Syria's reformers feel old guard backlash

By Samia Nakhoul

DAMASCUS (Reuters): A Damascus socialite who recently sent her friends a bawdy caricature of Syrian President Bashar Assad on the Internet has been jailed.

A member of parliament who demanded reform of Syria's ossified political system has been threatened with prosecution.

A Syrian writer was harshly beaten last month for hosting lectures on how to establish a "civil society".

Political discussion forums that sprang up after 35-year-old Bashar took office last July following the death of his father President Hafez Assad have been suspended.

Hopes in Syria of a political spring and growing liberalism after three decades of Assad senior's iron rule have taken a battering. The old guard appear to be striking back.

Baathist ideologues, supporters of the ruling party, have barged uninvited into meetings held by reformists, sparking shouting matches and intimidation.

"There was definitely a new political mood in Syria, but there are clearly limits. A limit is anything that would cause instability. It is vaguely defined in the eyes of the authorities," one Damascus-based diplomat told Reuters.

Parliament member Riad Seif, an outspoken government critic, said organizers of discussion forums had been told they had to get official permission and provide names of participants and topics to be discussed in advance -- effectively stifling them.

The forums had witnessed unprecedented calls for democracy in Syria, free elections, the suspension of martial law in force for almost four decades, the release of political prisoners and an end to the ruling Baath party's stranglehold on power.

Seif's demand that a committee be set up to draft a new constitution was seen by the authorities as a threat to overturn Baathist supremacy granted in the 1973 constitution.

The forums, which had drawn a wide audience, were held within the framework of reforms pledged by Assad junior.

But officials said they had overstepped the mark by trying to portray Syria's recent past in a bad light. They also seem to have irked the authorities by hosting diplomats and journalists.

In his seven months in power, Bashar, an ex-army officer and British-educated eye doctor, has pardoned political prisoners and allowed critics of the government to circulate petitions -- an act that would have drawn swift punishment from his father.

But in the past week the old guard have given notice that the reformists had tested their tolerance to the limit.

A group of senior government officials and Baath Party leaders, led by Vice-President Abdel Halim Khaddam, launched a counter-offensive, holding rallies across Syria to trumpet the accomplishments of the last 30 years.

Khaddam said the liberals had "crossed the red lines which are the stability and security of society" and were "abusing the freedom granted to them in order to sabotage the regime".

"It is not the right of any citizen to destroy the foundations that the society is built on. Freedom does not permit destruction," Khaddam said at Damascus University.

He rejected any dialog with the reformists, accusing them of "incriminating the regime" and pushing Syria towards civil war.

"We will not tolerate attempts to transform Syria into another Algeria or Yugoslavia," he said.

Diplomats and analysts say Bashar faces a tough task in meeting high expectations on political reforms from inside and outside, given the authoritarian nature of Baathist rule.

"The question is not whether the reforms promised by Bashar were genuine but what is possible in Syria," one diplomat said.

"It is not easy for him as a young president coming after his father, as a continuation of the family dynasty, to work freely. The system is bound to limit his freedom of maneuver. He has to proceed cautiously."

"The forces of restraint are considerable. Bashar inherited his father's security apparatus. The old guard is still in power. There are political complications and serious inhibitions," said another diplomat.

Analysts say Bashar needs to keep still-powerful figures from the past inside to enable him to change antiquated laws as part of his drive to modernize Syria's command economy.

"He wants them to help him deal with the creaky old structure. He does not want to cause instability and upheavals. He adopts restraint as he moves forward," one said.

The analysts believe that President Hafez Assad died before he was able to finish preparing the ground for his son by removing future obstacles to his exercising real power.

"You cannot dream of having vast reforms with the old guard still in place. Bashar was doing all this quietly in the shadow of his father, but his father's death came very early in that process. This gave back a lot of clout to the conservatives."

One Syrian reformist said a backlash was predictable from "those who had monopolized, exploited and benefited from power and authority", but said they could only delay change.

"The journey is difficult and complex. There is no way back, it is irreversible," the reformist said.

But whatever degree of political freedom the government is prepared to allow, the optimism that followed Bashar's accession to power has evaporated. At least for now, a sharp frost may have nipped the "Damascus spring" in the bud.