Taiwan's main opposition fails to mollify China

By Benjamin Kang Lim

BEIJING (Reuters): Soothing comments on Taiwan independence by the island's main opposition party have cut little ice in Beijing, Chinese analysts said on Monday.

The Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate, Chen Shui-bian, took a softer line on relations with China on Sunday, saying the party would not declare independence if called to power in the March election.

But the Chinese Communist Party remains so suspicious of Chen that words alone will make little difference, the analysts said.

"The mainland side will not change its view of Chen Shui- bian's Taiwan independence stand because of his declaration," said Xu Bodong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank.

"It's impossible for the mainland to trust or feel at ease with the DPP or Chen Shui-bian."

In an apparent attempt to avoid scaring away voters, Chen said Taiwan was already a sovereign state and that there was no need to declare the island independent or change its name.

He also said he did not advocate writing into the constitution the so-called "two-states theory" of President Lee Teng-hui, who has enraged Beijing by saying Taiwan would only deal with mainland China as a sovereign equal.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunified with the motherland and has threatened to invade if the island declares statehood.

Last Friday, Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen said Taiwan independence could only mean war.

In Beijing's eyes, the 48-year-old Chen is "an inveterate splittist element", said one Beijing-based Western diplomat.

"China cannot but be suspicious of him," he said. "The mainland is just not going to trust him."

Liu Hong, another researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which advises the government on Taiwan affairs, said a victory by Chen would be China's worst-case scenario.

"If this man comes to power, it will be a kind of provocation, a challenge to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China," Liu said.

"Ties between the two sides will be seriously affected."

Beijing's ambassador to Washington, Li Zhaoxing, has said any of Taiwan's five presidential candidates is acceptable except Chen, a charismatic former mayor of Taipei who has in the past openly advocated Taiwan independence.

Chen is running a close second in Taiwan opinion polls to James Soong who many analysts believe is China's preferred candidate.

"They kind of trust him," Willem van Kemenade, a Beijing-based commentator on China-Taiwan relations, said of Soong.

Soong fled with his family to Taiwan along with the Nationalists after their 1949 civil war defeat at the hands of the communists on the mainland.

Soong, 57, has been ousted from the ruling Nationalist Party for launching a maverick presidential bid to challenge the party's standard-bearer, Lien Chan.

Soong has taken an accommodating position on China. He has vowed to end a five-decades-old ban on direct trade, transport and mail links between the two sides if elected.

About 47,000 Taiwan businessmen have poured US$30 billion into China and have clamored for direct air and shipping links, which are currently routed through Hong Kong or a third country.

Lien, the incumbent vice president, is running third in public opinion polls.

But analysts say he could pull off a come-from-behind victory thanks to the Nationalists' political juggernaut.

The Nationalists could be the world's richest political party, with assets worth $6.5 billion and interests ranging from technology ventures to fisheries.

Lien, 63, a U.S.-dollar billionaire, is closely associated with President Lee, who is reviled by Beijing for trying to break the island out of diplomatic isolation.

But analysts said China would settle for Lien over Chen any time.

"The Nationalists have a record of continuity and stability and war with China can be avoided," said van Kemenade, author of the book "China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Inc".

Lien is seen by many Taiwan voters as dry and colorless, but van Kemenade said Beijing considered him a "safe bet".