Talks neede to contain nuclear crisis

Jasper S. Kim, The Korea Herald, Asia News Network, Seoul

The North Korean nuclear crisis has been ongoing since the last decade. Yet despite an international peace agreement between North Korea and the United States (in the form of the 1994 Agreed Framework) and several rounds of six-way talks, the threat of a nuclear standoff still exists.

As a result, the United States is making the North Korean nuclear issue a top priority, and sent Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on an Asian diplomatic tour to put concerted pressure on North Korea to take action. But if such efforts fail, this may signal the abrupt end of the six-way talks, thus escalating the standoff to a potentially more combative level.

In Rice's just-concluded visit to Asia, a clear "carrot-and- stick" approach was used relating to North Korea. The "carrot" was in her statement on March 20 declaring North Korea as a "sovereign state" and the promise of food aid if it cooperates. Official recognition of North Korea as a "sovereign state" was the first such public statement by a senior level U.S. official. The "stick" came in the form of her statement that if North Korea failed to participate in the next six-way talks, the United States reserved the right to seek "other options."

What such "other options" exactly means is unclear. However, the likely result may be a U.S. effort to place economic sanctions on North Korea in front of the international community vis-a-vis a relevant resolution for UN Security Council passage.

North Korea's response to Rice's comments was somewhat predictable. On March 22, just two days afterwards, the North Korean leadership declared it had boosted its nuclear deterrent capabilities. The rationale given was that the recent joint U.S.- South Korean military exercises constituted a precursor to a preemptive military strike against North Korea. The official statement was that Pyongyang "will take necessary countermeasures including the bolstering of its nuclear arsenal to cope with the extremely hostile attempt of the U.S. to bring down the system" in North Korea.

Rice clearly stated that the ball was in North Korea's court, and that its leadership faced a critical crossroads in relation to resolving the standoff. However, if North Korea's recent response of claiming increased nuclear deterrents is any indicator of future events, then the six-way talks have a dim future.

At the same time, the Bush administration is clearly losing patience with the North Korean leadership. Given this, and given the rising tensions relating to the North Korean nuclear crisis, the question then becomes: what happens in the event that the six-way talks end?

In such an event, the United States would have several options. First, it can pursue economic sanctions within the context of the UN Security Council. But for any U.S.-led resolution to pass, both China and Russia would have to decide not to exercise their "veto" power.

Second, the United States could execute a preemptive military or paramilitary strike against the Yongbyon facility, which was believed to house all of North Korea's nuclear weapons around 1994, when the 1994 Agreed Framework was initially brokered. However, in a recent interview, IAEA Director-General Mohammad el-Baradei confessed that he had no knowledge now of exactly where the DPRK leadership housed their alleged nuclear weapons.

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency currently believes North Korea has at least two or more such nuclear weapons. But as possible assurance against such action, both Rice and her predecessor, Colin Powell, publicly proclaimed that the United States "has no intention to attack" North Korea, and that such security assurances could even be given within the context of a six-way nuclear non-proliferation agreement.

Third, the United States could simply do nothing. In other words, it could condone North Korea's nuclear deterrent. But if the United States did this, then it would probably take concerted efforts to isolate North Korea even further, and act to cut off direct aid from the United States to North Korea, as well as from other donors.

In terms of working with South Korea, the United States could decide to continue or even increase joint military exercises with South Korean forces, and provide high-tech military hardware. South Korea could boost its defense budget even more to place pressure on North Korea's military and economic structure.

Even more, the United States may then condone Japanese efforts to amend article 9 of its constitution. Such a constitutional amendment would allow Japan to take a more active military role in the region, creating a post-1945 renewed military self- awareness, which could also have a notable impact on the stability of the region.

Overall, an end to the six-way talks would signal an increasing threat to the peace and security of both the Korean Peninsula and the region as a whole. As the rhetoric between the United States and North Korea escalates, so does the likelihood of the success of the six-way talks to end the standoff.

The writer is professor of international law at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University.