Speculation rife in Manila

Speculation rife in Manila

The next presidential polls in the Philippines are still a
good year-and-a-half away, but rumor, speculation and scandal are
already stirring up the political scene in Manila.

Politics-gazing has always been a year-round preoccupation in
this thriving, if noisy, democracy. But the political mill has
been especially busy since President Fidel Ramos underwent
surgery for a clogged carotid artery in December and as the end
of his six-year term in June 1998 nears.

Ramos, under whose leadership the Philippines' economic
recovery has taken off in the last five years, is barred by the
Constitution from seeking a second term. This legal limit, along
with Ramos' health, has thrown the field wide open to what is
shaping up to be a long list of aspirants for the presidency.

As political analyst Amando Doironila wrote in the Philippine
Daily Inquirer: "President Ramos' health setback opened early
Pandora's box of unbridled political positioning as the
president's heir."

At least seven persons, a mix of politicians and cabinet
officials, are being mentioned as potential presidential
candidates -- and have not dissuaded speculation about their
ambitions. They include Vice President Joseph Estrada, Defense
Minister Renato de Villa, House Speaker Jose de Venecia, Finance
Secretary Roberto de Ocampo, and Senators Gloria Arroyo, Edgardo
Angara and Miriam Santiago.

Estrada, the country's tough-talking anticrime chief, is
popular among ordinary voters because he used to be a movie star.
De Villa, de Venecia and de Ocampo are said to be vying for
Ramos' endorsement in the 1998 polls. But the president, who won
in 1992 after being endorsed by his predecessor Corazon Aquino,
has kept everyone guessing by saying no more than he is working
on his "short list" of candidates.

A career soldier and former military chief like Ramos, de
Villa had brushed off speculations about his presidential
ambitions -- until after Ramos' surgery when he said he would
make a final decision in a few months.

Talk of de Villa and de Ocampo as potential candidates
highlights the fact that Ramos' achievements -- and a desire to
see the economic upturn under his leadership continue -- ranks as
a key consideration among political supporters and voters.

One important element for any presidential candidate to
succeed is support from the Catholic church. Indeed, the Catholic
church was instrumental in rallying Filipinos to press for the
ousting of the Marcos regime in 1985 and in catapulting Corazon
Aquino to the presidency. Ramos, a non-Catholic, has often been
at odds with the church and it is an open secret that there's
friction between him and Cardinal Sin, the archbishop of Manila.

There have been instances when church officials are allowed to
endorse a candidate and because of the media-hype surrounding the
presidential election and the bid to get Ramos reelected, the
Bishops' Council might be compelled to take a united stand.

Whoever succeeds Ramos must bear in mind that the Philippines
has always been considered a bastion of democracy and freedom in
Southeast Asia. Under no circumstances must the rights of the
Filipino people, enshrined so dearly in the Constitution, be
compromised either for the sake of the market or appeasing some
foreign power.

-- The Nation, Bangkok