Support for Megawati drops: Survey

Support for Megawati drops: Survey

Muninggar Sri Saraswati , The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

People's support for President Megawati Soekarnoputri has
continued to drop ahead of the elections but she remains the
strongest candidate among existing presidential aspirants, a
survey indicates.

The latest survey by Marketing Research Indonesia (MRI) showed
that support for Megawati had slumped to 16 percent in September
2003, down from 23 percent in July 2003, 26 percent in 2002, and
49 percent in 2001.

Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan) also saw a continuous decline in support. The survey
indicated that support for PDI Perjuangan fell to 17 percent in
September, compared to 23 percent in July.

The survey was conducted in September through direct
interviews involving 1,457 male and female respondents aged 17
and above in six cities -- Jakarta, Bandung in West Java,
Semarang in Central Java, Surabaya in East Java, Medan in North
Sumatra, and Makassar in South Sulawesi, with a margin for error
of around 3 percent.

"Clearly this is a warning for Megawati and her party if she
wants to become president in the next period," Harry Puspito of
MRI said in a statement received by The Jakarta Post on Saturday.

He predicted that both PDI Perjuangan and Megawati would lose
even more popularity if the government continued to impose
unpopular policies, such as their treatment of the poor in the
capital, their obvious disrespect for the media, and their
failure to succeed in the country's anticorruption drive.

"If they continue to impose policies that do not place the
interests of the common people as a priority and they do not have
the goodwill to create good relations with the media, both
Megawati and PDI Perjuangan can expect fewer voters in the
upcoming elections," Harry added.

Indonesia is scheduled to hold a legislative election in April
2004 and its first-ever direct presidential election in July
2004.

Despite shrinking political support, Megawati remains the
strongest presidential candidate compared to other aspirants.
Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party, for example, got only a
10 percent vote of the people polled in September, Coordinating
Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono 4 percent, Justice and Human Rights Minister Yusril
Ihza Mahendra 2 percent, Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung 2
percent, and former president Abdurrahman Wahid 2 percent.

The survey also showed more respondents voting for Golkar, the
political vehicle of former dictator Soeharto.

In a survey held in June and July, 10 percent of respondents
opted for the former ruling party. However, the figure increased
to 14 percent in September.

"Golkar has done very well in its consolidation. If its
chairman did not face any problems, the New Order party may come
back (to lead the country)," Harry said, referring to Akbar
Tandjung, who has been sentenced to prison for a graft case. He
remains free pending an appeal with the Supreme Court.

Akbar attracted only 2 percent of respondents in both the
June/July and September surveys.

According to the surveys, the National Mandate Party (PAN) may
have good prospects in the 2004 elections. The number of voters
increased from 6 percent in June and July to 10 percent in
September.

"The party's aggressive promotional tours across the country
have yielded significant results," Harry commented.

However, Amien Rais, who is also the speaker of the
People's Consultative Assembly, only gained a 1 percent increase
in popularity among respondents from 9 percent in the June and
July survey to 10 percent in September.

The United Development Party (PPP) recorded a decrease from 9
percent in June and July to 7 percent in September, while the
National Awakening Party (PKB) recorded a slight increase from 3
percent to 4 percent.

However, the Star Crescent Party (PBB) was chosen by three
percent of respondents in September, while in June and July it
was voted for by only 1 percent of respondents.

Other presidential hopefuls, such as Susilo, Yusril, and
Yogyakarta Governor Hamengkubuwono X gained a slight increase.
Yudhoyono was favored by 4 percent respondents from an earlier 3
percent, Yusril from 2 percent to 3 percent and Hamengkubuwono
from 2 percent to 3 percent.

PPP chairman Hamzah Haz, who is also the party presidential
hopeful, lost 2 percent of voters from an earlier 4 percent while
Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid dropped to 2 percent from 3 percent.

The surveys also revealed that Pancasila was favored by most
respondents as a state ideology, from 86 percent in the June and
July survey to 92 percent in the September survey.

The number of respondents, who opted not to vote, increased
from 11 percent to 15 percent.