Tension at Taiwan Strait

It is time the world woke up to the dangers of the current hostilities across the Taiwan Strait; and even began seriously considering the consequences of an invasion by Beijing.

That may sound alarmist. Indeed, a military occupation of Taipei remains a remote prospect. Even a naval blockade is unlikely at present. But both must now be considered possible. If tension continues to escalate at its present rate, they may soon enter the realm of the probable -- along with the danger of an accident, real or staged, inadvertently triggering clashes between the two sides.

The world has changed since President Eisenhower threatened to use nuclear weapons to save Quemoy and Matsu from invasion in 1955. Taiwan is not Kuwait. Having refused to use its military might in Bosnia, who could expect the U.S. to do so to save two tiny islands off the Fujian coast. But any military action would involve U.S. forces stationed in Japan and South Korea, and this would put both countries in the dangerous position of being party to a conflict with their most powerful neighbor.

None of this need happen. Certainly, at least for now, such a scenario remains a matter of far-off speculation. But Chinese officials leave no doubt about the extreme seriousness with which they regard the Taiwan issue -- and the leadership may find it increasingly difficult to step back even if it wishes to do so.

-- South China Morning Post, Hong Kong