Social anarchy leading to disintegration

Social anarchy leading to disintegration

Fear about social revolution gains strength as mass brawls and
riots intensify throughout the country. Researcher Muhammad A.S.
Hikam of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences believes that a
social revolution will not occur.

Question: Will the continuing mass brawls and rioting
throughout the country lead to a social revolution?

Hikam: No, because any revolution will require social
discipline, ideology and power that leads in a certain direction,
while Indonesia thus far has none of these things. What has
really happened in the country is social anarchy, which is
actually more dangerous than revolution. Social anarchy can lead
to disintegration, including separatism.

Why have the reasons behind the brawls and riots expanded to
include religious differences, ethnic differences and differences
between communities?

A plural nation like Indonesia will always have
multidimensional seeds of potential conflicts. The variables most
responsible for causing the conflicts are the breakdown of the
government's authority after the fall of former president
Soeharto (on May 21, 1998), the deepening economic deprivations
caused by the economic crisis and provocateurs who have certain
interests.

The military has repeatedly acknowledged the operation of
provocateurs but has never disclosed their identities. Who do you
think is behind the unrest?

Provocation is most likely committed by those who have
political motivations, interests and opportunities, and who stand
to benefit from anarchy.

Theoretically, and without making any allegations, these
provocateurs could be Soeharto, his family and cronies, the
military, groups who wish to maintain the status quo, like the
ruling Golkar party, or even pro-reform agents. But if we
consider the degrees of probability, Soeharto and his family are
at the top of the list because the reform movement has eradicated
his formal power and is threatening the existence of his family.
The Soehartos, therefore, have the strongest motivations and
interests in preventing the reform from continuing. Pro-reform
agents are the least probable provocateurs because anarchy will
never benefit them.

What does the fact that the provocation has involved
sophisticated techniques and knowledge mean to you?

Technical capability can be purchased by those who have the
financial means, besides having the political motivations and
interests.

Actually, provoking brawls such as those which occurred in
Ketapang (Jakarta), Kupang (East Nusa Tenggara), Luwu (Central
Sulawesi) and Karawang (West Java), does not require
sophisticated techniques generally accessible to military
personnel. Even hoodlums are capable of carrying out such
provocation.

But the massive rioting in Jakarta in the middle of May 1998,
the earlier abduction of political activists and the killing
spree in East Java in the latter half of last year required
sophisticated techniques and intelligence.

Why has the Armed Forces (ABRI) failed to halt the mass brawls
and riots?

In pragmatic terms, the military does not have adequate power
to cover the entire archipelago and it has no credibility in
society -- particularly after the people learned that the
military was not neutral in politics and that its personnel were
allegedly involved in various human rights violations.

Politically, its elite personnel are not cohesive. Therefore,
ABRI Commander Gen. Wiranto is consolidating personnel in a bid
to improve ABRI's cohesiveness. His recent meeting with political
figures was also part of a serious effort to improve the
military's credibility.

The waning of cohesiveness began with the formation of cliques
among personnel when the late Ali Moertopo became one of the
leaders of the military. It worsened when Soeharto intervened in
the military's recruitment and promotion with his personalized
policies. Cohesiveness worsened further when the policies caused
the fragmentation of military personnel into "green" (Moslem),
"red and white" (nationalist) groups.

Actually, the fragmentation was based merely on patron-client
relations and had nothing to do with ideology or religion because
not all personnel belonging to the "green" group were Muslims and
not all those belonging to the "red and white" groups were non-
Muslims.

Does the fact that ABRI has never disclosed the identities of
the provocateurs indicate that some government or military
officials are involved?

That is probable. If ABRI disclosed their identities, its
reputation might be ruined further.

But if the current leaders of ABRI fail to distance themselves
from past mistakes, they will find it difficult to assure the
people that they are honestly trying to make improvements.
Therefore, they must settle the numerous unresolved cases,
including the abduction of political activists, the killing of
the Trisakti University students and so on.

Do you see the importance of dialog among conflicting parties?

Yes. Nahdlatul Ulama leader Abdurrahman Wahid's efforts to
gather figures who have real influence in society, including
those who might have provoked the mass brawls and riots, is
actually reasonable because it is based on real politics. (riz)