Strange bedfellows

A recent political maneuver by Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party (PAN), Abdurrahman Wahid of the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to confront the so- called status quo forces is not really as significant as it might appear to some. The reason for this is that except for having what they perceive to be a common status quo enemy (meaning Golkar Party and President B.J. Habibie), they have very little else in common in terms of ideology or party platform.

To start with, Megawati herself is basically pro-status quo (i.e. in favor of the existing situation). Not only does she oppose any amendment to the 1945 Constitution as well as any meaningful autonomy for the provinces, she also supports the dual function of the armed forces. These are all issues on which Amien Rais has a completely opposite view. Furthermore, the vast majority of Amien Rais' followers, being mostly devout Muslims from Muhammadiyah, will surely find Megawati's ambiguous or syncretic religious beliefs and Abdurrahman Wahid's secular ideology quite repugnant.

The trouble with Amien Rais is that he is so ambitious and obsessed with becoming the next president, he is prepared to do anything to achieve that ambition, including forming a senseless alliance with strange bedfellows. It is clear that the current usage of status quo and reformist is inconsistent, confusing and evidently merely self-serving.

Regarding the elections, I think one thing some political observers tend to overlook is the fact that Golkar and Islamic parties, for ethnic and religious reasons, are relatively stronger outside of Java than within Java. While these two regions practically have the same amount of representation in the House of Representatives, namely about 230 seats each, the region outside of Java has more representatives in the People's Consultative Assembly, which elects the president.

Another factor also overlooked by some observers is that the only people likely to vote for PDI Perjuangan are non-Muslims and strictly nominal or syncretic Muslims, who together constitute only 10 percent to 15 percent of the population. Based on these considerations, as well as the results of all previous elections, I would estimate the combined votes for the four groupings of political parties as follows: (1) Islamic group, consisting of about a dozen parties: 30 percent to 35 percent (2) PAN: 10 percent to 15 percent (3) Golkar and allies: 25 percent to 30 percent (4) PDI Perjuangan, PKB and allies: 25 percent to 30 percent.

Under these circumstances, the Islamic parties might first consider the possibility of forming a coalition with PAN, but this may not come to anything as their combined votes may not amount to 50 percent of the seats in the House. A more likely alternative, I think, is a negotiated coalition between the Islamic parties and Golkar, since not only could they control more than 50 percent of the seats in the House, but their presidential candidate, either from Golkar (not necessarily B.J. Habibie) or one of the Islamic parties, could also win convincingly in the Assembly.

Although the above is essentially conjectural, one thing seems to be virtually certain: the chance that either Megawati or Abdurrahman Wahid will be elected by the Assembly as the next president is very slim.

MASLI ARMAN

Jakarta