'Sukhoigate' and its effects

Imanuddin Razak, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

While the House of Representatives' investigating committee had yet to complete its inquiry into the controversial purchase of four Russian Sukhoi jet fighters, the Indonesian Military (TNI) Headquarters announced on Aug. 27 that it planned to purchase another 10 such jet fighters next year to build a complete squadron of Sukhoi warplanes.

One week later, the inquiry reached an anticlimax when the committee, which was initially optimistic about successfully investigating the scandal, made an equally controversial move in announcing that it had failed to reveal any irregularities in the US$192.6 million countertrade deal, and instead reaped criticism over the way it carried out its investigation.

Apart from the alleged irregularities in both the initial purchase of the four Sukhois and the subsequent legislative proceedings, the TNI headquarters' decision to purchase an additional 10 Russian warplanes added to the controversy considering that such a plan was made at a time when the country is financially unhealthy and that the plan itself carries heavy risks.

Senior economist Rizal Ramli once said that the patchwork countertrade proposal could result in huge losses to the state because all of the price risks associated with the purchase of the commodities involved, and their evaluation at the time of sale, would be borne by the state budget.

It remains unclear how the government (or the TNI) will pay for the purchase of the additional 10 warplanes, since they were not part of planned acquisitions of the Ministry of Defense.

Even the allocation of import credit totaling $241.71 million to the TNI in the 2003 budget drawn up by the National Development Planning Board (Bappenas) does not include the purchase of the Russian plans. Nor does the purchase appear in the Air Force's plans for 2004, which totals Rp 5 trillion.

Controversy aside, it is indeed understandable that the government wants to upgrade its military equipment as some of it was made in 1942, a few years before the country's independence. Plus the TNI has been suffering from the arms embargo by the United States, its major source of weapons over the past three decades.

The U.S. Senate recently rejected a proposal to lift the embargo, citing last year's lethal ambush of American citizens in Timika, Papua province, in which some have accused the TNI of complicity.

Military analysts and arms experts have praised the Russian warplanes, especially the Su-30-MK fighters, calling them multirole air-superiority fighters that can also hit ground and naval targets with their guided missiles and free-flight rockets. The fighters can also engage the enemy independently or together with other warplanes.

Meanwhile, a different version of the Su-30-MK reportedly has state-of-the-art surveillance capability that will help Indonesia deal with reportedly rampant cases of foreign warplanes intruding into the country's air space. As recent as July 3, two of Indonesia's American-made F-16s intercepted U.S. Navy F-18 Hornets above Bawean island over the Java Sea.

Purchasing from Russia is especially attractive because, unlike other countries that develop and sell state-of-the-art fighters and ground-attack planes, Russia does not attach any political or economic preconditions, such as in Indonesia's bid to procure the jet fighters. Nor has Russia displayed any intention to interfere in Indonesia's internal affairs or to impose any sanctions in connection with any specific government decision.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri has said repeatedly that the decision to purchase from Russia was made because Indonesia adheres to a "free and active" foreign policy, adding that Indonesia can purchase arms and military equipment from any country in the world.

Still, the decision to procure the Russian warplanes is not free of risk, especially if it means "challenging" the U.S.

People may still remember that Megawati's father, founding president Sukarno, had to endure hard times with the U.S. when he decided to procure quite a large supply of arms and military equipment from the then Soviet Union in the early 1960s, including MIG-21 jet fighters, then considered to be among the best of their kind. The decision to procure the MIG-21s was made after his request to procure American warplanes -- to use in his campaign to claim West Irian as Indonesian territory -- was rejected by the U.S. government.

Some analysts attribute Sukarno's downfall at least in part to his political leanings toward the Soviet Union.

If it's true that history repeats itself, Megawati should carefully calculate her government's decision to turn to Russian jet fighters. True, Indonesia is free to buy arms from anywhere it likes, yet the President should seriously consider the possible impacts.

Especially if she wants to run for president again next year, she would need to take into account the financial burden to the country given the price of the Sukhois.

She should recall that her father's decision to procure arms and military equipment from the Soviet Union in the 1960s led Indonesia to a huge debt of $1 billion to the Soviet Union and its eastern European allies, as Indonesia was considered too poor to purchase such sophisticated weaponry in the 1960s.

She should also carefully consider the after-sales service and the availability of spare parts for the jet fighters, so as not to repeat her father's failure to properly maintain the Russian warplanes, no matter how sophisticated they are.