Support for Megawati drops: Survey

Muninggar Sri Saraswati , The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

People's support for President Megawati Soekarnoputri has continued to drop ahead of the elections but she remains the strongest candidate among existing presidential aspirants, a survey indicates.

The latest survey by Marketing Research Indonesia (MRI) showed that support for Megawati had slumped to 16 percent in September 2003, down from 23 percent in July 2003, 26 percent in 2002, and 49 percent in 2001.

Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) also saw a continuous decline in support. The survey indicated that support for PDI Perjuangan fell to 17 percent in September, compared to 23 percent in July.

The survey was conducted in September through direct interviews involving 1,457 male and female respondents aged 17 and above in six cities -- Jakarta, Bandung in West Java, Semarang in Central Java, Surabaya in East Java, Medan in North Sumatra, and Makassar in South Sulawesi, with a margin for error of around 3 percent.

"Clearly this is a warning for Megawati and her party if she wants to become president in the next period," Harry Puspito of MRI said in a statement received by The Jakarta Post on Saturday.

He predicted that both PDI Perjuangan and Megawati would lose even more popularity if the government continued to impose unpopular policies, such as their treatment of the poor in the capital, their obvious disrespect for the media, and their failure to succeed in the country's anticorruption drive.

"If they continue to impose policies that do not place the interests of the common people as a priority and they do not have the goodwill to create good relations with the media, both Megawati and PDI Perjuangan can expect fewer voters in the upcoming elections," Harry added.

Indonesia is scheduled to hold a legislative election in April 2004 and its first-ever direct presidential election in July 2004.

Despite shrinking political support, Megawati remains the strongest presidential candidate compared to other aspirants. Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party, for example, got only a 10 percent vote of the people polled in September, Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono 4 percent, Justice and Human Rights Minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra 2 percent, Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung 2 percent, and former president Abdurrahman Wahid 2 percent.

The survey also showed more respondents voting for Golkar, the political vehicle of former dictator Soeharto.

In a survey held in June and July, 10 percent of respondents opted for the former ruling party. However, the figure increased to 14 percent in September.

"Golkar has done very well in its consolidation. If its chairman did not face any problems, the New Order party may come back (to lead the country)," Harry said, referring to Akbar Tandjung, who has been sentenced to prison for a graft case. He remains free pending an appeal with the Supreme Court.

Akbar attracted only 2 percent of respondents in both the June/July and September surveys.

According to the surveys, the National Mandate Party (PAN) may have good prospects in the 2004 elections. The number of voters increased from 6 percent in June and July to 10 percent in September.

"The party's aggressive promotional tours across the country have yielded significant results," Harry commented.

However, Amien Rais, who is also the speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, only gained a 1 percent increase in popularity among respondents from 9 percent in the June and July survey to 10 percent in September.

The United Development Party (PPP) recorded a decrease from 9 percent in June and July to 7 percent in September, while the National Awakening Party (PKB) recorded a slight increase from 3 percent to 4 percent.

However, the Star Crescent Party (PBB) was chosen by three percent of respondents in September, while in June and July it was voted for by only 1 percent of respondents.

Other presidential hopefuls, such as Susilo, Yusril, and Yogyakarta Governor Hamengkubuwono X gained a slight increase. Yudhoyono was favored by 4 percent respondents from an earlier 3 percent, Yusril from 2 percent to 3 percent and Hamengkubuwono from 2 percent to 3 percent.

PPP chairman Hamzah Haz, who is also the party presidential hopeful, lost 2 percent of voters from an earlier 4 percent while Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid dropped to 2 percent from 3 percent.

The surveys also revealed that Pancasila was favored by most respondents as a state ideology, from 86 percent in the June and July survey to 92 percent in the September survey.

The number of respondents, who opted not to vote, increased from 11 percent to 15 percent.