Taiwan referendum a double-edged sword

Simon Tay & Yeo Lay Hwee, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Tensions have been rising across the Taiwan Strait. With the presidential elections looming, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian proposed a referendum on voters' attitudes toward the mainland. Leaders in Beijing promptly reacted by warning Taipei against any movement toward independence.

U.S. President George W. Bush added his own words of caution to Taipei and many in Asia would agree. With much of the region poised for economic recovery, the last thing people want now is any conflict that would embroil major powers.

Taiwan's economy itself has been in the doldrums and could benefit from stability and growth. Yet some Taiwanese see things differently.

At a recent dialogue among academics and think-tanks, many participants from Taiwan supported the so-called "defensive referendum." They said questions in the referendum do not touch on the island's status. Rather, they concern what voters would want the Taipei government to do if China should use or threaten violence.

Several Taiwanese scholars revealed anxiety, angst and even anger with the Beijing government. Frequently mentioned were the build-up of missiles on the mainland, across the straits from Taipei, and China's "constant threat" and "belligerence."

Some Taiwanese felt that their ASEAN friends lacked understanding and sympathy for them generally, and about the referendum specifically, as most governments in ASEAN follow a "one China'"policy.

Furthermore, Taiwanese seem to feel somewhat isolated in the region, left out from the initiatives for free-trade agreements and the ASEAN Plus 3 process, which brings South-east Asia together with China, Japan and South Korea.

One also senses a general hardening of opinion among some Taiwanese elite about Beijing's intentions, even as their companies continue to expand and invest in the mainland. What does this mean for ASEAN?

One Taiwanese scholar at the meeting claimed that even if the referendum was unwarranted, it was their decision and the Taiwanese people would bear the consequences. In response, an ASEAN scholar pointed out strongly that instability, and even worse, conflict would affect everyone in the region.

The truth is that the referendum is a political tool for the upcoming elections in Taiwan and it is a tool that could prove double-edged. For, while no one would wish China to use threats or force to deal with Taiwan, the nationalistic feelings on the mainland over the issue should not be underestimated.

Just as some Taiwanese elite defend the referendum by emphasizing its part in democracy, one should consider what would happen if China also called for a referendum, asking its people whether they would use force to reunify with Taiwan if peaceful means have been exhausted.

Taiwanese businessmen are often known and admired as risk- takers. President Chen is taking enormous risks too in an effort to bolster his appeal to voters. But he is potentially gambling with stakes beyond his tenure in office. Taiwan's future relations with the mainland, and the peace of the region as a whole, are on the table as well. So who pays if the gamble is lost?

In an informal conversation, one Taiwanese scholar was asked about what he would do if war broke out, if his children would go to the front line or be sent to America or Australia. Jokingly, he replied that the children of many Taiwanese elite do not need to be sent to America or Australia, as they are already there.

Many others on the island, who have no means to acquire a second home or passport, may not share the joke. Neither would Taiwan's ASEAN neighbors.

A government should be free to do what it wants on its own soil, but there are responsibilities to bear in mind when there are negative effects that can affect its people and its neighbors.

Negative effects can be physical, like an outflow of refugees. Other effects may be more subtle, but are no less real, and the 1997 financial crisis was an example of this.

The referendum will go ahead in Taiwan. No one, not even the U.S., can or will convince the government in Taipei otherwise. One can only hope that mainland China will show its growing confidence and maturity in not overreacting to this political show. But the U.S. and others can assist this process by talking to both sides.

In Taiwan's case, dialogue and engagement is needed to break down its sense of isolation and to remind the region that what Taipei does can affect every country here.

Forms of functional cooperation, for instance a free-trade arrangement, can help cement the real economic ties that already exist between Taiwan and ASEAN friends. But these have to avoid becoming political footballs, with too much time and attention spent deliberating things like what name the de facto entity in Taiwan should be called.

Such frankness may not always make for a dialogue that the Taiwanese would welcome, but it is the one that is worth having.

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs; Dr Yeo Lay Hwee is a senior research fellow at the institute.