Suu Kyi still provides hope for Myanmarese struggle

The release on July 10 of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has injected new hope into the Myanmarese struggle. Yindee Lertcharoenchok writes on the latest political development in that country. This is the first of two articles.

BANGKOK: After nearly six years of house arrest, Myanmar's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi triumphantly emerged recently to declare to the cheering world that her resolve and commitment to pursue the non-violent struggle for democracy and human rights have never been weakened by the unlawful incarceration and nerve- breaking separation from her beloved family.

More joyful was her discovery that the Myanmarese people, whom she has devoted her life to, are as determined as ever to fight along with her despite years of severe crackdown and repressive laws imposed by the country's military junta known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC).

The unwavering popular support and love given to the 1991 Nobel Peace laureate, evident this week in Rangoon and across the globe, are clearly indicative that SLORC's unsparing efforts over the years to erase Suu Kyi from the people's minds were futile.

But sensing the persuasive power and the gift of communication she has with the Myanmarese people, amid the possibility of a backlash from the SLORC, Suu Kyi immediately pleaded with them to pursue their cause the "Patience and courage."

"You must have patience and courage, and control yourselves," is the message she repeats at every given opportunity to crowds of supporters who gather everyday at the front gate of her residential compound on University Avenue. The courageous daughter of Myanmar's independence hero Aung San is still as popular as ever.

The SLORC on July 10 surprised the world with its unexpected decision to release the 50-year-old political figure. Considering the military junta's past records, many believe Suu Kyi's release was well calculated with time and was not without hidden motives.

Suu Kyi, who expressed no surprise that the SLORC has completely blacked-out her release from local media, simply said, "I think they thought probably this is the right time because I should have been released three years ago. They changed the law. I should have been released last year but interpretation of the law has been changed to hold me further."

"They would have had to change the law again to hold me further. Legally this is the right time," she said.

The charismatic leader, whose selfless personal sacrifice has been a ray of hope and political inspiration for the peace loving Myanmarese people, said she "must work out which I think is the right answer" but believes that "international opinion always counts."

While Myanmarese opposition movements and diplomats believe that the SLORC ceded to international pressure, ASEAN capitals were quick to claim that their controversial "constructive engagement" policy played a key role in securing Suu Kyi's freedom.

Myanmar watchers point to the combination of both pressure and upcoming international events as important factors for the regime's change of heart. Possible tougher measures and condemnation from western countries including a pending U.S. economic sanction bill, and the likelihood of the Clinton Administration downgrading its diplomatic relations with Myanmar to support its arguments, were all cited by the observers.

Besides these, the SLORC delegation which is due to attend the upcoming ASEAN Ministerial Meeting later this month, would have been grilled by the regional grouping's Western dialog partners. The United Nations, where the SLORC still occupies Myanmar's seat, was even contemplating a strongly-worded diplomatic statement against Suu Kyi's prolonged imprisonment.

But ASEAN, as always, has attributed the move and other "positive" political developments in Myanmar to the policy of "constructive engagement," which, they claim, is aimed at encouraging the SLORC to engage in dialog with the World community. Critics, however, argue that the ASEAN policy was devised to allow the regional grouping to economically exploit the rich natural resources of the Southeast Asian nation.

Interestingly, a number of western envoys and diplomats have been visiting Suu Kyi's home since Tuesday, joining the waves of well-wishers, the opposition leader's political colleagues and supporters, and hordes of local and foreign journalists.

"Diplomats from Myanmar's neighboring countries were conspicuously absent," noted a member of the diplomatic corps, who was present at Suu Kyi's news conference. The diplomat did not name the countries.

"Most diplomats were impressed by her patience and self- composure, despite the fact that she had less than 24 hours to prepare herself for this (press conference), she still behaved (conducted the interviews and meetings) like a head of state," commented the same diplomat.

At the height of the 1988 nationwide pro-democracy uprisings in Myanmar, while European envoys flocked to Suu Kyi's house to consult with her and other politicians on their political views and agendas, those from China, Laos, Thailand and other ASEAN member states ignored and shunned contact with Suu Kyi. Instead, they belittled her in the same manner as the military rulers, saying she had no proper understanding of Myanmarese politics, as she had lived most of her life abroad and is married to a foreigner. They also questioned her popularity among the Myanmarese people.

Some analysts in Thailand who have been closely monitoring the evolving political scenario in Myanmar, however, have ruled out external factors, saying the SLORC has "an unbroken record" of never bowing to public international pressure or threat. Instead, they say, the regime with a devious hand has been able to twist- and-turn domestic affairs and international events to suit their own will and agenda.

The analysts who include some Thai intelligence officers believe that the SLORC has, over the years, grown militarily stronger. They believe the military junta is confident it has the domestic situation very much under control.

In fact they argue, Suu Kyi's freedom has automatically averted, at least for the time being, mounting international outcry and the planned tough actions against the regime.

"The SLORC, in fact, has more to gain than lose from the release which was well timed, taking into account both domestic and international factors. Once again the SLORC is going to score some marks and also get away with it," said one officer.

-- The Nation, Bangkok