Taiwan's dilemma over plans to buy 'Aegis'

By Alice Hung

TAIPEI (Reuters): Taiwan is in a dilemma over plans to buy four U.S. destroyers equipped with the ultra-modern Aegis missile defense system.

One the one hand, the Aegis -- named after the shield used by the mythical Greek god Zeus -- would help contain the threat to the island posed by China.

On the other, it could provoke a belligerent Beijing into the very action the Aegis is supposed to defend against -- or at best plunge ties into a crisis.

"We need the Aegis in the long term. But the Aegis is not the answer to all our problems," said Shu Ching-chiang, director of the Institute of Peace & Strategic Studies at Nan Hua University.

Armed to the teeth with billions of dollars worth of U.S. and French fighters and frigates, Taiwan could give China's 2.5 million-strong People's Liberation Army (PLA) a bloody nose in any conventional conflict.

And the Aegis, mounted aboard Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, could prevent the military balance of power in the Taiwan Strait from tilting in China's favor by 2005, when the PLA increases the number of missiles targeted at Taiwan to 800 from 300 now.

But at US$1 billion apiece, the destroyers -- the most advanced and expensive items on Taiwan's weapons shopping list -- could take eight years or more to put into service.

And even then Taiwan may not have the ability to man them.

President Chen Shui-bian met a group of U.S. congressmen this week and urged Washington to help defend the island's democracy by providing it with necessary defenses.

But in an interview with the Mercury News, Taiwan Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao conceded that any decision to sell the Aegis "could trigger a very severe negative reaction on the part of the Chinese".

Taipei would understand if Washington balks out of concern about how Beijing would react, Tien was quoted as saying.

U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to decide this month how to respond to Taiwan's weapons wish list.

Many in Taiwan believe the island could win sympathy -- or even political mileage -- from the U.S.-China spy plane.

But few analysts said they would be surprised if Washington decided against selling Taiwan the Aegis system this year.

"There is no single, simple answer to whether or not Taiwan will secure the Aegis sales. Nor is any particular answer a fatal blow to Taiwan's security," Joseph Wu and Hsu Szu-chien of the Institute of International Relations wrote in a commentary in the Taipei Times.

"For Taiwan, countermeasures against China's missile threat are not the only way out, and Aegis is not the only way to counter the missile threat," they wrote.

"In fact, a nationwide panic over the prospects of obtaining the ships could pose the greatest threat to national security.

Chinese and Taiwan academics warned not to take China's threat lightly.

"If the United States sells Taiwan excessively advanced weapons, it quite possibly could encourage Taiwan to declare independence and tread down a more risky path," said Guo Xian'gang, a senior researcher at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.

"If that happens, China has no recourse but to take military action," Guo said.

Beijing has threatened to attack Taiwan if the island ever declares independence or even drags its feet on unification talks.

National Taiwan University political scientist Bau Tzong-ho said it would be unwise to underestimate Beijing's reaction.

"We need to consider this from political and military standpoints and weigh all possible risks. Taiwan needs to find a way to strike a balance," Bau said.

"If we think Communist China is prepared to launch a war and we are bracing for an arms race, then we definitely need the Aegis," he said.

"But if we believe it's possible to resolve (differences) through political means, we need to think again."