Susilo is not without political leverage

Susilo is not without political leverage

Endy M. Bayuni, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

When Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took office in October, many
pundits predicted that his real test would come when he
inevitably had to increase domestic fuel prices early in his
presidency. This he did on March 1, less than five months into
office. Going by the waning protests and opposition -- in
political circles and on the streets -- SBY appears to have
survived what those pundits had believed would be a make-or-break
moment for his presidency.

The fact that it is now more than three weeks since he hiked
domestic fuel prices by 29 percent is indicative of how
challenging it has been for the Susilo administration to push his
fuel price policy, in spite of months of preparations, including
a massive information campaign to win over public opinion.

The House of Representatives has been trying to block the
increase since day 1. Students have refused to let the issue
rest, staging protests and hunger strikes almost every day. And
the media has been very critical, highlighting how high fuel
prices are affecting people's lives.

But three weeks later, it appears that the President has
survived the political tsunami. What we see today are more like
aftershocks of the earthquake, which will dissipate with time.

For a policy as unpopular as increasing fuel prices, President
Susilo and his Cabinet have had their work cut out for them. Most
people still remember that it was sharp increases in fuel prices
in 1998 that led to the massive protests that eventually forced
strongman Soeharto to resign.

That single event should be a reminder to any president of the
precarious situation they will find themselves in if they attempt
to increase fuel prices. Last year, President Megawati
Soekarnoputri froze fuel prices in the run-up to the election
(which she lost anyway), as world oil prices soared to record
levels of $50 plus per barrel.

How did Susilo, whose power base is the small Democrat Party,
which only garnered seven percent of the vote in the 2004
elections, pull it off?

The answer is that the President has been building up his
political leverage over the last five months, and this has
significantly bolstered his power base. He is not the pushover
that many political big guns, and those who have tried to
capitalize on his fuel policy over the last three weeks, had
assumed.

Of course, the President has many things going for him.

He has a claim to popular and constitutional legitimacy based
on the September runoff in the presidential election.

He timed the increase well. A survey by Lembaga Survei
Indonesia, an independent survey group, showed his popularity
stayed above 60 percent in February. Though down from 80 percent-
plus in December, it was a strong enough showing for him to
introduce the highly unpopular policy without hurting his
political standing too much.

That in itself, however, will not be sufficient for him to
pursue his policies in a democratic Indonesia where the president
has to share power with other institutions, most notably the
House of Representatives.

His situation is a far cry from the days of Soeharto, when the
president controlled not only the House of Representatives, but
also had, at his personal disposal, the security force to compel
public acceptance of all his policies. Soeharto even controlled
public opinion through the muzzled media. With the exception of
1998 when his position had become shaky, Soeharto managed to push
through every single increase in fuel prices with relative ease.

President Susilo enjoys none of these "luxuries".

He does not control the House of Representatives, he is barred
from using the military or police to support his policies, and he
faces a critical and at times even hostile media; and students
loath him for inflicting misery and hardship on them.

But the President is not without loyal, if not powerful,
support in places where it matters: In the corridors of power and
the business world. And this is something that he has worked on
and cultivated since taking office in September.

His choice of Jusuf Kalla as his running mate now looks
increasingly inspired, especially since the Vice President
managed to take over the leadership of the Golkar Party in
December. Whatever suspicions and misgivings people may have had
about Kalla's increasing bargaining power vis-a-vis the
President, his chairmanship of Golkar has effectively defused the
virulent hostility on the part of the House that we saw in the
first weeks of SBY's presidency.

It is inconceivable that SBY could have survived the storm without the
support of Jusuf Kalla and his Golkar Party in the House. And
House Speaker Agung Laksono, who was elected to the post with the
help of Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI-P), took some of the heat away from the President by
blocking every attempt by Megawati's PDI-P to force the House to
take a stand on the government's decision to hike fuel prices.

The presence of politicians from smaller political parties in
the Cabinet also helped to defuse the opposition in the House.

It was essentially pay-back time as far as SBY was concerned.
The President, or more likely Jusuf Kalla, had reportedly
presented an ultimatum to these parties, which were among the
most vocal in criticizing the fuel price increases: to either
drop their opposition, or have their men thrown out of the
Cabinet. They heeded the warning.

The President also has strong built-in leverage with the
business community. Many people may have misgivings about the
appointment of businessman Aburizal Bakrie as chief economics
minister, but his connection with Kadin (the Indonesian Chamber
of Commerce and Industry) means that the President can count on
the support of the powerful business community.

The biggest leverage President Susilo has, however, is time.
He has a five-year mandate and no one, not even the House, can
take that away from him under the newly amended constitution that
makes it next to impossible to impeach the president.

His policies may be subject to closer democratic scrutiny, but
his position as President is unshakeable. As long as he stays the
course, time will show whether his policy of increasing domestic
fuel prices is the right one, and thus prove his critics wrong.

His spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, put it succinctly during a
recent discussion about the President's political standing, when
he said that "Time is on our side."

The President has passed the first really major test of his
presidency.

This episode shows not only the political leverage he has
built into his presidency, but more importantly, a glimpse of his
growing political skills and acumen, and even statesmanship.

Now President Susilo can face the next test with greater
confidence.

For his next biggest challenge is already waiting: The
President will have to increase fuel prices once again to bring
Indonesia into line with the rest of the world.

The writer is chief editor of The Jakarta Post