South Korea's new leader and 'Sunshine' policy

South Korea's new leader and 'Sunshine' policy

Byung-joon Ahn, Visiting Professor of International Relations
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo,
Project Syndicate

North Korea's decision to expel UN atomic energy inspectors is
but another reason to view Roh Moo-hyun's election as South
Korea's president two weeks ago as an historical watershed. The
beginning of his term not only coincides with one of the most
dangerous episodes on the Korean peninsula in decades, but his
presidency will also test South Korea's relations with the U.S.
to a degree that has not been seen for many years.

Roh's victory over Lee Hoi-chang signifies a generational
shift in Korean politics, with the young determined to gain a
freer hand in Korea's relations with the U.S. Indeed,
generational differences were the deciding factor in the race,
replacing the regional sentiments that dominated every
presidential race before this one. According to one report, over
60 percent of people in their twenties and thirties voted for Roh
to produce a margin of 2.3 percent in this first two-man,
head-to-head presidential race in 31 years.

Roh's populist and nationalist stance will be swiftly and
sorely tested by reality when he assumes power in February. But
couple the generational changeover that put him in office with a
strong popular desire for continued engagement with North Korea
-- notwithstanding North Korea's growing nuclear brinkmanship --
and the recipe is complete for disputes with the U.S.

Roh, a self-made man who passed a bar examination without
going to college and law school, succeeded in convincing voters
that he would usher in a new brand of politics reflecting South
Korea's growing wealth and middle class sentiments, thereby
sweeping away insider-dominated politics, regional bickering, and
factional struggles. His style and rhetoric projected the fresh
(for Korea!) image of a common man committed to eliminating the
ossified networks of cronyism and corruption.

For the first time in modern Korean history, the presidential
campaign actually debated the central issues facing the country,
rather than focussing on parties and personalities. Candidate Roh
called for a new relationship between South Korea and the U.S.,
one based on the principle of independence and equality. For
example, he said that he would not kow-tow to the U.S. or visit
Washington just for the sake of a photo opportunity He also
promised to continue President Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine policy"
of engagement with the North.

Remarkably, Roh won the election despite North Korea's
decision to reactivate nuclear reactors that had been frozen
since 1994. A few years ago this would have doomed Roh's
candidacy. That he overcame this obstacle without changing his
stance on engaging North Korea means that times have radically
changed. A popular yearning for change, not the security
situation, is now the overriding concern of ordinary Koreans.

Roh's campaign also took advantage of a rising tide of anti-
Americanism. The acquittal by a U.S. military court of two
American soldiers who accidentally killed two Korean schoolgirls
with their armored car last June triggered street demonstrations
across the country. Although President George W. Bush apologized
twice for the deaths of the girls, demands continue to escalate
for changing the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) that governs
the legal treatment of American troops stationed in South Korea.
Ordinary Koreans insist that U.S. soldiers who commit crimes
should be tried in Korean courts.

This expression of wounded national pride was enabled by South
Korea's tremendous performance in the World Cup football
tournament last summer, which helped convince ordinary Koreans
that their country was fully grown up -- and thus might be able
to stand on its own without the presence of 37,000 U.S. troops.
Indeed, many ordinary people now view the U.S. presence, and not
North Korea's communist regime, as the biggest obstacle to
unification. According to a recent poll, only 54.8 percent of
Koreans now support the stationing of American troops in the
country, while 31.7 percent oppose it.

These sentiments will form part of the diplomatic test shaping
Roh's presidency from the start, for he must re-engineer
relations with America at the same time that the Bush
administration is fretting about North Korea's nuclear ambitions
and its role in spreading weapons of mass destruction to rogue
states. For now, Korean voters -- apparently impervious to the
threat that North Korea's nuclear weapons poses -- support Roh's
policy of maintaining dialogue and economic exchange with the
North.

Under President Roh, South Korea's domestic politics and
relations with the U.S. and North Korea will require an almost
total overhaul. Can he walk the tightrope of maintaining security
on the peninsula, keeping America engaged, and retaining the
support of the voters who elected him? Reconciling those goals
would test even the most experienced and cynical of politicians,
so it is anyone's guess as to whether President Roh can succeed.
Failure, however, offers such a horrific prospect that no one can
possibly hope for it.

The writer is also a member of the Korean National Academy of
Sciences.