Tue, 02 Nov 2004

Susilo, regional affairs and lessons from Sukarno

Michael Vatikiotis, Bangkok

Now that Indonesia has a president who looks like a hands-on leader rather than a symbolic figurehead, it's time for the country to revive its role in regional and world affairs. This is important, because without Indonesia's presence and responsible leadership, Southeast Asia's chemistry is thrown out of balance and it becomes a region diminished in the eyes of the world.

More broadly, without Indonesia, the non-Muslim world finds it hard to imagine Muslim society as tolerant and secular.

Just look what happened when Indonesia was out of the picture. While Indonesia was preoccupied with economic crisis and a messy transition to democracy these past six years, ASEAN lost the economic weight it once had.

China's economy boomed and sucked in investment on the back of cheap labor and its massive market. ASEAN became a margin play largely because Indonesia, its largest market and cheapest pool of labor, was branded a basket case.

When the war on terror broke out after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington, Indonesia was initially held up as the shining example of a pluralistic Muslim society in contrast to the fractured Middle East. But weak government, factional infighting and an appallingly lax legal framework in Indonesia allowed a tiny band of militants to open a new front in the war on terror in Southeast Asia.

Indonesians can put this reckless and tragic interlude behind them so long as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono now focuses on rebuilding Indonesia's international credibility and economic vitality. This above all is what the country's neighbors and regional partners would like -- for if Indonesia rises, they all do too. As one senior Singaporean diplomat put it: "Our own prosperity is linked to Indonesia's."

You only have to cast back a decade or so to see how well Indonesia acted as the region's center of gravity and a force for progressive change. In the late 1980s it was Indonesia that pushed the warring Cambodian factions into a settlement that ended the long-running conflict in Indochina, which opened the ear up for investment.

In the early 1990s it was Indonesia that encouraged the first trans-national economic cooperation, which has helped break down barriers to trade within ASEAN. And it was Indonesian Muslim scholars and intellectuals in the 1990s who first identified the need for dialogue and reform to head off the rise of Islamic militancy.

Ironically, Indonesia made these constructive contributions to the region and beyond in spite of the authoritarian and repressive domestic political environment. Former President Soeharto, for all his faults, knew the value of international image-building and responsible regional diplomacy.

After all, he came to power in the aftermath of an earlier period of recklessness and tragedy, which in the mid-1960s had brought Indonesia dangerously close to internal turmoil and conflict with its neighbors.

Susilo would do well to follow in Soeharto's footsteps in this respect. He should harness the country's diplomatic corps to re- building solid relations within the region, begin to generate ideas and initiatives aimed at regional consolidation, or throw his weight behind existing ones, and bring to bear all the ideals of Indonesia's society, non-alignment and tolerance, that the region has come to respect. There are already signs of this: Susilo was quick to link up with Malaysia's new leadership and realize the necessity for moderate Muslim nations to speak with one voice as a means of fighting extremism.

Like Soeharto the former general, Susilo the former general comes to power knowing full well the importance of security. But unlike Soeharto, the people elected Susilo, and here lies the danger. The lesson from the Sukarno era of the 1960s is that dangerous adventurism and reckless foreign policies stem from populist platforms.

Sukarno promised his people an unceasing revolution; he took the country out of the United Nations and confronted Malaysia to demonstrate his political virility. It was his way of maintaining popularity in the face of disastrous economic decline.

Now that Indonesia has a president who must deliver on promises to the people who elected him, the hope is that he will offer them the security and well-being they asked for at the ballot box, without having to resort to petty nationalism and adventurism to cover up for his shortcomings.

The writer is a former editor and chief correspondent of the Far Eastern Economic Review. He can be reached at michaelvatikiotis@yahoo.com