So close, yet so far

So close, yet so far

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan)
may have assured itself a general election victory even with less
than half of the votes counted, but the coveted presidency for
its chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri still hangs in the balance.
That question is far from being settled, and there is even the
distinct possibility that she may be shut out altogether. Many
obstacles and pitfalls remain on her road back to Merdeka Palace,
where she spent much of her childhood as the daughter of
Indonesia's first president and founding father Sukarno.

Dictating Megawati's direction is whether she can secure
enough support in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which
is scheduled to convene in November to elect the country's new
president. Winning the June 7 general election for the House of
Representatives (DPR), while crucial, may not be enough in
itself. PDI Perjuangan will likely have to form a coalition with
one or more parties to win the necessary support in November, and
this could entail long and protracted negotiations. Golkar, the
ruling party which looks certain to come second in the general
election, in the meantime also has began sounding out offers to
form a coalition to push the nomination of the incumbent,
President B.J. Habibie.

Since it is the MPR, and not the DPR which elects a president,
Megawati and Habibie also will have to cut deals with the
military -- which has 38 unelected representatives -- and the 200
representatives from the regions and functional groups who join
the 500 DPR members to form the MPR. For Megawati and Habibie,
the initial forays are beginning in the battle for the
presidency.

Another major problem confronting Megawati has to do with her
image, especially in the face of a concerted and systematic
campaign by her adversaries to discredit her. They have set out
to sow seeds of doubt -- ranging from the issue of her gender and
religion to her intellectual capabilities -- in their efforts to
undermine her. While some of the methods used in the campaign
border on character assassination, they are still within
acceptable limits. In a democracy, particularly a fledgling one
such as ours, there are bound to be those who go overboard or
become overzealous. One can take up just about anything but guns
to fight for a cause in a democracy.

Ultimately, it will depend on Megawati and her advisors to
decide her plan of action to deal with the sundry accusations
against her. The coming weeks and months will be tense, difficult
and decisive. Her resistance and resolve against physical and
mental abuse in the past won her sympathy, support and, as shown
in last week's elections, votes. It is questionable, however,
whether such a passive strategy remains the right course at this
decisive stage in the presidential race. Sooner or later, she
will have to be more assertive in staking her claim to lead the
nation.

It would be dangerously misguided to dismiss Golkar, just as
it was premature of the many who underestimated the longtime
ruling party's strengths before the June elections. Some analysts
believe Habibie could still emerge the winner in November
although his Golkar is in a minority position. This is due to the
complex presidential election process, and the fact that the
appointment of some of the MPR representatives necessarily favors
the incumbent.

A victory for Habibie in November may be constitutionally
proper, but it would hardly be in the spirit of democracy. In
fact, it would throw Indonesia back into the state of the New
Order regime, which we all assume has been safely left behind.
Let us not forget that the Soeharto regime lived up to the letter
of the 1945 Constitution, the prime reason why he went
unchallenged for 32 years, but nobody in their right mind would
call his government democratic.

It will be a tragedy if the party that wins the June general
election fails to win the presidency in November. Those who voted
for PDI Perjuangan did so in large part because of its nomination
of Megawati for president. If she loses the presidential race in
November, it will be a major blow to democracy, and to the will
of the people. If it happens, the greatest irony will be that she
will have been defeated by the 1945 Constitution, which her
father helped draft and which her party has vowed to defend
despite convincing arguments for it to be replaced or amended.