Taiwan keeps an eye on domestic politics and Hong Kong

By Edward Neilan

TAIPEI (JP): Political leaders in Taiwan would like to unveil an overhauled constitution and wide political reforms by July 1 to give world parliamentarians and political buffs something else to think about besides the handover of Hong Kong to mainland China.

The timetable set by President Lee Teng-hui may yet be met but if it isn't, the culprit will be the very "democracy" which directly elected Lee to the presidency in resounding fashion last June.

Despite the impressive mandate, Lee says he has one hand tied behind his back by the 86-year-old constitution, designed by Sun Yat-sen for post-imperial, agrarian China. But trying to change the document's spirit and letter is no easy matter, with a variety of political voices presenting widely differing views.

Expressions of political science nuances are often made by fisticuffs and Speaker of the National Assembly Fredrick Chien, the astute and urbane former foreign minister, who has twice threatened to resign from the body which exists mainly to change the constitution.

But Taiwan's political forces, however chaotic they may appear at times, have placed Taiwan far ahead of Hong Kong in democratic development. The "Spirit of Hong Kong" which characterized the British colony's open economic mood for many years, could be supplanted by a "Spirit of Taiwan" in democratic and freedom terms. These mood swings cannot be dictated by democratically elected presidents nor by stiff politburos -- they just happen based on events, circumstances and popular feelings.

Little time is spent by Taiwanese residents in congratulating each other over the pace of democracy and in comparison with Hong Kong's parliamentary progress or lack of it, such as Britain's failed eleventh-hour, Hong Kong's attempts and Beijing's hastily arranged provisional legislature for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Naturally, Hong Kong's handover has attracted interest and, like the rest of the world, folks here are waiting to see if Beijing's actions match its words.

The link which residents here don't like to hear on television or read in the press is the cliche that Taiwan is an inevitable "next" in Beijing's hegemonic domino theory -- the routine about Hong Kong handover today, Portuguese-run Macau tomorrow (Dec. 20, 1999) and Taiwan sometime in the future.

One reason Taiwan won't be the easy mark that Hong Kong and Macau have been is that those places have been run by foreigners, Britain and Portugal, respectively. Mainland China needs foreign "interference" to get such things as handovers accomplished, despite protests on the contrary. In Taiwan, "This is my native land," has particular meaning.

Of course, colonies in themselves are anachronistic and should be changed. But one might say that former British colonies have done quite well, such as Singapore and Malaysia. Dare we include Australia, New Zealand and Canada? And what about those pesky 13 British colonies that broke away to form the United States?

And what about Japanese colonies? Scholars Peter Duus, Mark Peattie and Ramon Myers in the United States have written extensively about Japanese colonialism in Korea and Taiwan and the legacy of Tokyo involved in those nations' success stories. And there may be an academic somewhere probing Japan's wartime "colonization" of Hong Kong and other points east.

Some thinking shows that under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong will go from being a British colony to being a colony of Beijing.

"We feel we are in a strong position and will continue to micromanage issues as they come along," said Lyushun Shen, director of the Foreign Ministry's Department of North American Affairs.

"Of course we are concerned about what transpires in Hong Kong but in certain ways the change gives us new opportunities. They (the mainland) need us as a nationalism issue, not to mention for our economic contribution to their growth."

Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and editor of that think tank's journal Issues and Studies, Ho Szu-yin said, "For the next decade, Beijing does not have the capability to take over Taiwan by force. They may apply old- fashioned diplomatic pressure but we have already survived that. We welcome competition in the realm of new thinking. But are they up to it?"

Lin Chao-Tsan, director of information for the Straits Exchange Foundation, the supposedly nongovernmental body that conducts face-to-face negotiations with a mainland counterpart known as the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait said: "Sometimes we find that businessmen are far ahead of both governments in finding solutions to practical matters like shipping. We may see this syndrome push the question of direct flights more rapidly than expected."

The new democratic atmosphere in Taiwan has prompted more and more politicians to think in terms of an American image, including popularity polls. Deputy director of the Kuomintang (KMT) Party's Department of Cultural Affairs, Mu Ming-chu, chided former justice minister Ma Ying-jeou's decision to resign from his post and become a minister without a portfolio despite soaring personal popularity. Mu said: "Ma needs to stay in the trenches and fight the political fight like a man. He can't get ahead on a 'resign' policy."

Another female politician, Yang May-sing, is one of the firebrands of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and has recently switched from party foreign affairs leadership to directorship of its financial affairs committee. She thinks that when the next presidential election rolls around in 2000, the DPP's Chen Shui-bian (now Taipei's mayor) will be a leading candidate.

"If not then, he may run the following time," said Yang, who like fellow party members has softened an earlier "pro-Taiwan Independence" line. "The fact is that by 2004 there won't be many active KMT mainland-born politicians still in the picture."

Of the dozen government officials, politicians, academics, businesspeople and journalists I spoke to during a week's visit, all strongly stated Taiwan's close ties with the United States. There was also positive talk about Japan's role in Taiwan's future. Of the dozen, all visit the United States frequently and nine hold Ph.D degrees from American universities, which says more about the U.S.-Taiwan relationship than a page of analysis.

One of those Ph.D holders, a professor of political science at a leading Taiwan university, has his own ideas about what to do the next time mainland China rattles missiles or threatens Taiwan militarily.

"We know China cannot sustain a military threat without risking war with the U.S. Seventh Fleet, which it cannot defeat. The best advice is to buy Taiwan Stock Exchange blue chip shares when the first missile test firing takes place. The shares will plummet on the first firings but will rebound for a profit when China cannot follow. In a word, 'Buy!'"

Ah, the benefits of a higher education in the U.S., mixed with "Asian values".

The writer is a Tokyo-based veteran analyst of Northeast Asian affairs and a Media Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

Window: One reason Taiwan won't be the easy mark that Hong Kong and Macau have been is that those places have been run by foreigners, Britain and Portugal, respectively.