Terrorism exists and may worsen next year: Analysts

Debbie A. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The country will have to deal with numerous social, political and economic problems in 2003 if the government, politicians and security authorities fail to provide legal certainty and law enforcement in the country, according to the National Institute of Sciences (LIPI).

Reflecting on the problems of 2002, LIPI political analysts and researchers said that the terrorist attacks that had triggered security disturbances over the last three years were likely to remain a serious threat in 2003 due to the weakening religious tolerance and hardships caused by the prolonged crisis.

Ikrar Nusa Bakti, head of LIPI's political research department, said that fragmentation of power, wealth, resources, and beliefs would determine the country's life next year since it was the final stage of the preparation for the 2004 elections.

"Such fragmentation will give rise to the emergence of extreme groups using terror to achieve their goals," he said.

Ikrar said that terrorist acts which previously were conducted randomly and without a clear message would find a clearer pattern next year because the perpetrators had set agenda to achieve their goals.

"Terror attacks may continue with more focused targets and understandable messages. For example, there will be suicide bombings or groups claiming responsibility for terrorist acts including an open message from the perpetrator -- something that has never happened before," he said.

Ikrar said that terrorism could be quashed if the government, the public and security authorities cooperate to fight all forms of terrorism.

"Terrorism will not end if we only crack down on its network or tackle the crimes if no measures are taken to cope with the underlying problems," he said.

Terrorism in Indonesia, according to Ikrar, has a lot to do with inequity in the political, social and economic fields.

"If we fail to cope with the main problems, this will foster antigovernment sentiments and certain groups will continue to take advantage of the difficult situation to fight for their own interests," he said.

Ikrar believes that with the nation's experience in the Oct. 12 Bali blasts, terrorism would not have a place in the country if all people join the nationwide effort to fight against terrorism.

"Defending those who are found guilty for the sake of the good name of an institution will only produce a backlash which is not beneficial for the development of conducive security conditions," Ikrar added.

M. Toha, head of LIPI's research center for economics, said that the lack of legal certainty and law enforcement would make it difficult to achieve economic recovery next year.

The country's economic growth in the second quarter this year stood at 3.7 percent, dropping significantly from 4.53 percent in the same period last year. The country needs to have an economic growth rate of at least 5.5 percent per year to achieve economic recovery.

"The absence of a conducive business climate has scared investors away and allowed capital flight to happen. We cannot develop our economy if terrorism continues," he said.

Toha said that some US$3.9 billion in investment capital had left the country as of the third quarter this year while the loan to deposit ratio was still 48 percent.

"It shows that businessmen still lack the confidence to invest their money or to develop businesses here," he said.

Meanwhile, Yekti Maunati, head of LIPI's research center for regional resources, said that terrorism and security issues this year had an adverse impact on the country's tourism industry.

"Bali bombings, bomb threats in several regions, and travel advisories from several foreign countries have caused the tourism industry to flop. I'm afraid we will face massive unemployment soon," she said.

Yekti said that tourism, the third biggest foreign exchange earner after oil and gas, would face many difficulties next year if the country could not guarantee security protection for tourists.

"I believe that through cultural packages, our tourism industry will revive next year because we have abundance of cultural resources. But, we cannot do anything if security is still an issue in the country," she said.