Slow changes in Japan

After four prime ministers in three years, Japanese voters had hoped that their next parliamentary election might bring a measure of political stability. Instead, balloting on Sunday seems likely to produce a new period of confusion and jockeying among familiar players. All the major candidates say they favor a Japan that is more open and free of regulations, with a foreign policy more independent of the United States. But voters remain conservative and skeptical about the possibilities of reform.

Japan is slowly emerging from one of its worst recessions in modern history, and economic issues are a major factor in a campaign that sometimes sounds similar to the American election debate. One challenger for prime minister, Ichiro Ozawa, has gone the route of Bob Dole, advocating a sharp reduction in business and personal taxes. Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, the front- runner, argues that the deficit is too high and Japan will have to increase taxes to support its increasingly aged population with health and social benefits.

Hashimoto, the head of the long-running Liberal Democratic Party, is way ahead in the polls. Ozawa, who broke from the Liberal Democrats several years ago, is foundering, in part because Japanese voters do not believe he can carry out his promises.

The opinion polls may be less reliable than usual this year because Japan has revamped its electoral system. The changes, which call for each district to be represented by only one member of parliament, were designed to eliminate smaller parties and allow for the emergence of one strong centrist party to challenge the Liberal Democrats. That has not yet happened. The Liberal Democrats remain the favorite to win as they face a challenge from several smaller parties, all of them fighting each other.

The new system was also supposed to cut back on the money pouring into politics from business and special interests, which has had such a corrupting effect in the last decade. The flow of money has diminished a bit, but mostly because falling profits have left many corporations unable to make large contributions.

For the United States, the apparent strength of Hashimoto's Liberal Democrats poses the same dilemma that Washington has faced for years. The party is the most resistant to reforms that Americans believe could open Japan to American exports and services. But the party has such strong roots in the bureaucracy and other elites that it can usually deliver on the promises it does make to Washington. Hashimoto is further prized in Washington because of the skillful way he has defused anger in Okinawa over the behavior of American troops there and renewed the strategic alliance with the United States.

Japanese voters have grown increasingly impatient with the government's insensitivity to their needs. Their views have been reinforced by a recent scandal in which the government invited the spread of AIDS by callously barring imports of safe blood products in order to give Japanese drug companies time to develop their own versions. No matter who wins these elections, the voters are likely to remain cynical if their leaders continue allowing business interests to keep the economy closed.

-- The New York Times