'Sukhoigate' and its effects

'Sukhoigate' and its effects

Imanuddin Razak, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

While the House of Representatives' investigating committee
had yet to complete its inquiry into the controversial purchase
of four Russian Sukhoi jet fighters, the Indonesian Military
(TNI) Headquarters announced on Aug. 27 that it planned to
purchase another 10 such jet fighters next year to build a
complete squadron of Sukhoi warplanes.

One week later, the inquiry reached an anticlimax when the
committee, which was initially optimistic about successfully
investigating the scandal, made an equally controversial move in
announcing that it had failed to reveal any irregularities in the
US$192.6 million countertrade deal, and instead reaped criticism
over the way it carried out its investigation.

Apart from the alleged irregularities in both the initial
purchase of the four Sukhois and the subsequent legislative
proceedings, the TNI headquarters' decision to purchase an
additional 10 Russian warplanes added to the controversy
considering that such a plan was made at a time when the country
is financially unhealthy and that the plan itself carries heavy
risks.

Senior economist Rizal Ramli once said that the patchwork
countertrade proposal could result in huge losses to the state
because all of the price risks associated with the purchase of
the commodities involved, and their evaluation at the time of
sale, would be borne by the state budget.

It remains unclear how the government (or the TNI) will pay
for the purchase of the additional 10 warplanes, since they were
not part of planned acquisitions of the Ministry of Defense.

Even the allocation of import credit totaling $241.71 million
to the TNI in the 2003 budget drawn up by the National
Development Planning Board (Bappenas) does not include the
purchase of the Russian plans. Nor does the purchase appear in
the Air Force's plans for 2004, which totals Rp 5 trillion.

Controversy aside, it is indeed understandable that the
government wants to upgrade its military equipment as some of it
was made in 1942, a few years before the country's independence.
Plus the TNI has been suffering from the arms embargo by the
United States, its major source of weapons over the past three
decades.

The U.S. Senate recently rejected a proposal to lift the
embargo, citing last year's lethal ambush of American citizens in
Timika, Papua province, in which some have accused the TNI of
complicity.

Military analysts and arms experts have praised the Russian
warplanes, especially the Su-30-MK fighters, calling them
multirole air-superiority fighters that can also hit ground and
naval targets with their guided missiles and free-flight rockets.
The fighters can also engage the enemy independently or together
with other warplanes.

Meanwhile, a different version of the Su-30-MK reportedly has
state-of-the-art surveillance capability that will help Indonesia
deal with reportedly rampant cases of foreign warplanes intruding
into the country's air space. As recent as July 3, two of
Indonesia's American-made F-16s intercepted U.S. Navy F-18
Hornets above Bawean island over the Java Sea.

Purchasing from Russia is especially attractive because,
unlike other countries that develop and sell state-of-the-art
fighters and ground-attack planes, Russia does not attach any
political or economic preconditions, such as in Indonesia's bid
to procure the jet fighters. Nor has Russia displayed any
intention to interfere in Indonesia's internal affairs or to
impose any sanctions in connection with any specific government
decision.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri has said repeatedly that the
decision to purchase from Russia was made because Indonesia
adheres to a "free and active" foreign policy, adding that
Indonesia can purchase arms and military equipment from any
country in the world.

Still, the decision to procure the Russian warplanes is not
free of risk, especially if it means "challenging" the U.S.

People may still remember that Megawati's father, founding
president Sukarno, had to endure hard times with the U.S. when he
decided to procure quite a large supply of arms and military
equipment from the then Soviet Union in the early 1960s,
including MIG-21 jet fighters, then considered to be among the
best of their kind. The decision to procure the MIG-21s was made
after his request to procure American warplanes -- to use in his
campaign to claim West Irian as Indonesian territory -- was
rejected by the U.S. government.

Some analysts attribute Sukarno's downfall at least in part to
his political leanings toward the Soviet Union.

If it's true that history repeats itself, Megawati should
carefully calculate her government's decision to turn to Russian
jet fighters. True, Indonesia is free to buy arms from anywhere
it likes, yet the President should seriously consider the
possible impacts.

Especially if she wants to run for president again next year,
she would need to take into account the financial burden to the
country given the price of the Sukhois.

She should recall that her father's decision to procure arms
and military equipment from the Soviet Union in the 1960s led
Indonesia to a huge debt of $1 billion to the Soviet Union and
its eastern European allies, as Indonesia was considered too poor
to purchase such sophisticated weaponry in the 1960s.

She should also carefully consider the after-sales service and
the availability of spare parts for the jet fighters, so as not
to repeat her father's failure to properly maintain the Russian
warplanes, no matter how sophisticated they are.