Spain could become a model for Indonesia

Spain could become a model for Indonesia

By Percival Manglano

JAKARTA (JP): As Indonesian politics lurch into uncharted
territory, it may seem advisable for parallels to be sought that
may shed light on things to come.

Looking around for countries with historical circumstances
parallel to those of Indonesia now, one obvious example comes to
mind: Thailand. Just like Indonesia's, Thailand's military has
traditionally played a central role in its politics.

Thailand, especially those events that occurred in 1973 and
1992, has found itself in situations similar to that Indonesia is
going through now.

In 1973 student demonstrations toppled a military government.
Subsequently, a democratic regime was installed but failed to
implement order and was itself brought down by a military coup
three years later.

In 1992, massive street demonstrations were staged against
Gen. Suchinda's decision to stay on as prime minister despite his
promises to the contrary. The ensuing massacre of demonstrators
by the army resulted in the resignation of Suchinda and a common
wisdom that the army was dealt a terrible blow that might keep it
away from politics for good.

This parallel may seem adequate if only because of Thailand's
proximity to Indonesia. Yet, geographic proximity is not
necessarily directly correlated to general relevance.

In fact, Spain is a geographically distant country whose
recent experience of transition from an authoritarian to a
democratic regime is directly relevant to Indonesia's present
situation.

Indonesia may be becoming a democratic country and, in doing
so, it should learn from the experiences of other countries. It
could do worse than to look at the Spanish transition example.

In November 1975, Spain's long-standing dictator, Gen. Franco,
died. His appointed successor was Prince Juan Carlos. Spain's
lack of a democratic tradition and the weakness of Juan Carlos'
public support did not bode well for the future. Indeed, Juan
Carlos was commonly nicknamed El Breve (the Short-Lived).

And yet, more than 20 years later, King Juan Carlos is the
popular head of state of a flourishing democracy that no one in
his right mind would dream of putting into question. Could
something similar happen in Indonesia?

The long list of parallels between Soeharto's Indonesia and
Franco's Spain are surprising.

Both men were conservative ex-generals; both came to power
following traumatic bloody events involving communist and
military forces (the massacres of 1965 and 1966 in Indonesia, the
1936 through 1939 Spanish Civil War); both remained in power for
more than 30 years (31 in Soeharto's case, 36 for Franco; both
were extremely reluctant to appoint a successor; (Franco ignored
his ministers' appeals for an appointment until 1969, when, at
age 77, he decided in favor of Prince Juan Carlos); both
appointed economic technocrats as ministers who were successful
in achieving extraordinary rates of economic growth for their
countries.

Indonesia now and Spain at the time of Franco's death in 1975
also shared two important political characteristics. The first is
their unsuccessful experiments with democracy. President
Sukarno's attempts at democracy building were short-lived and
gave way in 1956 to the period of "Guided Democracy".

In Spain, the republic, created in 1931, lasted only five
years until a number of generals, including Franco, launched a
coup against the republican government.

The second characteristic is a lack of national cohesiveness:
the hostility provoked in certain regions by Java's dominance
within Indonesia is paralleled by (mainly) Catalan and Basque
nationalist backlashes against Castillian predominance in Spain.

Despite these parallels, important differences do exist
between the two political systems.

Three differences stand out. The first is the role of the
Armed Forces. Franco, after having used the army to rise to
power, gradually diminished its political power during his rule.
This clearly cannot be said about Indonesia.

The second is the existence in Spain of an institutional
alternative to Franco's rule in the form of the monarchy. Spain
benefited from the existence of a historical political
institution that represented an alternative to the Franco regime.
Again, Indonesia has no such alternative.

The third concerns the economic situation of the two
countries. Although the effects of the first oil crisis affected
Spain in 1975, its growth rate and general economic development
remained well above Indonesia's miserable present situation.

Indonesian developments over the past two months have produced
a situation not dissimilar to those in Spain following Franco's
death. In both cases, the past rulers' appointed successors have
been installed in power. Prospects for democracy for both
countries seemed and seem extremely dim, particularly considering
the precariousness regarding the heads of state. Uncertainty
ruled.

We can only speculate on what will happen in Indonesia in the
future. But we do know what happened in Spain. Aware of the
weakness of his position, particularly given that he had been
appointed by the previous ruler, King Juan Carlos decided to
appeal to the support of the largest political group in Spain,
the Spanish people. By giving the people the chance to act as an
agent of change, he laid the foundations for a bloodless
transition to democracy and, at the same time, ensured the
survival of the institution at the source of his legitimacy, the
monarchy.

Perhaps President B.J. Habibie is not a democrat at heart, but
this should not prevent him from ensuring a rapid transition to
democracy in Indonesia.

If he cares about peace in Indonesia, as the Spanish example
shows, the best option available is for the Indonesian people to
be involved in the process of political change. This will happen
by holding elections as quickly as they can be safely organized.

Nothing guaranteed that the Spanish transition would be
peaceful. Precedents were discouraging but it was ultimately
successful.

The same can happen in Indonesia. By ensuring such a legacy,
President Habibie, like King Juan Carlos, would ensure for
himself a prominent position in his country's history.

Percival Manglano received his M.A. from the Paul H. Nitze
School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins
University.