Specter of Cabinet reshuffle haunts President Susilo

John McBeth, The Straits Times/Asian News Network, Singapore

It has been the hottest topic in Indonesian politics, but it was left to one of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's own ministers to utter what for many Indonesian commentators has now become almost the unthinkable. 'I'm wondering,' the minister mused over a snack at a holiday gathering, 'whether the President really intends to reshuffle the Cabinet at all.'

Wishful thinking or not, it was a novel idea.

In the days that have followed, both President Susilo and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla have made it clear that all the talk of a major shake-up is misplaced. In fact, for all the implications it conveyed at the time, the promise the President actually made soon after his Oct 20 inauguration last year was only to review the performance of his 36 ministers, not necessarily to ring in wholesale changes.

The reshuffle issue has become such a political football that the President must now regret ever raising expectations in the first place. In the blush of the early days of his presidency, it probably sounded like a good populist thing to do to get his administration off on the right foot and perhaps deflect criticism of some of his choices.

Predictably, it took on a life of its own. He should not have been surprised. The ambitious laundry list of things he had said he intended to accomplish during his first 100 days of office has backfired on him as well.

Make promises or set targets and the Indonesia media - ever willing to hold the government's feet to the fire after decades in the wilderness - tends to take you at your word.

Unlike in South Korea or Japan, resignations are unheard of in Indonesia, where public officials find it difficult to take responsibility for anything. Reshuffles have been equally uncommon. They were virtually unknown during former president Soeharto's 32-year rule, probably because he believed that any change would have been a reflection on his judgment.

Even in the reform era, they have been as rare as a corruption conviction.

Aides say Susilo has yet to get around to evaluating the performance reports his ministers were asked to submit, let alone start interviewing prospective new Cabinet members, as some reports have suggested. Yet editorial writers continue to clamor for change as if it has already been decreed. The President's political allies are in the papers every day, echoing the demands of their rank-and-file members for a bigger share of the Cabinet posts.

Public opinion surveys by the Indonesian Survey Institute and Kompas daily may have shown rising dissatisfaction with Yudhoyono, but that is hardly a surprise after the government's decision to raise fuel prices by an average of 126 percent.

The fact that is conveniently ignored by those who use this as the reason for wanting the economic team changed is that the price hike was a Cabinet policy decision, which had the backing of the President and his coalition partners.

Although a lot of people have been hurt by the hike, Susilo's critics realize it had to be done to get the country out of the hole that successive governments have dug. Indonesia has lived far too long in a fool's paradise; it is a nation that, even today, simply will not make the not-so-hard choices necessary to take full advantage of its natural advantages.

Opinion surveys may be indicative of the public mood, but only up to a point. Ask anyone if there should be change, and they will almost certainly say 'yes'.

So it was with the respondents who were asked the obligatory leading question whether they thought Susilo should reshuffle his ministers. What else would they have said? No one wants to say he or she is satisfied, even in a country where expectations have never been very high to start with.

Public opinion may be fickle, but for all the large bankroll of goodwill he has been forced to spend to get the country through a difficult time, the President still has an approval rating well over the 50 percent mark.

What he does with his Cabinet and whether it carries with it the risk of a further fall in his popularity is a political calculation he alone will have to make. After all, it is his prerogative in the country's decidedly presidential system.

Obviously, there are serious political issues to consider. Jusuf's majority 128-seat Golkar party likes being at the center of power too much to contemplate withdrawing its support.

But with only two of its people in the Cabinet - Economic Coordinating Minister Aburizal Bakrie and Manpower Minister Fahmi Idris - it is poorly represented, compared with the smaller Democrat Party and the Islamic-flavored Justice and Prosperity (PKS) and Crescent Star parties that form the rest of the ruling coalition.

PKS, for its part, has threatened to quit the coalition if Susilo does not involve the party more in his decision-making and fails to make the changes it feels are necessary to raise Cabinet standards.

Party sources say that could well mean dumping its own three underperforming ministers (sport, agriculture and housing), whose selections in the first place were more a matter of their outside connections.

Although the departure of PKS would still leave the government with a majority in Parliament, it would represent a setback for Susilo all the same.

'If we quit, people will see that there's something wrong,' says legislator and leading central board member Zulkieflimansyah.

It would also be a blow to Indonesia's fastest-growing party itself, given the ambitions it has for the 2009 elections and the invaluable experience it is gaining by staying within the government.

Still, most Indonesian businessmen see few Cabinet changes as Indonesia braces itself for a difficult 2006.

If the economic team has been guilty of anything, it would be its failure to appreciate the full impact of the fuel price increase and its prolonged effect on consumer spending.

What's more, the government's failure to introduce crucial reforms means the resultant slowdown in growth is unlikely to be offset by any surge in foreign investment.

There is also widespread concern over the weakness of Bank Indonesia, regarded in financial circles at least as a more fundamental problem.

Says one senior bank executive: 'When the history of this period is written, it won't be the fuel prices that are causing the problems, but the failure of a supposedly independent central bank to raise interest rates six months ago.'