Syria may become a fresh trouble spot in Mideast

Marianna Belenkaya, RIA Novosti, Moscow

Syria will feature prominently throughout Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's forthcoming tour of the Middle East, because the situation around it determines developments in the entire region.

On Oct. 25, the Detlev Mehlis commission will report to the UN Security Council on the findings of its investigation into the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

David Welch, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said recently: "I expect that this (report) will be another occasion when the international community is going to send the very strongest of signals to the Syrians about their misbehavior."

These words are consistent with previous U.S. statements. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Syria a big problem for the United States, while President George W. Bush in his anti-terrorist speech blamed "authoritarian regimes" like Syria and Iran for giving refuge to Islamic extremists.

The Iranian problem is much more transparent. The U.S. has charged Iran with involvement in military nuclear programs, but so far this issue is being resolved within the IAEA. Both the IAEA and the European Union guarantee that it can be settled diplomatically. The situation around Syria is much more complicated. Except for verbal support on the part of Arab countries, Damascus does not have any protection. Charges against it are so vague that it is not even clear what can be negotiated and with whom.

The U.S. has a long list of claims to Syria: support for the Islamic terrorists in Iraq, which they are penetrating from Syrian territory; interference in the domestic affairs of Lebanon; and negative influence on Palestinian-Israeli settlement, where Syria is blamed for backing Palestinian extremists. All these accusations are hurled at Syria for having an "undemocratic regime".

Of this list the Hariri case is the only real possibility for accusing Syria of "misbehavior". But it hasn't yet been used so far. There is no evidence of Syrian complicity in Hariri's assassination. Syrian sources quote Detlev Mehlis as having said more than once that he has no claims to Syria. True, the absence of evidence does not mean the end of the investigation. Sources say that Mehlis has made some hints about U.S. exerting pressure on him.

Everyone remembers the situation in the UN Security Council before the war in Iraq, when then-Secretary of State Colin Powell implicated Iraq in developing weapons of mass destruction. His evidence turned out to be a bluff.

Indeed, Syria and Israel are mortal enemies, but their common frontier is Israel's quietest border. As for the Syrian border with Iraq, Damascus claims to have done everything possible to close it from its side. But it takes two to tango. The Syrians say that the frontier is not protected from the Iraqi side. Syria has even asked the U.S. and Britain to supply night-vision devices and other military equipment for border protection, but its request has remained unanswered.

It is common knowledge that those who live near the border will always find a way to cross it, regardless of any fortifications. Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari said that Baghdad and Washington had ignored all Syrian requests to quote at least one example of terrorists sneaking into Iraq from Syrian territory. It looks like they are merely trying to shift the blame for their own failures in Iraq onto Syria by accusing it of growing terrorist activities in the neighboring country.

Syria is also charged with backing some Palestinian groups. This is a special issue and should be analyzed in the general context of Palestinian-Israeli settlement, where Syria indisputably occupies a special place. But all those who find refuge on Syrian territory are closely watched by the local secret services, and are barred from any political activities.

Russian sources say that Moscow has always trusted Damascus in this context, even though Russia is suspicious and negative about terrorist activities in some other countries in the region. Russia's opinion on this score is trustworthy if only because dissemination of terrorist activities under Muslim banner is the last thing it wants. The secret services of other countries could also establish similar cooperation with Syria.

The final issue is the "undemocratic regime". But other countries of the region also fit in into this category, including U.S. allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In effect, Syria is much less "undemocratic". In the last five years, President of Syria Bashar al-Assad has initiated a number of political and economic reforms. They are going slowly, but are quite obvious nonetheless. It is the pressure exerted on Syria that is impeding the political process there.

Washington's motives behind the war in Iraq are clear enough. Oil is one of them. But most experts are perplexed about its motives when it comes to Syria. With the current political and economic changes, Damascus could become a reliable partner of Washington without any pressure.

If the al-Assad regime is undermined, Syria will become a second Iraq. The lack of logic in this situation is one of the most destabilizing factors in the Middle East.