Stop bombing Afghanistan

As the U.S. military strikes in Afghanistan enter their second month beginning today, it is worth pondering just what has been achieved by the 30-day intensive bombing campaign in the poor Central Asian country.

The U.S. today is nowhere near -- to use President George W. Bush's expression -- to smoking the terrorists out of their holes. Neither is the Taliban regime in Afghanistan anywhere near to collapse, in spite of the barrage of bombs falling on its country. Measured in terms of these two chief objectives, the U.S. bombing campaign this past month has in fact been a big flop.

Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda organization, which Washington blames for the September 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S., are still comfortably ensconced in Afghanistan. Bin Laden is still sending his videotaped messages to the world, inciting Muslims to take up arms against the U.S.

The Taliban remains as strong today, if not even stronger, than it ever was before the U.S. campaign began. This is certainly true politically, as the Taliban's popularity has risen, and not only among people in Afghanistan. Increasingly, people from predominantly Muslim countries are heeding the Taliban's call for a jihad, even if they deplore the radical brand of Islam that the Taliban have imposed on Afghanistan.

The U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan has not only failed in terms of its main stated goals, but it is becoming more counterproductive and backfiring on Washington's interests.

In the absence of independent verification inside Taliban- controlled Afghanistan, it is hard to know the precise number of civilian casualties, or "collateral damage", resulting from the bombing campaign. But we do know, and the military planners in Washington know it too, that the number is in the hundreds, and is rising fast.

In the first two or three weeks of the campaign, Pentagon officials admitted that the surgical, target-specific air strikes missed their targets from time to time, hitting civilian facilities or residential areas. With the use of B-52 bombers since last week, the bombing in Afghanistan has become even more indiscriminate. Civilian casualties are bound to have increased.

Without the benefit of TV footage of the U.S. carpet bombing in Afghanistan, it is easy to see why flashbacks from the Vietnam War have come to haunt us. Within the U.S., more Americans are beginning to question the effectiveness of the campaign, as seen in the opinion and editorial pages of major U.S. journals.

While Americans still overwhelmingly back the military campaign, public opinion will drastically change if and when the death toll of civilian Afghans reaches what they view as unpalatable. Whatever level is regarded as acceptable, Americans should be reminded that these Afghans are just as innocent as those who died in the World Trade Center in September.

Washington cannot take international public opinion, which is still overwhelmingly behind the U.S.-led war against terror, for granted if the bombing in Afghanistan continues. Countries may still support the war against terrorism, but many, like Indonesia disapprove of the means.

The U.S. is also putting its propaganda war in jeopardy. In some quarters in predominantly Muslim countries, the uneven war in Afghanistan is increasingly perceived as a "David versus Goliath" fight. Portrayed as such, more people will sympathize with bin Laden and the Taliban, whatever horrible deeds they may have committed before.

Given that the military campaign has been ineffective, the U.S. should consider other options in its war against terror.

Committing ground troops, as suggested by the Pentagon hawks, is unlikely to bring the U.S. any closer to its objectives. The Taliban could easily go underground and launch a guerrilla war against the U.S.

That leaves diplomacy and humanitarian programs as the only viable options at Washington's disposal. The U.S., along with the UN, should continue to explore the establishment of an alternative administration in Kabul, working at the same time to sow dissent within the Taliban. The provision of humanitarian aid for the seven million displaced Afghans would go a long way to winning their hearts and minds. They will provide the main support for a new regime in Kabul.

Only then can the Taliban be brought to their knees, opening the way for the U.S. to go after bin Laden and his group. If all this sounds time-consuming, remember it was the U.S. that repeatedly said the fight against terrorism would be neither easy nor quick. Americans are already committed to go the length in this war. Let's hope they use the proper method.