Thai PM Banharn takes revenge on his allies

By Harvey Stockwin

HONG KONG (JP): Thai Prime Minister Banharn Silpa-archa took his revenge on his allies in the ruling six-party coalition when he asked King Bhumibol last Friday to dissolve parliament and set a new general election for Nov. 17.

Banharn's decision to dissolve was one in which none of his coalition partners participated. The prime minister's choice of the expensive election option, a mere 15 months after the last trip to the hustings, was one which none of his allies wanted.

But , by making this choice, Banharn got even with those who forced him to promise to resign a week ago as the price for their continued support.

At that time, Banharn, after being personally denounced continuously for three days in the Thai House of Representatives for his corrupt and incompetent administration, faced the almost certain, and unprecedented, passage of a vote of no-confidence.

Would-be prime minister, Deputy Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh then announced that he would only vote against the motion if Banharn stepped down, and other party leaders within the coalition followed suit.

One widely-circulated news agency picture told the story. It showed his coalition partners politely (and hypocritically) clapping after Banharn announced that he would resign within seven days. Chavalit is leading the applause, looking as if he is already counting on becoming prime minister within a few days.

But on Banharn's face is a look of suppressed fury which clearly signaled a man bent on some reciprocal back-stabbing of his own. The picture accurately anticipated the events of the next six days, culminating in Banharn's decision to dissolve.

In a nutshell, the coalition could not agree on a replacement prime minister. This was largely because Banharn, a wily political operator even if he has been an ineffective national leader, wanted it that way.

He could have easily agreed to hand over leadership of the coalition to Chavalit had he wanted to do so. Instead Banharn floated the names of other contenders. First he put forward the name of aged veteran Thai politician Pramarn Adireksarn.

Pramarn has always wanted a spell as prime minister. He is a leading member of Banharn's Chart Thai party, whereas Chavalit leads his own New Aspiration Party, the second largest in the coalition. But Pramarn, at 82 years old, hardly offered the image of fresh leadership which the government needed.

Another name advanced was that of the Chart Pattana party leader, former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan, who was ousted by a military coup in 1991. Chatichai at least had the merit of appearing to be a more dynamic prospect than Pramarn.

Had the politicians been listening to the business community, which is increasingly restive over Thailand's currently declining economic prospects, then the coalition would have advanced Deputy Prime Minister Amnuay Viravan. Amid all the political jockeying, Thailand's economic health was a lesser consideration for the politicians than the small size of Amnuay's Nam Thai party.

Throughout the week Banharn declined to call the coalition leaders all together to make a prime ministerial choice. He thereby seemed to accentuate a split within his own Chart Thai party since at least one faction of it thought that switching to a Chavalit premiership was the best coalition prospect.

Finally, Banharn set a meeting for Friday, but there was still no discussion of the leadership. Instead, Banharn told his former, but not future, colleagues that he had already obtained the King's agreement to a dissolution, with the polls set for Nov. 17.

Amnuay disclosed that "it was the decision of the premier, who did not consult anyone, not even the secretary-general of his own party".

No picture has yet been circulated of the Banharn announcement. If and when it is, expect to see a sweet smile of revenge on Banharn's face, and suppressed fury on Chavalit's.

Chavalit, who has ambitiously pursued the premiership ever since he stepped down as armed forces chief-of-staff, must be wishing that he had voted for last week's no-confidence motion, after all. Now Chavalit will try to assist the further break-up of Banharn's Chart Thai party but, even then, he is unlikely to emerge from the election leading the largest single party.

A lot of things could change in the next seven weeks, but the present likely benefactor from Banharn's decision to dissolve will be the leader of the Democrat Party, former prime minister Chuan Leekpai. Chuan resigned in 1995 rather than face a vote on a motion of no-confidence but his administration appears positively principled, efficient, and honest compared to Banharn's.

Right now, Banharn appears to have achieved nothing except to postpone his exit from politics for seven weeks. But it would be unwise to write him off completely. Banharn is not known in his home bailiwick as the "walking ATM" (automatic telling machine) for nothing. He is renowned for the way in which he freely throws money at political problems.

His coalition partners did not want another election right now precisely because they are short of funds for this purpose. But if only a few of the allegations of corruption recently voiced against Benharn are actually true, then a plentiful supply of funds will be the least of his own political problems.

Additionally, Banharn will be prime minister, and acting interior minister in his caretaker cabinet during the next seven weeks -- and therefore in charge of actually running and overseeing the election arrangements.

Additionally, he will be hosting scheduled state visits by U.S. President Bill Clinton and Britain's Queen Elizabeth during that period.

Faced with the prospect that a thoroughly discredited prime minister will play host to these distinguished visitors, there are probably not a few Thais wishing that King Bhumibol had refused the request for a dissolution.

Since the monarch could not refuse, Banharn spoke more truly than he knew when he justified his decision in terms of returning "the important mandate of political determination to the people at this turning point".

The election on Nov. 17 will illustrate whether the Thai electorate is determined to stop electing walking ATMS as politicians and prime ministers.

Window: Right now, Banharn appears to have achieved nothing except to postpone his exit from politics for seven weeks. But it would be unwise to write him off completely.