Syrian elite to give Bashar only qualified support

By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

DAMASCUS (Reuters): Bashar al-Assad has been showered with flowery endorsements as Syria's next president but he can count on only qualified support from a powerful elder generation that prefers stability over reform, diplomats say.

The ruling Baath Party, holding its first congress in 15 years, unanimously elected Bashar on Sunday as "the leader of the march of the party and the people".

It was the fourth heavyweight title accorded to Bashar little more than a week after the sudden death of his father and longtime president, Hafez al-Assad, at the age of 69.

Assad had ensured that his 34-year-old son, an eye doctor with no experience in government, would inherit his rule by purging the army and intelligence services of senior officers who could have blocked his ascendancy.

The regional command of the Baath party, effectively a politburo, nominated Bashar for the presidency after the June 12 death of Assad, who had ruled for 30 years. Bashar then became a general and head of the armed forces.

The new leadership title combining the party and government would looked like a ringing endorsement -- it had been endowed on his father in 1971. But on Bashar, it embodied expectations of a continued status quo he might find it hard to escape from.

"This decision means an affirmation of renewal based on continuing and modernizing the base of stability," read the official announcement proclaiming Bashar as the new leader.

"It means continuous transformation by preserving principles, and the modern and scientific treatment of the issue of progress, based on basics strengthened through our experiment of struggle," the Soviet-like statement said.

This emphasis on stability is worrying diplomats who had hoped Bashar would be able to break free to some degree from an old guard that dominates the statist politburo and the older generation who comprised most of the congress delegates.

"They bowed to Bashar like a king, but they did so not from the heart but to keep vested interests. He now has to compromise with the power brokers," said a senior diplomat.

On Monday the proceedings of the congress were suddenly extended and the election of a new politburo was postponed.

Up to Sunday night the information ministry was saying that the final session would go ahead on Monday. Then officials said it was delayed until Tuesday because discussions of various reports had not been completed.

They said Bashar had taken center stage and became the main figure of the conference. The Baath party newspaper said the prominence of Bashar prevented a power vacuum and displayed a united front behind him.

But analysts said this view did not preclude debate between the supporters of Bashar and the dominant elder generation of the father that backs the son more reluctantly.

In the last year of Assad's rule Bashar became identified with steps to corral corruption that claimed two members of the politburo: former prime minister Mahmoud Zu'bi and former chief of staff Hekmat Shahabi.

Hafez al-Assad had intended to oversee the election of a new politburo, a task now falling to the less influential Bashar. Departures are likely to be less willing.

According to information leaked from the conference, the more enthusiastic supporters of Bashar demanded the removal of most of the regional leadership who they regarded as responsible for Syria's economic decline and backwardness.

"What we wish from our comrades who are meeting is to pay attention to and decide on the subject of renewal, and supply Syria with sincere new blood," said an editorial in Tishreen, the state-run newspaper that is closest to Bashar.

Tishreen has been full of Baath party figures indicating economic malaise -- inflation that averaged 16.1 percent annually between 1985 and 1998, growth that barely kept pace with population and exports that represented only 65 percent of imports a year during the same period.

Bashar will have to tread carefully, also when addressing the economy. Clean government and deregulation would subject companies owned by the oligarchy under him to competition.

He retains strong support among younger technocrats and a progressive business class that are likely to be represented in the 21-member politburo. Most bets are on a two-third, one-third split, with the old guard retaining the minority of the seats.

But the diplomat cautioned: "Bashar was walking on an anti- corruption axis under his father that he will find harder to maintain after his death."