners participated. The prime minister's choice of
the expensive election option, a mere 15 months after the last
trip to the hustings, was one which none of his allies wanted.

But , by making this choice, Banharn got even with those who
forced him to promise to resign a week ago as the price for their
continued support.

At that time, Banharn, after being personally denounced
continuously for three days in the Thai House of Representatives
for his corrupt and incompetent administration, faced the almost
certain, and unprecedented, passage of a vote of no-confidence.

Would-be prime minister, Deputy Prime Minister Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh then announced that he would only vote against the
motion if Banharn stepped down, and other party leaders within
the coalition followed suit.

One widely-circulated news agency picture told the story. It
showed his coalition partners politely (and hypocritically)
clapping after Banharn announced that he would resign within
seven days. Chavalit is leading the applause, looking as if he is
already counting on becoming prime minister within a few days.

But on Banharn's face is a look of suppressed fury which
clearly signaled a man bent on some reciprocal back-stabbing of
his own. The picture accurately anticipated the events of the
next six days, culminating in Banharn's decision to dissolve.

In a nutshell, the coalition could not agree on a replacement
prime minister. This was largely because Banharn, a wily
political operator even if he has been an ineffective national
leader, wanted it that way.

He could have easily agreed to hand over leadership of the
coalition to Chavalit had he wanted to do so. Instead Banharn
floated the names of other contenders. First he put forward the
name of aged veteran Thai politician Pramarn Adireksarn.

Pramarn has always wanted a spell as prime minister. He is a
leading member of Banharn's Chart Thai party, whereas Chavalit
leads his own New Aspiration Party, the second largest in the
coalition. But Pramarn, at 82 years old, hardly offered the image
of fresh leadership which the government needed.

Another name advanced was that of the Chart Pattana party
leader, former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan, who was
ousted by a military coup in 1991. Chatichai at least had the
merit of appearing to be a more dynamic prospect than Pramarn.

Had the politicians been listening to the business community,
which is increasingly restive over Thailand's currently declining
economic prospects, then the coalition would have advanced Deputy
Prime Minister Amnuay Viravan. Amid all the political jockeying,
Thailand's economic health was a lesser consideration for the
politicians than the small size of Amnuay's Nam Thai party.

Throughout the week Banharn declined to call the coalition
leaders all together to make a prime ministerial choice. He
thereby seemed to accentuate a split within his own Chart Thai
party since at least one faction of it thought that switching to
a Chavalit premiership was the best coalition prospect.

Finally, Banharn set a meeting for Friday, but there was still
no discussion of the leadership. Instead, Banharn told his
former, but not future, colleagues that he had already obtained
the King's agreement to a dissolution, with the polls set for
Nov. 17.

Amnuay disclosed that "it was the decision of the premier, who
did not consult anyone, not even the secretary-general of his own
party".

No picture has yet been circulated of the Banharn
announcement. If and when it is, expect to see a sweet smile of
revenge on Banharn's face, and suppressed fury on Chavalit's.

Chavalit, who has ambitiously pursued the premiership ever
since he stepped down as armed forces chief-of-staff, must be
wishing that he had voted for last week's no-confidence motion,
after all. Now Chavalit will try to assist the further break-up
of Banharn's Chart Thai party but, even then, he is unlikely to
emerge from the election leading the largest single party.

A lot of things could change in the next seven weeks, but the
present likely benefactor from Banharn's decision to dissolve
will be the leader of the Democrat Party, former prime minister
Chuan Leekpai. Chuan resigned in 1995 rather than face a vote on
a motion of no-confidence but his administration appears
positively principled, efficient, and honest compared to
Banharn's.

Right now, Banharn appears to have achieved nothing except to
postpone his exit from politics for seven weeks. But it would be
unwise to write him off completely. Banharn is not known in his
home bailiwick as the "walking ATM" (automatic telling machine)
for nothing. He is renowned for the way in which he freely throws
money at political problems.

His coalition partners did not want another election right now
precisely because they are short of funds for this purpose. But
if only a few of the allegations of corruption recently voiced
against Benharn are actually true, then a plentiful supply of
funds will be the least of his own political problems.

Additionally, Banharn will be prime minister, and acting
interior minister in his caretaker cabinet during the next seven
weeks -- and therefore in charge of actually running and
overseeing the election arrangements.

Additionally, he will be hosting scheduled state visits by
U.S. President Bill Clinton and Britain's Queen Elizabeth during
that period.

Faced with the prospect that a thoroughly discredited prime
minister will play host to these distinguished visitors, there
are probably not a few Thais wishing that King Bhumibol had
refused the request for a dissolution.

Since the monarch could not refuse, Banharn spoke more truly
than he knew when he justified his decision in terms of returning
"the important mandate of political determination to the people
at this turning point".

The election on Nov. 17 will illustrate whether the Thai
electorate is determined to stop electing walking ATMS as
politicians and prime ministers.

Window: Right now, Banharn appears to have achieved nothing except
to postpone his exit from politics for seven weeks. But it would
be unwise to write him off completely.