Taking over political parties' constituents

Yanti B. Sugarda, Managing Director, Polling Center, Jakarta

The 1999 General Elections were a historic milestone in the development of democracy here. In the last six general elections, within 30 years, only three parties contested; and in each and every election, whether fairly or not, the Golkar party always came out the winner.

In the 1999 elections, however, 48 political parties took part and for the first time, Golkar did not win. Instead, the much- ostracized-party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-Perjuangan) won. This newly formed sense of democracy prevailed in the 1999 elections, where Indonesian people were given more freedom to decide on who to vote for.

Although there were still some irregularities, it was undeniable that the 1999 elections added a different tone to the development of democracy in Indonesia.

Currently, the nation is on its toes in anticipation of the next elections, tentatively to be held in June 2004. Certainly the nation wants to achieve a better record than in previous elections. Much can be gained from experiences during the 1999 elections, thus, moving on can increase people's confidence in democratic processes.

How can we learn from the 1999 elections? One way is to look at the perceptions, attitudes and behavior of the voting public in the 1999 elections and their expectations for the 2004 elections. The monitoring of public opinion through surveys may form a bridge between policy-makers and the voting public.

A survey has been undertaken to initiate the periodic monitoring of the dynamics of public opinion. The initial survey, Pre-Election Monitoring, conducted jointly by Polling Center and Professional Research Group (GRP) -- as a part of the Public Confidence Index -- was conducted for the first time in August. It covered six provinces, North Sumatra, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java and South Sulawesi.

It was evident that satisfaction in political parties voted for in the 1999 elections was found in less than half of the electorate (47 percent). This conclusion should be seriously considered by large political parties contesting the 1999 elections. Dissatisfied voters will certainly be more careful next time.

During the campaign period, it is usual for parties to make various promises to the public. This habit of producing idealistic promises should be reflected upon by political parties. Indeed, the public has become more skeptical, having witnessed a myriad of past unfulfilled-promises.

Only one-fourth (27 percent) of the respondents stated satisfaction in the delivery of such promises. This shows that electorates are badly in need of parties who are strongly committed. At the very least to the people's cause, before they are entrusted with the nation.

Which political party will the people elect in the upcoming 2004 elections? What are the chances for both the old and the new parties?

A simulated expectation-test was conducted, in which respondents indicated which party they would vote for if the general elections were conducted within the next three months. The results fell into three groups of voters, the loyal voters, the switchers, and the indecisive, or floating mass, (as well as non-voters, or those unwilling to vote).

Figures showed 34 percent were loyal voters or those who would vote for the same party; 16 percent switchers, those who would definitely switch to another party; 36 percent indecisive, those who had made no decision, or did not yet know which party to vote for. Four percent of the respondents did not want to vote at all. Thus, it seems that opportunities for new parties arise within the indecisive population.

Regarding loyalty, it was found that the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) had the most loyal following, followed by PDI- Perjuangan, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Golkar. But the number of loyal PKS constituents was actually lower than the number of loyal PDI Perjuangan constituents.

Among the constituents of these parties, half or more than half were loyal. While among three other big parties -- United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) -- less than half of the constituents were said to be loyal.

These outcomes bring to mind the "People Power" movement in the Philippines, when loyal supporters of Corazon Aquino finally overthrew the absolute government of Marcos. The loyalty of voters and supporters must be preserved and maintained by keeping party policies and programs in line with the public's cause.

It is evident that political parties' low commitment to the cause of the people and to the party's founding statutes have resulted in diminished support.

Naturally it is hoped that parties voted for will fight for the interests of the public. But, in the survey, it was found that as high as 46 percent of voters found that the party they voted for did not represent the interests of the constituents, much less those of the public. - When it came to whether or not the party they had voted for was capable of bringing about changes to advance the nation, it seemed that 54 percent of the electorate did not know or did not think that the party they voted for was capable.

This further describes the weaknesses of political parties in establishing and communicating their programs, in attracting the voting public and in maintaining the allegiance of their supporters and voters.

Promises were left unfulfilled; after campaigns and elections were over, programs were not seriously observed. The result was that the public could not see the importance of the parties' existence nor how the parties' benefited them.

It is a big question, whether the current growth in the number of parties gives the development of democracy in Indonesia a boost. Is it not better to develop the quality of existing parties rather than confusing people by giving them more (uninformed) choices? This just makes it more difficult for them to choose.