Speculation rife in Manila

The next presidential polls in the Philippines are still a good year-and-a-half away, but rumor, speculation and scandal are already stirring up the political scene in Manila.

Politics-gazing has always been a year-round preoccupation in this thriving, if noisy, democracy. But the political mill has been especially busy since President Fidel Ramos underwent surgery for a clogged carotid artery in December and as the end of his six-year term in June 1998 nears.

Ramos, under whose leadership the Philippines' economic recovery has taken off in the last five years, is barred by the Constitution from seeking a second term. This legal limit, along with Ramos' health, has thrown the field wide open to what is shaping up to be a long list of aspirants for the presidency.

As political analyst Amando Doironila wrote in the Philippine Daily Inquirer: "President Ramos' health setback opened early Pandora's box of unbridled political positioning as the president's heir."

At least seven persons, a mix of politicians and cabinet officials, are being mentioned as potential presidential candidates -- and have not dissuaded speculation about their ambitions. They include Vice President Joseph Estrada, Defense Minister Renato de Villa, House Speaker Jose de Venecia, Finance Secretary Roberto de Ocampo, and Senators Gloria Arroyo, Edgardo Angara and Miriam Santiago.

Estrada, the country's tough-talking anticrime chief, is popular among ordinary voters because he used to be a movie star. De Villa, de Venecia and de Ocampo are said to be vying for Ramos' endorsement in the 1998 polls. But the president, who won in 1992 after being endorsed by his predecessor Corazon Aquino, has kept everyone guessing by saying no more than he is working on his "short list" of candidates.

A career soldier and former military chief like Ramos, de Villa had brushed off speculations about his presidential ambitions -- until after Ramos' surgery when he said he would make a final decision in a few months.

Talk of de Villa and de Ocampo as potential candidates highlights the fact that Ramos' achievements -- and a desire to see the economic upturn under his leadership continue -- ranks as a key consideration among political supporters and voters.

One important element for any presidential candidate to succeed is support from the Catholic church. Indeed, the Catholic church was instrumental in rallying Filipinos to press for the ousting of the Marcos regime in 1985 and in catapulting Corazon Aquino to the presidency. Ramos, a non-Catholic, has often been at odds with the church and it is an open secret that there's friction between him and Cardinal Sin, the archbishop of Manila.

There have been instances when church officials are allowed to endorse a candidate and because of the media-hype surrounding the presidential election and the bid to get Ramos reelected, the Bishops' Council might be compelled to take a united stand.

Whoever succeeds Ramos must bear in mind that the Philippines has always been considered a bastion of democracy and freedom in Southeast Asia. Under no circumstances must the rights of the Filipino people, enshrined so dearly in the Constitution, be compromised either for the sake of the market or appeasing some foreign power.

-- The Nation, Bangkok