Susilo is not without political leverage

Endy M. Bayuni, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

When Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took office in October, many pundits predicted that his real test would come when he inevitably had to increase domestic fuel prices early in his presidency. This he did on March 1, less than five months into office. Going by the waning protests and opposition -- in political circles and on the streets -- SBY appears to have survived what those pundits had believed would be a make-or-break moment for his presidency.

The fact that it is now more than three weeks since he hiked domestic fuel prices by 29 percent is indicative of how challenging it has been for the Susilo administration to push his fuel price policy, in spite of months of preparations, including a massive information campaign to win over public opinion.

The House of Representatives has been trying to block the increase since day 1. Students have refused to let the issue rest, staging protests and hunger strikes almost every day. And the media has been very critical, highlighting how high fuel prices are affecting people's lives.

But three weeks later, it appears that the President has survived the political tsunami. What we see today are more like aftershocks of the earthquake, which will dissipate with time.

For a policy as unpopular as increasing fuel prices, President Susilo and his Cabinet have had their work cut out for them. Most people still remember that it was sharp increases in fuel prices in 1998 that led to the massive protests that eventually forced strongman Soeharto to resign.

That single event should be a reminder to any president of the precarious situation they will find themselves in if they attempt to increase fuel prices. Last year, President Megawati Soekarnoputri froze fuel prices in the run-up to the election (which she lost anyway), as world oil prices soared to record levels of $50 plus per barrel.

How did Susilo, whose power base is the small Democrat Party, which only garnered seven percent of the vote in the 2004 elections, pull it off?

The answer is that the President has been building up his political leverage over the last five months, and this has significantly bolstered his power base. He is not the pushover that many political big guns, and those who have tried to capitalize on his fuel policy over the last three weeks, had assumed.

Of course, the President has many things going for him.

He has a claim to popular and constitutional legitimacy based on the September runoff in the presidential election.

He timed the increase well. A survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia, an independent survey group, showed his popularity stayed above 60 percent in February. Though down from 80 percent- plus in December, it was a strong enough showing for him to introduce the highly unpopular policy without hurting his political standing too much.

That in itself, however, will not be sufficient for him to pursue his policies in a democratic Indonesia where the president has to share power with other institutions, most notably the House of Representatives.

His situation is a far cry from the days of Soeharto, when the president controlled not only the House of Representatives, but also had, at his personal disposal, the security force to compel public acceptance of all his policies. Soeharto even controlled public opinion through the muzzled media. With the exception of 1998 when his position had become shaky, Soeharto managed to push through every single increase in fuel prices with relative ease.

President Susilo enjoys none of these "luxuries".

He does not control the House of Representatives, he is barred from using the military or police to support his policies, and he faces a critical and at times even hostile media; and students loath him for inflicting misery and hardship on them.

But the President is not without loyal, if not powerful, support in places where it matters: In the corridors of power and the business world. And this is something that he has worked on and cultivated since taking office in September.

His choice of Jusuf Kalla as his running mate now looks increasingly inspired, especially since the Vice President managed to take over the leadership of the Golkar Party in December. Whatever suspicions and misgivings people may have had about Kalla's increasing bargaining power vis-a-vis the President, his chairmanship of Golkar has effectively defused the virulent hostility on the part of the House that we saw in the first weeks of SBY's presidency.

It is inconceivable that SBY could have survived the storm without the support of Jusuf Kalla and his Golkar Party in the House. And House Speaker Agung Laksono, who was elected to the post with the help of Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), took some of the heat away from the President by blocking every attempt by Megawati's PDI-P to force the House to take a stand on the government's decision to hike fuel prices.

The presence of politicians from smaller political parties in the Cabinet also helped to defuse the opposition in the House.

It was essentially pay-back time as far as SBY was concerned. The President, or more likely Jusuf Kalla, had reportedly presented an ultimatum to these parties, which were among the most vocal in criticizing the fuel price increases: to either drop their opposition, or have their men thrown out of the Cabinet. They heeded the warning.

The President also has strong built-in leverage with the business community. Many people may have misgivings about the appointment of businessman Aburizal Bakrie as chief economics minister, but his connection with Kadin (the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry) means that the President can count on the support of the powerful business community.

The biggest leverage President Susilo has, however, is time. He has a five-year mandate and no one, not even the House, can take that away from him under the newly amended constitution that makes it next to impossible to impeach the president.

His policies may be subject to closer democratic scrutiny, but his position as President is unshakeable. As long as he stays the course, time will show whether his policy of increasing domestic fuel prices is the right one, and thus prove his critics wrong.

His spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, put it succinctly during a recent discussion about the President's political standing, when he said that "Time is on our side."

The President has passed the first really major test of his presidency.

This episode shows not only the political leverage he has built into his presidency, but more importantly, a glimpse of his growing political skills and acumen, and even statesmanship.

Now President Susilo can face the next test with greater confidence.

For his next biggest challenge is already waiting: The President will have to increase fuel prices once again to bring Indonesia into line with the rest of the world.

The writer is chief editor of The Jakarta Post