Support of House vital for economic management

Umar Juoro, Jakarta

The results of the first round of the presidential election shows that candidate popularity is much more important than political party support. In fact, personality is almost as important as substance. Though various credible opinion polls have shown that economic issues are the main concerns of the voters, the economic programs of the candidates have not been a determining factor in the way the voters chose their candidates.

This trend will likely continue in the second round of the presidential election. Of course, the business community would like to see the economic programs of the two candidates in the second round spelled out in greater detail. However, this may not be so important for the candidates as their attention will be focused on how to woo as many voters as possible rather than on the issue of how to deliver on their promises.

Politically, the voters' preferences for candidates rest mainly on the back of their popularity, especially in the case of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and to some extent also Megawati Soekarnoputri, as her popularity is higher than that of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). The fact that this is the case is an interesting phenomenon.

It signifies that the accountability of an individual leader is more important for the voters than that of the political institution standing behind him/her. However, from the point of view of the policy-making process, this could complicate the situation.

It will be interesting to see how a president with a strong popular vote, but who lacks the support of the House of Representatives (DPR), will be able to run the country effectively. This applies especially in the Susilo case. Political party support might not be that important for Susilo to win the presidency, but it will be crucial when he tries to run the government.

In this kind of situation, the policy-making process will likely continue at its current pace should President Megawati be reelected. However, the situation may be strikingly different if Susilo is elected.

The market would immediately get a a boost if Susilo was elected but the economic outlook in the medium term should cause a lot of concern if he is unable to gain strong support in the House.

Even with strong popular mandate, without enough support from the House, Susilo, as president, would not be able to implement his economic policies effectively as the government relies heavily on House support on a day-to-day basis.

We can say that the way the government works in Indonesia is now legislature-heavy. In addition to having to get along with the House, the president also faces problems related to coordination between central and local government and the unrealistic expectations of voters that the president will be able to solve their problems single-handedly.

Failure to overcome these problems will not only lead to a weak government, but also a perpetuation of voter behavior in voting for another populist figure in the next presidential election and dropping whom they voted for before because of his or her failure to satisfy their excessively high expectations.

Comparatively speaking, Indonesia at the crossroads between becoming a democratic and prosperous country like Korea or Taiwan, or going the way of the Philippines, where presidential elections are more often than not little more than beauty contests, while the economy remains mired in chronic problems.

In fact, many of the problems faced by investors here have a lot to do with the way the government works with the House and the relationship between central and local government, both of which open the opportunity for widespread corruption and uncertainty.

The president cannot simply bypass the House to get what he/she wants and for policies to be implemented effectively. Failure to address this issue will only aggravate the problems of low growth and increasing unemployment.

No matter how high a candidate's popularity may be, he/she will still need the firm support of political party representatives in the House.

Consequently, Susilo will need to develop cooperation with the political parties, either sooner or later. It is only a matter of timing, and he knows this all too well.

Susilo must realize that the natural development of the political parties has been threatened by his meteoric rise in popularity, and that this could incite strong resistance from the politicians in the House, and a determination to ensure that his government fails to deliver what it has promised.

Even if he could govern successfully without House support, there would then be the danger of eroding the roles of political institutions and the emergence of an excessively strong leader, a situation that would certainly not be sustainable in the long run.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Habibie Center.