Terrorism exists and may worsen next year: Analysts

Terrorism exists and may worsen next year: Analysts

Debbie A. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The country will have to deal with numerous social, political and
economic problems in 2003 if the government, politicians and
security authorities fail to provide legal certainty and law
enforcement in the country, according to the National Institute
of Sciences (LIPI).

Reflecting on the problems of 2002, LIPI political analysts
and researchers said that the terrorist attacks that had
triggered security disturbances over the last three years were
likely to remain a serious threat in 2003 due to the weakening
religious tolerance and hardships caused by the prolonged crisis.

Ikrar Nusa Bakti, head of LIPI's political research
department, said that fragmentation of power, wealth, resources,
and beliefs would determine the country's life next year since it
was the final stage of the preparation for the 2004 elections.

"Such fragmentation will give rise to the emergence of extreme
groups using terror to achieve their goals," he said.

Ikrar said that terrorist acts which previously were conducted
randomly and without a clear message would find a clearer pattern
next year because the perpetrators had set agenda to achieve
their goals.

"Terror attacks may continue with more focused targets and
understandable messages. For example, there will be suicide
bombings or groups claiming responsibility for terrorist acts
including an open message from the perpetrator -- something that
has never happened before," he said.

Ikrar said that terrorism could be quashed if the government,
the public and security authorities cooperate to fight all forms
of terrorism.

"Terrorism will not end if we only crack down on its network
or tackle the crimes if no measures are taken to cope with the
underlying problems," he said.

Terrorism in Indonesia, according to Ikrar, has a lot to do
with inequity in the political, social and economic fields.

"If we fail to cope with the main problems, this will foster
antigovernment sentiments and certain groups will continue to
take advantage of the difficult situation to fight for their own
interests," he said.

Ikrar believes that with the nation's experience in the Oct.
12 Bali blasts, terrorism would not have a place in the country
if all people join the nationwide effort to fight against
terrorism.

"Defending those who are found guilty for the sake of the good
name of an institution will only produce a backlash which is not
beneficial for the development of conducive security conditions,"
Ikrar added.

M. Toha, head of LIPI's research center for economics, said
that the lack of legal certainty and law enforcement would make
it difficult to achieve economic recovery next year.

The country's economic growth in the second quarter this year
stood at 3.7 percent, dropping significantly from 4.53 percent in
the same period last year. The country needs to have an economic
growth rate of at least 5.5 percent per year to achieve economic
recovery.

"The absence of a conducive business climate has scared
investors away and allowed capital flight to happen. We cannot
develop our economy if terrorism continues," he said.

Toha said that some US$3.9 billion in investment capital had
left the country as of the third quarter this year while the loan
to deposit ratio was still 48 percent.

"It shows that businessmen still lack the confidence to invest
their money or to develop businesses here," he said.

Meanwhile, Yekti Maunati, head of LIPI's research center for
regional resources, said that terrorism and security issues this
year had an adverse impact on the country's tourism industry.

"Bali bombings, bomb threats in several regions, and travel
advisories from several foreign countries have caused the tourism
industry to flop. I'm afraid we will face massive unemployment
soon," she said.

Yekti said that tourism, the third biggest foreign exchange
earner after oil and gas, would face many difficulties next year
if the country could not guarantee security protection for
tourists.

"I believe that through cultural packages, our tourism
industry will revive next year because we have abundance of
cultural resources. But, we cannot do anything if security is
still an issue in the country," she said.