S'pore concerned about RI ties post-Soeharto era

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia-Singapore relations have reached a peak, but future ties will hinge on whether Indonesia can promise political stability after President Soeharto is no longer at the national helm, according to a discussion.

"Singaporeans believe it is difficult to predict the future leadership in Indonesia. The lack of predictability is equated with uncertainty," according to Yang Razali Kassim, director of the Association of Muslim Professionals.

He was addressing the Conference on Indonesia and Singapore: Cooperation for Competitiveness in a Changing World, held by the Center for Information and Development Studies of Indonesia, and the Institute of Policy Studies of Singapore. Around 50 scholars, journalists, and entrepreneurs are participating in the two-day conference which will conclude today.

"So used to living in a country where orderliness is a norm, the uncertain nature of future ties with Indonesia can be unsettling to them," Kassim said.

Earlier he had said that for a country which was in the 1960s viewed with some suspicion, Singapore's growing closeness with Indonesia underscores the fundamental change in mutual perceptions between the two countries. Singapore has won the confidence of Indonesia, while Jakarta is able to ease Singapore's concern in such sensitive areas as national security.

"Relations have scaled a new peak. The dominant feature in ties now is not economic rivalry, but cooperation for competitiveness," he said. He attributed the positive condition to, among other things, Singapore's willingness to "recognize and accept Indonesia's position as a regional leader".

Which is why Singapore is very interested in a continuously stable Indonesia, even after Soeharto is no longer president, he pointed out.

Indonesia's political scientist Amir Santoso, however, earlier in the day assured that the relationship between Indonesia and Singapore can only improve, given the absence of potential political and other disputes between the two.

He pointed out that it is very likely that Indonesia will remain politically stable in several years to come.

Amir, a staff lecturer at the University of Indonesia's School of Social and Political Sciences, identified three factors determining the success of Indonesian development.

The first is "the consensus among civilian and military elites that a stable situation is needed if economic planning is to be implemented without serious obstacles".

Amir identified the second factor as the power holder's strategy to reduce political participation, thus reducing the potential for conflicts.

Amir's view on the second factor invited criticism from, among others, Achmad Tirtosudiro of the Indonesian Association of Moslem Intellectuals who said Amir had "antagonized democratization with prosperity".

The third factor that Amir identified was the fact that "the political stability enjoyed by Indonesia for three decades is the result of strong leadership by President Soeharto, supported by the Armed Forces (ABRI) and society". The semi-feudalistic society with a patron-client relationship is instrumental in ensuring stability and development, he pointed out.

While Amir reasoned that Indonesia benefits from the status quo, Walter Woon of the University of Singapore explained that Singaporeans are beginning to react against the country's paternalism.

For three decades, Singaporeans lived under the "father-knows- best" government of Lee Kuan Yew that did not hesitate to react very strongly against criticism, Woon said.

"Things are changing slowly, reaction against paternalism can be seen in ways to keep the government on its toes."

"This desire for an opposition in Parliament will remain a feature of Singaporean politics from now on."

He did add that, "We are not headed towards revolution. By many economic standards, Singapore is now a developed country". "Singaporeans have much to lose from radical change."

Other speakers in yesterday's session included Dipo Alam, bureau chief of Industry and Mining at the National Development Planning Agency who spoke about the industrial strategy to achieve economic competitiveness.

Since the early 1980s, Indonesia and Singapore, thanks largely to the special rapport between President Soeharto and Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, have consciously made efforts to strengthen ties.

For the last five years, Singaporean investments in Indonesia ranked among the top 10, at one point even reaching number one in 1993. Last year, however, Singapore slipped to number six, in part due to the diverting pull of other emerging economies such as China, India and Vietnam. (swe)