Syria tightening its grip on Lebanon

By Miral Fahmy

BEIRUT (Reuters): Syria is consolidating its grip on Lebanon by ensuring, even before the votes are cast, that loyalists will pack the new parliament in Beirut after elections that start next week.

Analysts and opponents of the Beirut government and outgoing parliament, in office with Syrian blessing, say they have helped Damascus keep its hold on Lebanese politics by playing electoral games familiar since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

They have charged the authorities with once again gerrymandering and maneuvering to turn Lebanon's third post-war parliamentary election into a formality.

"The next parliament has, as usual, already been decided by the maestro who decides everything in this country," said Hassan Krayim, head of the Lebanese Association for Democracy of Elections, an independent observer of the polls.

"Ninety-five percent of the results have already been decided by Lebanon and Syria long before the elections will be held, transforming the polls into a tedious farce," said Krayim, a professor at the American University of Beirut.

The 1990 Taif accord that ended the civil war by redistributing power between Christians and Muslims gave Syria the chance to institutionalize its hold over Lebanon.

Syria, which backed almost all factions at various times in the 25-year sectarian conflict, put its loyalists in high places and ensured that parliament was under its thumb.

Pro-Syrian deputies elected in 1992 made sure the accord, which called for Syrian troops to leave Lebanon after the first post-war poll, was not implemented in full.

Since then, the house has elected presidential candidates approved by Damascus and drafted electoral laws paving the way for Syria-friendly candidates to win seats in the 128-member house, which is strictly divided along sectarian lines.

Voters going to the polls in two rounds on Aug. 27 and Sept. 3 will choose candidates from constituency lists that according to Nicholas Nassif, a columnist with the leading An-Nahar daily, Syria helped to draw up.

"Syrian officials seemed very interested, no, involved, in dividing up the constituencies and other aspects of the election to maintain the interests of their Lebanese allies," he said.

"However, these Syrian officials have informed the Lebanese they will not interfere in the elections and that they will remain neutral. For that we must give thanks."

Analysts said they detected a Syrian hand in the electoral alliance of two Shi'ite Muslim groups, the Amal movement of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbollah, whose fighters forced Israel to end its 22-year occupation of the south in May.

Krayim argued that the Israeli withdrawal had given an added edge to Syrian meddling in the election.

"The Syrians are uncertain about relaxing their control over Lebanon, particularly now that the Israelis are gone. They want to determine the next government, the next step in relations.

"They believe the next confrontation will be the departure of their troops from Lebanon and they want to avoid it," he said. Syria has about 35,000 troops stationed in Lebanon.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his late father Hafez al-Assad, has said Damascus is seeking a more equitable relationship with its neighbor.

But analysts predicted it would at least take a peace deal between Syria and Israel, which has occupied the Golan Heights since 1967, for Damascus to reconsider its relationship with Beirut.

Opposition politicians and some Christians say Syrian involvement in the elections undermines Lebanon's political standing and tears another rent in what they see as its tattered sovereignty.

Three Christian movements active in the war have urged all Lebanese to join their boycott of the elections, saying they are rigged by the Syrians. The groups, which include supporters of former army chief Michel Aoun, have not contested the polls since 1990.

Other prominent candidates, such as maverick deputy Najah Wakim, have withdrawn in disgust. Gibran Tueni, editor-in-chief of An-Nahar and a staunch opponent of Syrian involvement, described the elections as a conspiracy against Lebanon.

"We just can't believe that what is happening today is not part of a plot aimed at displaying Lebanon as a politically immature nation unable to run a civilized election," he wrote in a recent editorial. "That's why we hear that the elections have not been swayed by outside forces. We don't buy that."

Some candidates, such as former presidential candidate Boutros Harb, have decided to fight the system from within.

"These are not the elections I would like to see in Lebanon. They are more like a carnival than a democratic process," said Harb. "But as long as Lebanon is not a sovereign, independent country, then we will shout and fight and make sure that we are heard. What better place to do it than right in the lion's den?"