South Africa for China

President Nelson Mandela's announcement that South Africa is to cut diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in favor of the mainland is surprising and even bewildering because it constitutes such a marked departure from almost everything he has said before on the subject. His repeated assertions that it would be immoral to make the change now appear to have been a string of empty promises.

But while it is true that Mandela has reneged on his promises, the whole truth is more complex. Mandela indicated, with sincerity, that his choice was made in a spirit of resignation rather than as a positive step. His previous loyalty to Taiwan has been based in part on his resentment towards the mainland's perceived blackmail. In addition, Taiwan's transition to democracy has coincided with our own, while prospects for democracy on the mainland have been crushed.

But his attempt, however honorable and well intentioned, could not be sustained beyond a few years. No country can afford to ignore the world's most populous country whose economy is destined to be the world's largest in less than a generation. The impending transfer of Hong Kong to the mainland added pressure on South Africa to make the change.

The unpalatable fact is that the government does not appear to attach much importance to human rights abuses in foreign countries. The reason may be that by attempting such a course in Africa, South Africa would be forced to adopt a confrontational stance with so many countries that South Africa would risk being totally marginalised on the continent.

Although economic factors are often cited in the debate on which China South Africa should recognize, they are probably less important than it might at first appear. The position is obscured by disputable trade statistics provided by both sides, and dubious economic and aid carrots dangled by both in an effort to maintain the status quo or to change it. But after all is said and done, the fact is that South Africa's trade with both Taiwan and with the mainland, including Hong Kong, are loosely equivalent.

Taiwan will not maintain its aid projects in South Africa, and the already tenuous petrochemical joint venture is probably dead. But since Taiwan maintains huge trade with and investment ties with the mainland, and with other countries which long ago switched away diplomatic recognition, further economic consequences will be minor. The dramatic increases in trade between South Africa and both territories might have been assisted by their respective governments, but they are not dependent on it.

South Africa's switch is primarily to do with international diplomacy and our government's desire to become increasingly a world player -- for example winning a permanent seat for Africa on the UN security council which China could veto. Remaining out of step with every other significant world power would have been an obstacle to that. The move against Taiwan is another lesson that is difficult to countenance but nevertheless true -- that human rights issues have a defining effect on diplomacy only in exceptional circumstances, and very seldom outweigh other factors where the national interest is being measured.

-- Business Day, Johannesburg