Social anarchy leading to disintegration

Fear about social revolution gains strength as mass brawls and riots intensify throughout the country. Researcher Muhammad A.S. Hikam of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences believes that a social revolution will not occur.

Question: Will the continuing mass brawls and rioting throughout the country lead to a social revolution?

Hikam: No, because any revolution will require social discipline, ideology and power that leads in a certain direction, while Indonesia thus far has none of these things. What has really happened in the country is social anarchy, which is actually more dangerous than revolution. Social anarchy can lead to disintegration, including separatism.

Why have the reasons behind the brawls and riots expanded to include religious differences, ethnic differences and differences between communities?

A plural nation like Indonesia will always have multidimensional seeds of potential conflicts. The variables most responsible for causing the conflicts are the breakdown of the government's authority after the fall of former president Soeharto (on May 21, 1998), the deepening economic deprivations caused by the economic crisis and provocateurs who have certain interests.

The military has repeatedly acknowledged the operation of provocateurs but has never disclosed their identities. Who do you think is behind the unrest?

Provocation is most likely committed by those who have political motivations, interests and opportunities, and who stand to benefit from anarchy.

Theoretically, and without making any allegations, these provocateurs could be Soeharto, his family and cronies, the military, groups who wish to maintain the status quo, like the ruling Golkar party, or even pro-reform agents. But if we consider the degrees of probability, Soeharto and his family are at the top of the list because the reform movement has eradicated his formal power and is threatening the existence of his family. The Soehartos, therefore, have the strongest motivations and interests in preventing the reform from continuing. Pro-reform agents are the least probable provocateurs because anarchy will never benefit them.

What does the fact that the provocation has involved sophisticated techniques and knowledge mean to you?

Technical capability can be purchased by those who have the financial means, besides having the political motivations and interests.

Actually, provoking brawls such as those which occurred in Ketapang (Jakarta), Kupang (East Nusa Tenggara), Luwu (Central Sulawesi) and Karawang (West Java), does not require sophisticated techniques generally accessible to military personnel. Even hoodlums are capable of carrying out such provocation.

But the massive rioting in Jakarta in the middle of May 1998, the earlier abduction of political activists and the killing spree in East Java in the latter half of last year required sophisticated techniques and intelligence.

Why has the Armed Forces (ABRI) failed to halt the mass brawls and riots?

In pragmatic terms, the military does not have adequate power to cover the entire archipelago and it has no credibility in society -- particularly after the people learned that the military was not neutral in politics and that its personnel were allegedly involved in various human rights violations.

Politically, its elite personnel are not cohesive. Therefore, ABRI Commander Gen. Wiranto is consolidating personnel in a bid to improve ABRI's cohesiveness. His recent meeting with political figures was also part of a serious effort to improve the military's credibility.

The waning of cohesiveness began with the formation of cliques among personnel when the late Ali Moertopo became one of the leaders of the military. It worsened when Soeharto intervened in the military's recruitment and promotion with his personalized policies. Cohesiveness worsened further when the policies caused the fragmentation of military personnel into "green" (Moslem), "red and white" (nationalist) groups.

Actually, the fragmentation was based merely on patron-client relations and had nothing to do with ideology or religion because not all personnel belonging to the "green" group were Muslims and not all those belonging to the "red and white" groups were non- Muslims.

Does the fact that ABRI has never disclosed the identities of the provocateurs indicate that some government or military officials are involved?

That is probable. If ABRI disclosed their identities, its reputation might be ruined further.

But if the current leaders of ABRI fail to distance themselves from past mistakes, they will find it difficult to assure the people that they are honestly trying to make improvements. Therefore, they must settle the numerous unresolved cases, including the abduction of political activists, the killing of the Trisakti University students and so on.

Do you see the importance of dialog among conflicting parties?

Yes. Nahdlatul Ulama leader Abdurrahman Wahid's efforts to gather figures who have real influence in society, including those who might have provoked the mass brawls and riots, is actually reasonable because it is based on real politics. (riz)