Survey says public ready for direct poll

Berni K. Moestafa, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

A poll shows that 69.5 percent of 4,133 respondents are ready to vote in a direct presidential election, as lawmakers will meet next week to decide whether to adopt a direct election in 2004.

The poll results, presented by the Centre for Political Studies and the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate on Monday, also showed that the country's ruling party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) had retained its popularity, despite recent criticism of what many perceive as a waning commitment toward reform.

Its popularity stood at 29.4 percent, followed by the National Mandate Party (PAN), with 19.8 percent. The country's second-largest party, Golkar, slid to 5.3 percent amid a rash of graft allegations that have hurt its image.

However, 27.1 percent of the respondents declined to indicate a favorite party. And although nearly 70 percent said they were ready to choose their future leaders in a direct election, 27.8 percent said they did not know whom that should be.

Only 15.5 percent said PDI Perjuangan chairwoman President Megawati Soekarnoputri and Coordinating Minister for Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would make an ideal pairing for the 2004 presidential race.

The poll, held from July 15 through July 25, surveyed mainly educated respondents in Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Medan and Makassar.

Analysts commenting on the poll, however, said its results did not reflect the views of voters in rural areas, where parties such as Golkar had a strong support base.

This is also not the first poll to estimate Golkar's fall. Polls ahead of the 1999 election showed similar results, only to cause public surprise when Golkar finished the race in second place after PDI Perjuangan.

The latest poll added strength to previous ones that have showed the public felt ready to elect their future leaders through a direct presidential election in 2004.

The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Annual Session is set next week to finalize the four-year amendment process of the 1945 Constitution. This includes ending debate on whether to adopt a direct election by 2004 or defer it to 2009.

Last month the President cast doubt over the public's readiness for a direct election, fearing it could lead to anarchy.

Her directive for her party to lobby against a direct election in 2004 raised fears the country's largest party might be steering the MPR Annual Session into deadlock.

However, PDI Perjuangan members decided to ignore Megawati's concern and supported the 2004 date at a recent congress.

Analysts commenting on the poll said PDI Perjuangan's apparent popularity was surprising given its controversial support for unpopular Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso, and its blocking of the establishment of a special committee to investigate graft charges against House of Representatives (DPR) Speaker Akbar Tandjung.

"Public support for PDI Perjuangan is largely due to Megawati rather than the party as a political organization," said analyst Fachry Ali at a media meeting.

He added that respondents who chose Megawati-Susilo as the ideal pairing preferred stability, even at the expense of the commitment to reform.

Critics have highlighted Megawati's close ties with the military, which, they said, improved political stability and security, but at the cost of the military's growing influence in politics.

Also surprising was the glaring percentage, nearly one-third, who said that they could not identify the parties or leaders in which they were confident for the 2004 election. Asked whom they regarded as future young leaders, 40.1 percent of respondents said they did not know.

"Most of the people surveyed were educated, yet the percentage answering they did not know was very high," said Firiani Sophiaan Yudoyoko, who heads the political science department at the University of Indonesia.

She said this indicated educated voters had either become apathetic towards politics, or were awaiting better options.

Analyst Rizal Mallarangeng said the large proportion of undecided voters could be a crucial factor in the outcome of the 2004 general election.

"A large proportion of those who support PDI Perjuangan or other parties are also floating voters," Rizal added, explaining their votes might cancel each other out in 2004.

Analysts said disenchanted voters were being targeted by many of the new parties, which total some 180 to date.