Survivors' relocation requires heart, wisdom

Survivors' relocation requires heart, wisdom

Totok Amin Soefijanto, Boston, Massachusetts

Machiavelli said: "It is better to be feared than to be
loved." Using this principal, many politicians have ordered
brutal and inhumane treatment of their opponents and critics, and
even their own inner circle, to keep a grip on power.

The Machiavellian approach is cited here to discuss the recent
events in post-tsunami Aceh, where the Indonesian government has
laid out a master plan of reconstruction, with the help of other
nations, multinationals and international organizations, to
rebuild the disaster areas.

One of the important reconstruction policies is the relocation
of tsunami survivors and the redrawing of the urban development
plan in Banda Aceh and other districts and municipalities
effected by the Dec. 26 tsunami.

No one can hide the fact that Aceh is still under a state of
civil emergency. The Indonesian government has been fighting and
trying to eradicate the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) for
years. This natural disaster is unlikely to change this.

In this regard, there are two schools of thought when it comes
to counterinsurgency. The first school of thought is the hearts
and minds approach, which utilizes development to reduce the
desire to join the insurgency.

The second school is coercion, which employs military force
to undermine the insurgents' opportunity to fight. Some experts
have observed that both schools have utilized population
relocation as a favored strategy. In fact, according to Kelly M.
Greenhill, an MIT graduate and postdoctorate fellow at Harvard's
Kennedy School of Government, this strategy is not always
successful.

After studying dozens of guerrilla wars all over the world,
she concluded in a paper titled Draining the Sea, or Feeding the
Fire?: The Efficacy of Population Relocation in Counterinsurgency
Operations that the key to success in population relocations is
total co-optation and profound brutality. Luckily or not, she did
not mention Aceh.

Population relocation is a logical step to diminish
insurgents' capacity to survive. It is like draining the water
from the sea so the fish will suffer. We know that Mao's
guerrilla war doctrine saw the population as the water and the
insurgents as the fish. Without the "water", the "fish" will die.

The Indonesian Military (TNI) has been fighting the rebels in
Aceh for decades, and yet we have seen little progress. Martial
law and a state of civil emergency over the last year and a half
have had a significant effect in improving the Indonesian
government's authority over the region, but we have seen little
evidence that this normalcy will last long because coercion and
force can hardly win the hearts and minds of the people, which is
the most important factor in GAM's survival.

So far, population relocation has been implemented
successfully in three countries: The Malaya Emergency (1948-
1960), Venezuela (1960s) and Turkey (1984-1990s). Turkey is an
especially interesting case.

The secular-Islamic nation has successfully crippled the left-
leaning rebel Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) in the southeast by
implementing a combination of total co-optation and limited
coercion in its population relocation strategy. The central
government in Ankara relocated the Kurdish population into
several spots and then improved the infrastructure, granted
economic autonomy and cultural freedom.

This policy certainly drained the Kurdistan rebels' ability to
fight because many Kurds enjoying newfound economic prosperity
turned against them. Indeed, the reason Ankara spent billions on
a guerrilla war in a region that has minimal natural resources
was to unite the nation and retain its stature as the former
Ottoman global superpower. What can we learn from this case?

People revolt because they think life can be better.
Tocqueville said that revolution or rebellion erupted because of
"unfulfilled expectations". Some Acehnese bought into the idea
that they can live better than today, so they joined or supported
the insurgency.

We often hear sad stories about a lack of infrastructure in
Aceh despite its abundant natural resources. The Dec. 26 tsunami
has proved to be a blessing in disguise for the Indonesian
government, allowing it to review its past policies in Aceh.

Jakarta can show its wisdom and thoughtfulness by relocating
the survivors to proper locations with better infrastructure,
provide houses to homeless survivors and preserve the ownership
rights of those whose houses were demolished by the tsunami. This
is hopefully not wishful thinking considering the international
relief funds that have poured in, in addition to Aceh's existing
revenue from natural resources.

In the future, the government can expand this approach to
other districts and municipalities in Aceh province that have
been left behind, and other provinces in Indonesia. Population
relocation as part of a grand reconstruction plan in Aceh should
take into consideration the fact that Aceh is a deciding factor
in the future of the Republic of Indonesia. If we fail now, then
we will be failing for good.

The Indonesian government should take a humanitarian approach
and disregard policies and actions that encourage profound
brutality. What the Acehnese face today is being watched
carefully by other Indonesian citizens.

Therefore, it is wise to twist Machiavelli's approach in our
nation-building project and keep Indonesia united. We should win
the hearts and minds of the Acehnese. To achieve that goal, we
must aim to be loved rather than feared.

The writer is an adjunct staff at Boston University's School
of Education and a researcher with Harvard University's Program
on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research. He can be reached
at totok@fulbrightweb.org.