Thu, 17 Mar 2005

Succeeding China

The formal consolidation of Hu Jintao's power is complete. With his appointment as head of the Central Military Commission, China's state president is in full control of all the levers of power in the world's most-populous nation.

Hu's ascendance has been charted for the past three years since he took over from the venerable Jiang Zemin as secretary general of the Communist Party.

Aside from nuance, there is little fundamental difference between the two leaders. Both will continue to pursue modernization and market reforms to maintain China's growing economic prowess. On the diplomatic and military fronts, Beijing will proceed with strategic moves to assert its role as a regional superpower.

It will not be long before China is well and truly the United States' peer in global politics.

It is encouraging that the diplomatic gestures on Beijing's part have lessened the once-popular rhetoric of a "China threat". Beijing's willingness to engage in multilateral forums and partake in initiatives introduced by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) places this giant in an amiable standing among members of the regional grouping.

Beijing's resolute pursuit of positive engagement rather than intimidation with Southeast Asian nations has allowed it to be embraced as an asset to mutual prosperity and regional stability.

China's active diplomacy to try and bring Pyongyang back to the table in de-nuclearization talks is also a hopeful sign that it is willing to assume a positive role as a responsible power to ease tensions in East Asia.

Nevertheless the nuances of domestic politics often require tough talk. As a civilian leader who is consolidating power, it was important for Hu to show a strong stance towards the issue of Taiwan. Within the intricate realm of domestic politics in China, Hu needed to show strong resolve. Hence the recent saber-rattling about the potential use of force should Taiwan declare its independence.

Recently, China passed a law that legitimizes the nation to use force to ensure Taiwan does not become a breakaway province. However, with or without the law, it has always been highly likely that China would take military action should Taiwan declare independence. Therefore, these latest developments from Beijing should not be perceived as an altogether drastic change in policy.

Far from muddying the waters, what it actually does is clarify a situation that has always existed. The latest developments highlight the need for restraint and continued dialog by all parties concerned.

Most countries in the world, including Indonesia and the United States, adhere to a one-China policy. However none condone the use of force in any unification process.

Given its diplomatic success in alleviating fears of a rising China in the past decade, Beijing must realize that engagement and diplomacy are the best avenues to ensuring international support for its cross-strait claim.

We also urge the administration of Taiwan President Chen Shui- bian to exercise restraint. Rash action on his, or on the part of his pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, would only upset an already delicate balance.

Taiwan, in effect, hedges its security on the protection of other parties. Therefore it should take carefully into consideration how its personal designs would impact on those countries whose forces are committed to maintaining that regional security.

The "one country, two systems" concept should be further pursued through concrete action. With cross-straits trade as a basis, more programs and initiatives should be introduced to forge a more habitual working relationship.

Both sides would benefit from cooperation rather than focussing on negative feelings of acrimony.