Speed up development to appease S. Thailand

The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Imposition of martial law and the Prime Minister's order that he wants the case cracked within two weeks are signs that the Sunday morning raid on an armory in southern Thailand has shaken the country. Any coordinated attack on army camps in a depressed region known for its separatist groups and unhappy Muslim population is a serious matter for the government of a heavily Buddhist nation.

The five southern provinces with their Muslim majority have for decades posed an assimilation and development challenge. Moreover, a number of soldiers were killed in the Sunday attacks and 20 schools burned to the ground. The arson may have been a diversion while saboteurs made for the army camp.

But destruction of school buildings could bear a political message that the pace of social progress in the south is slow, or that conversely, development is anathema to anti-national groups bent on having this part of the country hived off. Most problematic is that the theft of rifles and small arms, said to number hundreds, raises security questions. The arms were plainly the raiders' objective.

In previous attacks, most recently in April last year, M-16 rifles and side arms were taken. Countries in the vicinity -- Malaysia especially, but also Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore -- would be looking to Bangkok to ascertain if there was a transnational terrorist connection. All of them face the common threat of terrorist incursions and agitation-propaganda activity by small disaffected groups.

Both Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his deputy Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who as a former army chief has considerable experience in counter-insurgency, have blamed bandits and smuggling rings associated with them for the attacks. General Chavalit also acknowledged a long-standing operational problem in the south when he said corrupt police and soldiers could have conspired with the raiders.

As he noted, the attacks were so well-executed an inside link had to be suspected. If this is so, the southern command can expect a shake-up -- the sooner the better. The military is central in shoring up the southern region's civilian authority, which in turn has to keep local resentments in check.

Neither man saw this as an issue of Muslim separatist groups such as the Pattani United Liberation Organization and Barisan Revolusi Nasional renewing a campaign which has actually tapered off since the 1980s.

But while it is premature to discount a revival of separatist activity, Thaksin's suggestion, that "outside influences" and "mujahideen" connected with the Aceh rebellion in Indonesia could be involved, must place on his government the onus of ruling out external terrorist links.

Malaysia has taken the correct approach of increasing border patrols to help the Thais apprehend the suspects. Thailand is enjoying an economic boom which Thaksin would want to ensure is not sabotaged by rebellion, which could unnerve investors and tourists. The trouble with Southeast Asia is that a murky line separates political insurgency from criminal activity such as kidnap, extortion and arms-running to finance operations.

For Thailand, the best inoculation against social grievances growing into alienation is to speed up the south's development, and building trust between the people and officialdom. Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, who endured arson and arms thefts in his time, said after last April's attack he thought the violence had ebbed with growth projects coming to the south, "but it turns out it is increasing". This should not be what Thaksin has to pronounce as well.