Stocks, rupiah to benefit from Mandiri IPO plan
Stocks, rupiah to benefit from Mandiri IPO plan
Dadan Wijaksana
The Jakarta Post
Jakarta
As overall sentiment remains positive, the Jakarta Composite
Index is expected to resume its upward trend this week from a
slight decline posted last week, said a dealer.
"The decline (in last week's trading) had nothing to do with
market sentiment. It was more investors waiting for fresh news,
which could be seen from the daily trading average.
"With sentiment relatively unharmed, I think the index has a
good chance of rising again, maybe to a level of about 515
points," a stock dealer told The Jakarta Post over the weekend.
The index ended last week at 506.78 points, down 0.9 percent
from 511.45 the week before, with trading value averaging
Rp 359.3 billion (US$43.8 million), down from Rp 469.2 billion
recorded two weeks ago.
She added that the index would also take advantage of an
expected bullish sentiment toward the rupiah, propelled by the
initial public offering (IPO) of state-owned giant Bank Mandiri
this week.
Under the Mandiri IPO plan, the government will offer up to a
20 percent stake in the country's largest bank, hoping to rake in
about $330 million in proceeds.
With about two-thirds of the cash likely to come from foreign
investors -- as what the government has optimistically said,
demand for the rupiah will rise, boosting sentiment on the local
currency, in what will also bolster sentiment on the capital
market as well, notably in banking shares.
The only obstacle that could derail the index's performance,
the dealer said, was the case surrounding publicly listed state
telecommunications firm PT Telkom.
"If we do not get a clear message from Telkom that there will
not be a problem in the future over its financial report
auditing, then there is a strong chance that it will hamper the
index," she added.
Telkom appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to audit its
2002 financial report -- to avoid the delisting of its shares in
the U.S. stock market -- but since the audit process might take
more than two months, concerns abound that Telkom will not be
able to meet the July 15 deadline set by the U.S. Securities &
Exchange Commission (SEC).
Meanwhile in the currency market, a healthy demand for the
rupiah, expected from the Mandiri IPO plan, will push the local
currency higher against the U.S. dollar, a currency dealer said.
"If the government is right that two-thirds of the buyers will
be coming from overseas, then we're going to see strong demand
for the rupiah, because investors need to convert their funds to
the local currency," he said.
As such, this will boost sentiment for the rupiah, he added.
"But, it will still be within a narrow range, with regard to the
recent strong showing of the dollar against the world's major
currencies."
The rupiah finished the week lower at Rp 8,290 to the dollar,
compared to Rp 8,240 the week before.
The country has been witnessing a surge in capital inflows for
the past several months as investors are enticed by sales of
local assets -- including sales of IBRA's assets, divestment and
privatization programs -- and high-yielding bonds.