Specter of Cabinet reshuffle haunts President Susilo

Specter of Cabinet reshuffle haunts President Susilo

John McBeth, The Straits Times/Asian News Network, Singapore

It has been the hottest topic in Indonesian politics, but it
was left to one of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's own
ministers to utter what for many Indonesian commentators has now
become almost the unthinkable.
'I'm wondering,' the minister mused over a snack at a holiday
gathering, 'whether the President really intends to reshuffle the
Cabinet at all.'

Wishful thinking or not, it was a novel idea.

In the days that have followed, both President Susilo and
Vice-President Jusuf Kalla have made it clear that all the talk
of a major shake-up is misplaced. In fact, for all the
implications it conveyed at the time, the promise the President
actually made soon after his Oct 20 inauguration last year was
only to review the performance of his 36 ministers, not
necessarily to ring in wholesale changes.

The reshuffle issue has become such a political football that
the President must now regret ever raising expectations in the
first place. In the blush of the early days of his presidency, it
probably sounded like a good populist thing to do to get his
administration off on the right foot and perhaps deflect
criticism of some of his choices.

Predictably, it took on a life of its own. He should not have
been surprised. The ambitious laundry list of things he had said
he intended to accomplish during his first 100 days of office has
backfired on him as well.

Make promises or set targets and the Indonesia media - ever
willing to hold the government's feet to the fire after decades
in the wilderness - tends to take you at your word.

Unlike in South Korea or Japan, resignations are unheard of in
Indonesia, where public officials find it difficult to take
responsibility for anything. Reshuffles have been equally
uncommon. They were virtually unknown during former president
Soeharto's 32-year rule, probably because he believed that any
change would have been a reflection on his judgment.

Even in the reform era, they have been as rare as a corruption
conviction.

Aides say Susilo has yet to get around to evaluating the
performance reports his ministers were asked to submit, let alone
start interviewing prospective new Cabinet members, as some
reports have suggested. Yet editorial writers continue to clamor
for change as if it has already been decreed. The President's
political allies are in the papers every day, echoing the demands
of their rank-and-file members for a bigger share of the Cabinet
posts.

Public opinion surveys by the Indonesian Survey Institute and
Kompas daily may have shown rising dissatisfaction with
Yudhoyono, but that is hardly a surprise after the government's
decision to raise fuel prices by an average of 126 percent.

The fact that is conveniently ignored by those who use this as
the reason for wanting the economic team changed is that the
price hike was a Cabinet policy decision, which had the backing
of the President and his coalition partners.

Although a lot of people have been hurt by the hike, Susilo's
critics realize it had to be done to get the country out of the
hole that successive governments have dug. Indonesia has lived
far too long in a fool's paradise; it is a nation that, even
today, simply will not make the not-so-hard choices necessary to
take full advantage of its natural advantages.

Opinion surveys may be indicative of the public mood, but only
up to a point. Ask anyone if there should be change, and they
will almost certainly say 'yes'.

So it was with the respondents who were asked the obligatory
leading question whether they thought Susilo should reshuffle his
ministers. What else would they have said? No one wants to say he
or she is satisfied, even in a country where expectations have
never been very high to start with.

Public opinion may be fickle, but for all the large bankroll
of goodwill he has been forced to spend to get the country
through a difficult time, the President still has an approval
rating well over the 50 percent mark.

What he does with his Cabinet and whether it carries with it
the risk of a further fall in his popularity is a political
calculation he alone will have to make. After all, it is his
prerogative in the country's decidedly presidential system.

Obviously, there are serious political issues to consider.
Jusuf's majority 128-seat Golkar party likes being at the center
of power too much to contemplate withdrawing its support.

But with only two of its people in the Cabinet - Economic
Coordinating Minister Aburizal Bakrie and Manpower Minister Fahmi
Idris - it is poorly represented, compared with the smaller
Democrat Party and the Islamic-flavored Justice and Prosperity
(PKS) and Crescent Star parties that form the rest of the ruling
coalition.

PKS, for its part, has threatened to quit the coalition if
Susilo does not involve the party more in his decision-making and
fails to make the changes it feels are necessary to raise Cabinet
standards.

Party sources say that could well mean dumping its own three
underperforming ministers (sport, agriculture and housing), whose
selections in the first place were more a matter of their outside
connections.

Although the departure of PKS would still leave the government
with a majority in Parliament, it would represent a setback for
Susilo all the same.

'If we quit, people will see that there's something wrong,'
says legislator and leading central board member
Zulkieflimansyah.

It would also be a blow to Indonesia's fastest-growing party
itself, given the ambitions it has for the 2009 elections and the
invaluable experience it is gaining by staying within the
government.

Still, most Indonesian businessmen see few Cabinet changes as
Indonesia braces itself for a difficult 2006.

If the economic team has been guilty of anything, it would be
its failure to appreciate the full impact of the fuel price
increase and its prolonged effect on consumer spending.

What's more, the government's failure to introduce crucial
reforms means the resultant slowdown in growth is unlikely to be
offset by any surge in foreign investment.

There is also widespread concern over the weakness of Bank
Indonesia, regarded in financial circles at least as a more
fundamental problem.

Says one senior bank executive: 'When the history of this
period is written, it won't be the fuel prices that are causing
the problems, but the failure of a supposedly independent central
bank to raise interest rates six months ago.'