Support of House vital for economic management

Support of House vital for economic management

Umar Juoro, Jakarta

The results of the first round of the presidential election
shows that candidate popularity is much more important than
political party support. In fact, personality is almost as
important as substance. Though various credible opinion polls
have shown that economic issues are the main concerns of the
voters, the economic programs of the candidates have not been a
determining factor in the way the voters chose their candidates.

This trend will likely continue in the second round of the
presidential election. Of course, the business community would
like to see the economic programs of the two candidates in the
second round spelled out in greater detail. However, this may not
be so important for the candidates as their attention will be
focused on how to woo as many voters as possible rather than on
the issue of how to deliver on their promises.

Politically, the voters' preferences for candidates rest
mainly on the back of their popularity, especially in the case of
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and to some extent also Megawati
Soekarnoputri, as her popularity is higher than that of her
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). The fact that
this is the case is an interesting phenomenon.

It signifies that the accountability of an individual leader
is more important for the voters than that of the political
institution standing behind him/her. However, from the point of
view of the policy-making process, this could complicate the
situation.

It will be interesting to see how a president with a strong
popular vote, but who lacks the support of the House of
Representatives (DPR), will be able to run the country
effectively. This applies especially in the Susilo case.
Political party support might not be that important for Susilo to
win the presidency, but it will be crucial when he tries to run
the government.

In this kind of situation, the policy-making process will
likely continue at its current pace should President Megawati be
reelected. However, the situation may be strikingly different if
Susilo is elected.

The market would immediately get a a boost if Susilo was
elected but the economic outlook in the medium term should cause
a lot of concern if he is unable to gain strong support in the
House.

Even with strong popular mandate, without enough support from
the House, Susilo, as president, would not be able to implement
his economic policies effectively as the government relies
heavily on House support on a day-to-day basis.

We can say that the way the government works in Indonesia is
now legislature-heavy. In addition to having to get along with
the House, the president also faces problems related to
coordination between central and local government and the
unrealistic expectations of voters that the president will be
able to solve their problems single-handedly.

Failure to overcome these problems will not only lead to a
weak government, but also a perpetuation of voter behavior in
voting for another populist figure in the next presidential
election and dropping whom they voted for before because of his
or her failure to satisfy their excessively high expectations.

Comparatively speaking, Indonesia at the crossroads between
becoming a democratic and prosperous country like Korea or
Taiwan, or going the way of the Philippines, where presidential
elections are more often than not little more than beauty
contests, while the economy remains mired in chronic problems.

In fact, many of the problems faced by investors here have a
lot to do with the way the government works with the House and
the relationship between central and local government, both of
which open the opportunity for widespread corruption and
uncertainty.

The president cannot simply bypass the House to get what
he/she wants and for policies to be implemented effectively.
Failure to address this issue will only aggravate the problems of
low growth and increasing unemployment.

No matter how high a candidate's popularity may be, he/she
will still need the firm support of political party
representatives in the House.

Consequently, Susilo will need to develop cooperation with the
political parties, either sooner or later. It is only a matter of
timing, and he knows this all too well.

Susilo must realize that the natural development of the
political parties has been threatened by his meteoric rise in
popularity, and that this could incite strong resistance from the
politicians in the House, and a determination to ensure that his
government fails to deliver what it has promised.

Even if he could govern successfully without House support,
there would then be the danger of eroding the roles of political
institutions and the emergence of an excessively strong leader, a
situation that would certainly not be sustainable in the long
run.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Habibie Center.