Surabaya 'most vulnerable to unrest'

Surabaya 'most vulnerable to unrest'

JAKARTA (JP): The East Java capital of Surabaya is the most
likely area to explode into unrest, a study reveals.

The study, jointly conducted by Trisakti University, Suara 234
and Research Institute for Democracy and Peace researchers, put
Surabaya ahead of South Jakarta, Medan in North Sumatra, East
Jakarta and North Jakarta. The areas were listed in numerical
order, based on socioeconomic disparity and the degree of public
distrust in the government.

According to the study, a series of conflicts within the
society, either violent or nonviolent, contributed to the
potential for unrest in the areas. The researchers compiled all
reported conflicts which flared up across the country throughout
1998 and up to March 1999.

Next in the list of top 10 potential trouble spots were
Bandung regency, Bogor regency, both in West Java, West Jakarta,
Bekasi regency in West Java and Malang regency in East Java.

Lining up in the next most prone to conflict were Malang
regency in East Java, Central Jakarta, Sidoarjo regency in East
Java, Tangerang and Serang regencies in West Java, Surakarta
mayoralty in Central Java, the South Sulawesi capital of
Ujungpandang, the Maluku capital of Ambon, Yogykarta and the
Central Java capital of Semarang.

Head of Trisakti research institute Dadan Umar Daihani said
results of the study will be presented at Borobudur Hotel on
Thursday. He said the findings were an early warning for
residents of those areas, the government and security authorities
of possible violence, even in areas which had never been hit by
riots, ahead of the June 7 general election.

"Our mapping (of the situation) concludes the atmosphere now
is not conducive for the polls. It's up to the government now to
fix it up within the remaining weeks," Dadan said.

He said the study was aimed at enabling people to go further
than conventional analysis, which considered, among other things,
the economic gap, unemployment and religious disharmony as the
trigger for conflict.

"Of course, urban areas are typically vulnerable to unrest,
but there are over 50 variables more in our study to gauge a
town's potential for conflicts."

Citing an example, he said many of the towns prone to unrest
saw a high degree of local resistance to the government.

"One of the likely recommendations is to restore public trust
in the government through a complete solution of corrupt,
collusive and nepotistic practices."

Many have criticized President B.J. Habibie's administration
for its foot-dragging investigation into former president
Soeharto's alleged corruption and power abuses, a duty mandated
by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) last November.

In his latest statement on the issue, Habibie requested
people's patience on Tuesday, saying pertinent information was
being processed. He said he would deliver his account on the
implementation of the MPR decree during its general session
scheduled for November.

Antigovernment

Dadan emphasized Surabaya, East Jakarta, Bandung, Surakarta,
Yogyakarta and other university cities had a high potential for
antigovernment demonstrations.

"The fact that vote rigging and other violations were rampant
in past elections gives a boost to the potential (for unrest). In
other words, electoral violations will trigger more student
demonstrations," he said.

The study, however, did not find any correlation between
student rallies and riots.

"Hundreds of student demonstrations took place in Bandung,
Yogyakarta, Surakarta, Semarang, Central Jakarta and other
university cities last year, but most of them were free of or at
least saw few riots."

Student rallies in several parts of the country last year
ended in violence, after the students defied harsh measures
exercised by security authorities. Four Trisakti University
students were killed in a May demonstration and at least 15
people, including six students, died in a joint student rally
during the special session of People's Consultative Assembly in
November.

The study revealed Central Jakarta topped the list of riot-
prone areas. Other parts of Jakarta, South Jakarta and North
Jakarta, joined the top five, as a result of the riots in which
close to 1,200 people were killed last May. The most destructive
riot ever to break out in the three decade rule of the New Order
regime preceded the fall of Soeharto.

Ambon was second after Central Jakarta, followed by South
Jakarta, North Jakarta and Indramayu in West Java. The next most
prone areas to conflict, in numerical order, were the North
Sumatra capital of Medan, the East Nusa Tenggara capital of
Kupang, Banggai regency in Central Sulawesi, Karawang in West
Java, Purworejo in Central Java, Sambas in West Kalimantan, the
South Sulawesi capital of Ujungpandang and Banyumas in Central
Java.

Regencies in East Timor had the least potential for unrest,
despite persistent challenges mounted by rebel groups since it
was integrated into Indonesia in 1976.

"The province is volatile in terms of antigovernment
movements, but it is canceled out by the fact the territory lacks
religious and economic discrepancies which could trigger
conflicts," Dadan said.

Sambas, one of the country's latest hot spots, was also
categorized as a low risk conflict area, in part because of its
economic parity and low resistance to the government.

Dadan warned that areas with a more or less equal division of
religious groups could explode into communal clashes lasting
generations.

He specifically referred to Ambon in Maluku and its
surrounding areas, the religious riots of which have left more
than 400 people killed since they first erupted mid-January.

"Medan is ranked third in the list of towns with most
potential for conflict, because of its relatively balanced
composition of religious groups," he said. (amd)