Syria-Israeli talks provide fresh hope

By Detlef Franke

FRANKFURT (DPA): A fresh breeze is blowing in the Middle East. The calm that beset the peace process has ended since Ehud Barak took over as Israeli prime minister in July.

So-called final status negotiations with the Palestinians have begun, and on Wednesday the winds of change brought Barak and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa face to face in Washington.

Peace talks between Israel and Syria, halted for over three years, are under way again, and progress is being made once more in the Middle East, at times arduously, at times haltingly, and at times in a great leap forward.

Both sides stand to benefit from the peace talks succeeding. For Israel, a peace treaty with Syria would mean that Israel had safe external borders with all its Arab neighbors for the first time in its existence.

The Golan Heights would be returned to Syria. The European Union and the United States would be likely to offer economic aid in return for cooperative behavior on Syria's part. And peace with Israel would be a sound precondition for settling the succession to ailing 70-year-old Syrian President Havez Asad.

Asad is in a much better position to agree to peace terms with Israel than his likely successor (and son), Bashar al-Asad, who can be sure to encounter initial resistance in Syria itself.

But both sides still have a long way to go even though it may well have been more difficult to get the stalled talks going again than it might be to bring them to a successful conclusion.

Israel would also have to withdraw its troops from the so- called security zone in southern Lebanon, as heralded by Barak on assuming office. To do so is a political decision that is popular in Israel, but it does involve risks.

The agenda for the talks, which will first be held in the United States and later in the Middle East, will comprise the "four legs of the table" that were discussed in the first round of talks in 1995 and 1996: territory, security, normalization and timetables.

The key to peace lies in an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, taken by Israel in 1967. Barak has occasionally repeated his late predecessor Yitzhak Rabin's call for the "depth of withdrawal" to correspond to the "depth of peace."

Hitherto, Syria has insisted on a return to the borders as they stood on June 4, 1967, whereas Barak would like to hold talks on the basis of minor border corrections in the area of Lake Galilee.

Israel has also called for total demilitarization of the Golan, for the stationing of United Nations peacekeepers and for the retention of "early warning stations" on Mount Hermon.

Syria might now be prepared to accept these terms, but the two sides are likeliest to agree to terms on normal relations, open borders, the exchange of ambassadors and close economic relations.

Israel would prefer to take its time in withdrawing its forces from the Golan and to link each phase of withdrawal to the implementation of Syrian commitments, whereas Syria would prefer a shorter time-scale.

The peace agreement is also to include agreement on water rights. Both sides want control over the tributaries that feed the River Jordan, but are prepared to share its water. The job of overseeing the distribution of this vital resource might arguably be entrusted to the United States or the United Nations.

Negotiations between Israel and Syria are sure to have repercussions on the final status talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat already views the rapprochement between Israel and Syria with mixed feelings.

Pressure to bring the final status talks to a successful conclusion within the time-scale laid down in the Wye accords will grow with each successive step forward in the talks between Israel and Syria.

Arafat knows only too well that Barak, if talks with Syria were to come to a successful conclusion, would be in a better position to face with equanimity Palestinian demands for further Israeli withdrawals from the West Bank, for the dissolution of Jewish settlements there, and for any kind of Palestinian sovereignty in East Jerusalem.

But Barak is by no means home and dry with his peace policy. He has promised his fellow-countrymen a referendum on a peace treaty with Syria, and the Israeli opposition has already branded a withdrawal from the Golan Heights treason.

Crossfire is likely from the ranks of Barak's complicated ruling coalition too.

The 17,000-odd Jewish settlers in the Golan area have already said that they will resist withdrawal and can be sure to demand a high price in return for evacuating the territory.

Yet despite the opposition that can be expected, there are good reasons why all sides should want to end over 50 years of confrontation in the Middle East.

With a great deal of goodwill on the part of the parties directly involved, combined with a little pressure and financial assistance offered by the sole remaining superpower, the United States, peace should be agreed in the region.

The outlook for comprehensive peace in the Middle East has not for many years been as good as it is right now.