Sobriety for Korea

A group of 26 North Koreans came ashore after their submarine ran aground last week, off the eastern coast city of Kangnung, South Korea, 75 kilometers from the demilitarized zone dividing the two Koreas.

Nine infiltrators were killed in a gunbattle with South Korean troopers while 11 were found dead and believed shot by their colleagues. One was captured, while five are still at large and the object of a massive manhunt.

South Korea says it won't allow the intrusion to derail efforts to draw Pyongyang into peace talks but it has called for the resumption of joint military exercises with the United States, which North Korea considers as a provocation.

Last year, Seoul and Washington skipped the joint military drills which have been held every year since 1976 in a gesture to encourage North Korea to abide by its part of a deal with the U.S. to scrap its nuclear weapons program.

Washington, however, is not interested, but has condemned the intrusion. The U.S. has high stakes on the Korean peninsula, and previous gains mean the Korean Energy Development Organization might be derailed if Washington takes the hardline approach to Pyongyang over a small incident.

In the run-up to the presidential election, this would be political suicide for the Clinton administration. North Korea is in a deep economic crisis and with no help from outside, it might become dangerous not only for Seoul but also for Japan, China and Taiwan.

The military in North Korea is not a rational instrument of policy. It tends to operate according to its own logic and the important thing now is for South Korea not to overreact to Pyongyang's insecurity.

A beached North Korean submarine and a few armed infiltrators does not really add up to a huge incident alongside the more urgent nuclear issue that really threatens peace on the Korean peninsula.

-- The Nation, Bangkok