Stirring a disquiet dragon

Two very important events quietly elapsed in China this past week, both of which bear long term implications that will affect Southeast Asia for years to come.

The first was the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to Beijing. The second was the issuance of a white paper entitled Building Political Democracy in China by the State Council Information Office.

Rumsfeld's visit -- a likely precursor to an impending visit by U.S. President George W. Bush -- was another sign of Washington's recognition of the need to change its approach toward Beijing to adopt a more cooperative stance. America is a country preoccupied with challenges to its hegemony, and since the breakup of the Soviet Union it has nominated China as its rival.

With a population of over 1.3 billion people and an economy that is projected to overtake the United States within three decades, it is no surprise that Washington feels uneasy about a country it has not succeeded in penetrating politically.

However, as China increasingly integrates itself into the international political and economic system, it has become clear that it clearly needs a benign international environment to face the domestic challenges of economic and social change.

Washington has recognized this opportunity, and has recently adopted a slightly more conciliatory approach. It is exploiting Chinese leaders' penchant for reaping the economic rewards of "market socialism", and knows that to keep investment dollars coming China must comply with a global economic system that is largely dominated by the United States and its capitalist allies.

In short the message is clear: Work against us and your economy will slowly suffer; Work with us and you will get rich.

For Southeast Asia, growing collaboration between these two giants bodes well for regional stability and sustained economic growth. The fact is that while the countries of Southeast Asia will determine the fate of their own region, the paradigm in which they work in will be set in part by China and the United States.

The irony of China, however, is that while tremendous (economic) progress is occurring on one front, there is stagnation on the other.

The Chinese government's issuance of a white paper on political democracy, the first of its kind, reinforces the belief that significant political reform remains an issue of stagnation. In a nutshell the extensive document justifies the monopoly of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at the political helm for many years to come.

"Leadership by the CPC is the fundamental guarantee for the people to be the masters of the country and the country to be ruled by law," read the document which also asserted that "democracy is generated internally, not imposed by external forces".

While acknowledging the shortcomings of the present system -- which includes corruption, political participation and the need for a mechanism of restraint over the use of power -- the white paper insists that it is only under the CPC that socialist democracy with Chinese characteristics can be achieved.

These arguments actually have not shifted from past rhetoric which considers liberal democracy a source of spiritual pollution.

The CPC may have embraced the market economy, but politically the system remains very much entrenched in a strict autocracy. Eventually it is this very refusal to accept multi-party democracy which will result in China continuously being perceived with a degree of suspicion and bring it into "conflict" with more politically liberal minded states, including those in Southeast Asia.

What China has to learn is that its biggest test will not simply be ensuring economic equity and welfare for its people or even its relationship with the United States, but the disquiet that results from the question of the CPC's moral legitimacy.