So close, yet so far
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) may have assured itself a general election victory even with less than half of the votes counted, but the coveted presidency for its chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri still hangs in the balance. That question is far from being settled, and there is even the distinct possibility that she may be shut out altogether. Many obstacles and pitfalls remain on her road back to Merdeka Palace, where she spent much of her childhood as the daughter of Indonesia's first president and founding father Sukarno.
Dictating Megawati's direction is whether she can secure enough support in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which is scheduled to convene in November to elect the country's new president. Winning the June 7 general election for the House of Representatives (DPR), while crucial, may not be enough in itself. PDI Perjuangan will likely have to form a coalition with one or more parties to win the necessary support in November, and this could entail long and protracted negotiations. Golkar, the ruling party which looks certain to come second in the general election, in the meantime also has began sounding out offers to form a coalition to push the nomination of the incumbent, President B.J. Habibie.
Since it is the MPR, and not the DPR which elects a president, Megawati and Habibie also will have to cut deals with the military -- which has 38 unelected representatives -- and the 200 representatives from the regions and functional groups who join the 500 DPR members to form the MPR. For Megawati and Habibie, the initial forays are beginning in the battle for the presidency.
Another major problem confronting Megawati has to do with her image, especially in the face of a concerted and systematic campaign by her adversaries to discredit her. They have set out to sow seeds of doubt -- ranging from the issue of her gender and religion to her intellectual capabilities -- in their efforts to undermine her. While some of the methods used in the campaign border on character assassination, they are still within acceptable limits. In a democracy, particularly a fledgling one such as ours, there are bound to be those who go overboard or become overzealous. One can take up just about anything but guns to fight for a cause in a democracy.
Ultimately, it will depend on Megawati and her advisors to decide her plan of action to deal with the sundry accusations against her. The coming weeks and months will be tense, difficult and decisive. Her resistance and resolve against physical and mental abuse in the past won her sympathy, support and, as shown in last week's elections, votes. It is questionable, however, whether such a passive strategy remains the right course at this decisive stage in the presidential race. Sooner or later, she will have to be more assertive in staking her claim to lead the nation.
It would be dangerously misguided to dismiss Golkar, just as it was premature of the many who underestimated the longtime ruling party's strengths before the June elections. Some analysts believe Habibie could still emerge the winner in November although his Golkar is in a minority position. This is due to the complex presidential election process, and the fact that the appointment of some of the MPR representatives necessarily favors the incumbent.
A victory for Habibie in November may be constitutionally proper, but it would hardly be in the spirit of democracy. In fact, it would throw Indonesia back into the state of the New Order regime, which we all assume has been safely left behind. Let us not forget that the Soeharto regime lived up to the letter of the 1945 Constitution, the prime reason why he went unchallenged for 32 years, but nobody in their right mind would call his government democratic.
It will be a tragedy if the party that wins the June general election fails to win the presidency in November. Those who voted for PDI Perjuangan did so in large part because of its nomination of Megawati for president. If she loses the presidential race in November, it will be a major blow to democracy, and to the will of the people. If it happens, the greatest irony will be that she will have been defeated by the 1945 Constitution, which her father helped draft and which her party has vowed to defend despite convincing arguments for it to be replaced or amended.