Taiwan's name change plan deemd too risky

Richard Halloran, Contributor, Honolulu

In ancient China, a rational sage named Hsun Tzu fashioned what came to be a principle of Chinese thought, the rectification of names. It was vital to clear thinking, Hsun Tzu said, that things be called by the right name.

"All that are alike are given the same name; all that are unalike are given different names," said Hsun Tzu, not to be confused with the strategist Sun Tzu. If things are correctly identified, he said, "There is no longer the danger of people's ideas not being understood or of people's affairs being hampered."

In Taiwan today, Hsun Tzu would applaud a movement that is gathering speed, to change the name of the island's government from the Republic of China to the Republic of Taiwan. Advocates, including President Chen Shui-bian and former President Lee Teng- hui, contend that the Republic of China no longer exists and has renounced its claims to rule all of China.

"Ratifying the country's title emerges as the only pragmatic way to normalize Taiwan's status in the international community," Lee said. "To achieve that, we should replace 'the Republic of China' with 'Taiwan' as its name."

Chen and Lee have long asserted Taiwan has the attributes of a sovereign and independent state that rules only its own island and a few others nearby. Leaders of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland vigorously disagrees and insists that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.

The rectification of Taiwan's name is evidently but one part of a calculated and coordinated campaign intended to move the nation toward a formal declaration of independence, ending any notion that Taiwan will one day be unified with China.

A second element in this campaign is to rely on referendums to resolve fundamental issues, such as whether Taiwan should build a fourth nuclear plant to generate electricity. Beijing fears that referendum could lead to a referendum on independence that would pass. In response, the PRC has pledged to use force to conquer the island if it deems necessary.

Still another component is a call to revise the nation's constitution. President Chen told leaders of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) last week: "Taiwan's future development depends on the creation of a carefully planned and complete Constitutional framework." He set 2006 as a deadline, that being the 20th birthday of the DPP and the 10th anniversary of the first direct election of a president in Taiwan.

All of this does not constitute a sprint toward independence but a deliberate jog to see how far the government in Taipei can go toward independence without provoking mainland China into the military action it has repeatedly threatened.

The danger lies in miscalculation, the greatest cause of war in history. Chen could overstep the mark and provoke China's new president, Hu Jintao, and other Communist leaders even if he didn't intend to. In particular, China's Peoples Liberation Army will not tolerate an unmistakable move toward Taiwan independence.

The response from Beijing so far has been muted. A scholar at the China Institute of International Studies, Guo Zhenyuan, was quoted by the official Xinhua news agency: "The pro-independence remarks have resulted in great damage to relations across the Taiwan Strait." Guo asserted: "Taiwan will be plunged into chaos and problems of all kinds will be intensified if this troublemaker is not stopped."

Washington was equally muted as spokesmen for the Bush Administration brushed off Chen's statements as campaign rhetoric. Chen plans to run for re-election next March. He has denied that his calls for referendum and constitutional revision are intended to lead to independence but are intended to make Taiwan more democratic.

Shelley Rigger, a scholar who specializes in Taiwan, notes, however: "No matter how earnestly he promises to exclude and eschew independence as a referendum topic, PRC leaders believe that Chen is dissembling. Once the machinery of referendums is in place, they fear, the parameters will change and Taiwanese will vote for independence."

On the Constitution, the secretary-general of the DPP, Chang Chun-hsiung, said last week a panel of political leaders and scholars would consider proposals to cut in half the unwieldy national legislature formed in the 1940's when the government ruled all of China. Another topic would be adopting a parliamentary or presidential system instead of the present hybrid government.

And a pro-independence leader of the DPP, Yao Chia-wen, said the panel should consider changing the country's name to Taiwan to distinguish it from the People's Republic of China.

Hsun Tzu would be pleased.

The writer is a former Asia correspondent of The New York Times and a columnist for the Honolulu Advertiser on Sunday.