Synthetic 'people power' won't work

Amando Doronila, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Asia News Network, Manila

Mass organizations which coalesced in 2000-2001 in the Estrada resign movement and those which were identified with the mob attack on May 1, 2001, are going back to the streets in the run- up to the first anniversary on Jan. 20 of the fall of former President Estrada's administration.

They are going back to the streets for different reasons, but some of them share the common objective of seeking to topple the administration of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo by creating a synthetic People Power IV. Former allies of Arroyo, like the retired generals who were outspoken against Estrada, the Philippine Consultative Assembly (PCA) and left-wing organizations are going to celebrate Jan. 20 by expressing their disaffection with the administration they helped install to power.

Jan. 20, is the day for People Power II forces, but pro- Estrada forces, mainly the People's Movement Against Poverty, are observing the event with a series of demonstrations by revisiting signposts marking the road of Estrada's fall from power. The retired generals, shadowy groups in the military and the PCA are fueling talks of a coup d'etat, and some are even embracing the idea of a civilian-military junta to replace the Arroyo administration.

What is incongruous about these attempts to recreate another people power is rebuilding a mass movement through a synthetic replication of the elements of People Power I and People Power II, and even People Power III, out of conditions that fuel successful street demonstrations. To begin with, there is no widespread unrest, anger against a sitting government and escalating rallies that drove the momentum of People Power I and II.

There is no consuming issue that drives the people to rage -- such as the massive corruption of both the Marcos and Estrada regimes, the murderous human rights atrocities of the Marcos regime and the gross incompetence of the Estrada administration.

True, there are allegations of corruption hurled at the Arroyo administration, but they are wanting in proof; and, in fact, because there is no proof, the attacks on the government have shifted to the charges that the President is politicking too much to win points for reelection in 2004, subordinating public interest to her reelection ambitions.

Every president of this country, since Emilio Aguinaldo, with the possible exception of Corazon Aquino, wanted to lengthen his stay in power. This is a healthy ambition because it provides incentives to deliver results. This ambition becomes dangerous if a sitting president seeks to extend his stay in office in contravention of the constitutional ban, and it is curious that the PCA head, Salvador Enriquez, former President Fidel V. Ramos' budget secretary, is the most virulent in the criticism against Arroyo's politicking.

Ramos went to the extent of trying to change the Constitution so he could stand for reelection. Enriquez needs more than sweeping allegations that Arroyo's politicking had prejudiced public interest, thereby justifying her removal by a coup d'itat and replacement with a civilian-military junta. It must be shown what public interest has been sacrificed.

The disgruntled groups which were former allies of Arroyo in the broad coalition to oust Estrada have not found a cementing issue against this administration. They will be sharing the streets in the commemoration of Edsa II with pro-Estrada groups, and there's nothing in common between them. Jan. 20 is not the day for the Estrada cohorts.

Their day is May 1, but they can't wait. But like the disgruntled former allies of Arroyo, they are all interested in stirring up discontent, in the vain hope that the genie of people power will reawaken and recompose into People Power IV. They are indulging in wishful thinking.

While there are allegations of corruption in the Arroyo administration, it requires credible evidence to drive people to the streets, cause the Army to make a soul-searching of whether to remain loyal to a venal government, and erode public confidence in government strategic sectors of society. The Singson expose, which produced serious evidence leading to the impeachment trial of Estrada, provided the fuse that triggered the fall of his administration.

This is the kind of proof that could spark another people power -- not just reckless allegations hurled by disgruntled groups which like to think they have been commissioned by God to unseat the government, whose expectations for reform have been disappointed. Some civil society groups may have initiated the Erap resign movement with the exclamation mark campaign, but the drive fizzled out and the movement did not take off until serious proof of corruption was disclosed by Chavit Singson.

This fuse cannot be invented by recreating laboratory conditions simulating people power. Army intervention follows only the appearance of evidence of mass discontent and demonstrations. Recruitment in the Army for the support of civilian malcontents and their messianic causes is nothing new. What is important is whether soldiers will switch allegiance on the basis of unfounded and reckless allegations from groups who have felt unrewarded by the government they helped install.

The record shows that the Arroyo administration's performance is far from inspiring or impressive. There is widespread disenchantment with her, as well as with legislators, both in the majority and in the opposition, as shown by recent public opinion polls. These are hard times; many expect miracles, but results do not happen by perpetuating the habit of changing governments musical chairs-style.

There is no objective condition upon which a coup or People Power IV will succeed, and this is not to say that President Arroyo should not lift her game. If, by a remote chance, another people power topples a government in a space of one year, this country will sink back to a deeper hole than it found itself in December 2001 and all the meager economic gains (3-percent growth of gross domestic product growth) will just evaporate.