Strange bedfellows

Strange bedfellows

A recent political maneuver by Amien Rais of the National
Mandate Party (PAN), Abdurrahman Wahid of the National Awakening
Party (PKB) and Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to confront the so-
called status quo forces is not really as significant as it might
appear to some. The reason for this is that except for having
what they perceive to be a common status quo enemy (meaning
Golkar Party and President B.J. Habibie), they have very little
else in common in terms of ideology or party platform.

To start with, Megawati herself is basically pro-status quo
(i.e. in favor of the existing situation). Not only does she
oppose any amendment to the 1945 Constitution as well as any
meaningful autonomy for the provinces, she also supports the dual
function of the armed forces. These are all issues on which Amien
Rais has a completely opposite view. Furthermore, the vast
majority of Amien Rais' followers, being mostly devout Muslims
from Muhammadiyah, will surely find Megawati's ambiguous or
syncretic religious beliefs and Abdurrahman Wahid's secular
ideology quite repugnant.

The trouble with Amien Rais is that he is so ambitious and
obsessed with becoming the next president, he is prepared to do
anything to achieve that ambition, including forming a senseless
alliance with strange bedfellows. It is clear that the current
usage of status quo and reformist is inconsistent, confusing and
evidently merely self-serving.

Regarding the elections, I think one thing some political
observers tend to overlook is the fact that Golkar and Islamic
parties, for ethnic and religious reasons, are relatively
stronger outside of Java than within Java. While these two
regions practically have the same amount of representation in the
House of Representatives, namely about 230 seats each, the region
outside of Java has more representatives in the People's
Consultative Assembly, which elects the president.

Another factor also overlooked by some observers is that the
only people likely to vote for PDI Perjuangan are non-Muslims and
strictly nominal or syncretic Muslims, who together constitute
only 10 percent to 15 percent of the population. Based on these
considerations, as well as the results of all previous elections,
I would estimate the combined votes for the four groupings of
political parties as follows: (1) Islamic group, consisting of
about a dozen parties: 30 percent to 35 percent (2) PAN: 10
percent to 15 percent (3) Golkar and allies: 25 percent to 30
percent (4) PDI Perjuangan, PKB and allies: 25 percent to 30
percent.

Under these circumstances, the Islamic parties might first
consider the possibility of forming a coalition with PAN, but
this may not come to anything as their combined votes
may not amount to 50 percent of the seats in the House. A more
likely alternative, I think, is a negotiated coalition between
the Islamic parties and Golkar, since not only could they control
more than 50 percent of the seats in the House, but their
presidential candidate, either from Golkar (not necessarily B.J.
Habibie) or one of the Islamic parties, could also win
convincingly in the Assembly.

Although the above is essentially conjectural, one thing seems
to be virtually certain: the chance that either Megawati or
Abdurrahman Wahid will be elected by the Assembly as the next
president is very slim.

MASLI ARMAN

Jakarta