Surabaya 'most vulnerable to unrest'

JAKARTA (JP): The East Java capital of Surabaya is the most likely area to explode into unrest, a study reveals.

The study, jointly conducted by Trisakti University, Suara 234 and Research Institute for Democracy and Peace researchers, put Surabaya ahead of South Jakarta, Medan in North Sumatra, East Jakarta and North Jakarta. The areas were listed in numerical order, based on socioeconomic disparity and the degree of public distrust in the government.

According to the study, a series of conflicts within the society, either violent or nonviolent, contributed to the potential for unrest in the areas. The researchers compiled all reported conflicts which flared up across the country throughout 1998 and up to March 1999.

Next in the list of top 10 potential trouble spots were Bandung regency, Bogor regency, both in West Java, West Jakarta, Bekasi regency in West Java and Malang regency in East Java.

Lining up in the next most prone to conflict were Malang regency in East Java, Central Jakarta, Sidoarjo regency in East Java, Tangerang and Serang regencies in West Java, Surakarta mayoralty in Central Java, the South Sulawesi capital of Ujungpandang, the Maluku capital of Ambon, Yogykarta and the Central Java capital of Semarang.

Head of Trisakti research institute Dadan Umar Daihani said results of the study will be presented at Borobudur Hotel on Thursday. He said the findings were an early warning for residents of those areas, the government and security authorities of possible violence, even in areas which had never been hit by riots, ahead of the June 7 general election.

"Our mapping (of the situation) concludes the atmosphere now is not conducive for the polls. It's up to the government now to fix it up within the remaining weeks," Dadan said.

He said the study was aimed at enabling people to go further than conventional analysis, which considered, among other things, the economic gap, unemployment and religious disharmony as the trigger for conflict.

"Of course, urban areas are typically vulnerable to unrest, but there are over 50 variables more in our study to gauge a town's potential for conflicts."

Citing an example, he said many of the towns prone to unrest saw a high degree of local resistance to the government.

"One of the likely recommendations is to restore public trust in the government through a complete solution of corrupt, collusive and nepotistic practices."

Many have criticized President B.J. Habibie's administration for its foot-dragging investigation into former president Soeharto's alleged corruption and power abuses, a duty mandated by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) last November.

In his latest statement on the issue, Habibie requested people's patience on Tuesday, saying pertinent information was being processed. He said he would deliver his account on the implementation of the MPR decree during its general session scheduled for November.

Antigovernment

Dadan emphasized Surabaya, East Jakarta, Bandung, Surakarta, Yogyakarta and other university cities had a high potential for antigovernment demonstrations.

"The fact that vote rigging and other violations were rampant in past elections gives a boost to the potential (for unrest). In other words, electoral violations will trigger more student demonstrations," he said.

The study, however, did not find any correlation between student rallies and riots.

"Hundreds of student demonstrations took place in Bandung, Yogyakarta, Surakarta, Semarang, Central Jakarta and other university cities last year, but most of them were free of or at least saw few riots."

Student rallies in several parts of the country last year ended in violence, after the students defied harsh measures exercised by security authorities. Four Trisakti University students were killed in a May demonstration and at least 15 people, including six students, died in a joint student rally during the special session of People's Consultative Assembly in November.

The study revealed Central Jakarta topped the list of riot- prone areas. Other parts of Jakarta, South Jakarta and North Jakarta, joined the top five, as a result of the riots in which close to 1,200 people were killed last May. The most destructive riot ever to break out in the three decade rule of the New Order regime preceded the fall of Soeharto.

Ambon was second after Central Jakarta, followed by South Jakarta, North Jakarta and Indramayu in West Java. The next most prone areas to conflict, in numerical order, were the North Sumatra capital of Medan, the East Nusa Tenggara capital of Kupang, Banggai regency in Central Sulawesi, Karawang in West Java, Purworejo in Central Java, Sambas in West Kalimantan, the South Sulawesi capital of Ujungpandang and Banyumas in Central Java.

Regencies in East Timor had the least potential for unrest, despite persistent challenges mounted by rebel groups since it was integrated into Indonesia in 1976.

"The province is volatile in terms of antigovernment movements, but it is canceled out by the fact the territory lacks religious and economic discrepancies which could trigger conflicts," Dadan said.

Sambas, one of the country's latest hot spots, was also categorized as a low risk conflict area, in part because of its economic parity and low resistance to the government.

Dadan warned that areas with a more or less equal division of religious groups could explode into communal clashes lasting generations.

He specifically referred to Ambon in Maluku and its surrounding areas, the religious riots of which have left more than 400 people killed since they first erupted mid-January.

"Medan is ranked third in the list of towns with most potential for conflict, because of its relatively balanced composition of religious groups," he said. (amd)