Taiwan goes for caution

The people of Taiwan have used their recently unsilenced democratic voice to proceed in a cautious and conservative way on the defining issue of relations with the mainland is welcome. China has 600 missiles pointed at Taiwan across the strait, and regards even the most symbolic movement towards declared statehood -- including the use of the word "Taiwan" on passports or foreign embassies -- as provocative.

Yet it would take great provocation indeed for China to risk war with Taiwan's great and good friend, the U.S. And the fact President George W. Bush rebuked Chen a year ago over the referendum issue shows the U.S. -- which also has a defining relationship to manage with China -- is equally reluctant to allow the Taiwan issue to flare.

All of Australia's interests lie in the direction of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is our eighth-largest trading partner. China is our third-largest export market, and in October overtook the U.S. as our largest source of imports. As reported in The Weekend Australian, we are proceeding towards a deepening military relationship with Japan, whose growing assertiveness, along with the status of Hong Kong, are existing sources of potential destabilization for China and the region.

But the good news is that the economic relationship between China and Taiwan -- worth about $65 billion in trade annually -- has continued to power ahead even as the political relationship has frayed. Indeed, it is trade with the mainland that has dragged Taiwan out of recession this year and most likely caused the softening of independence sentiment among voters.

Taiwan's vigorous, fledgling democracy is one of the jewels of the region and must be nurtured and protected. But the interest for all nations involved is for the status quo between Taiwan and China to be maintained. This may not be perfect, but the alternatives look far worse. -- The Australian, Sydney