Slouching toward fanaticism in Pakistan

Pervez Hoodbhoy Quaid-e-Azam University Islamabad Project Syndicate

President Bush's comparison of the capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed (reputed to have planned the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon) to the liberation of Paris in 1944 was certainly hyperbolic, but the arrest was a political blessing for the U.S. President all the same.

For Pakistan's Gen. Pervez Musharaf, Mohammed's apprehension is a mixed bag: It gained a pat on the back from Bush but simultaneously revealed the falsity of Gen. Musharaf's claims that Pakistan is largely al-Qaeda free. Indeed, it is now starkly apparent that much of al-Qaeda and its top leadership prefer refuge in Pakistan to any other place.

The reason would be obvious to anyone who witnessed the recent "million man march" in Karachi organized by Pakistan's newly formed coalition of religious parties, the MMA. Called to protest America's impending attack on Iraq, marchers set effigies of George Bush and Tony Blair on fire as smiling portraits of Osama bin Laden, draped with fresh flowers, looked on. Speakers accused Gen. Musharaf's government of treachery and denounced its cooperation with the FBI in nabbing al-Qaeda members.

Before the terrorist attacks on America and the ouster of the Taliban in next-door Afghanistan, Pakistan's religious parties had few seats in either the federal or provincial assemblies. Resentment against the U.S. after the bombing of Afghanistan rocketed the religious alliance's popularity sky-high. The religious alliance has now formed governments in two of Pakistan's four provinces, the Frontier and Baluchistan, and openly declares its intent to shatter Pakistan's pro-American policy.

The rise of the MMA is sure to make a fundamental change upon not only Pakistani foreign policy but also upon the country's society and culture. Almost immediately after assuming office, the new governments ordered an end to music in public transport, required public buses to stand still for the five daily prayers, and closed down video shops and cinema houses. Folk singers have been threatened, abducted, and forbidden to sing in public. Cable television operators see their premises ransacked.

More of this awaits. New laws, expected to be passed by the Frontier Assembly soon, follow the lead of Afghanistan's former Taliban government. For example, women without jilbab and a chaperone may not leave their homes; shops shall not advertise the sale of sanitary pads or undergarments; hair-removing creams and lotions may not be sold; use of perfume and makeup will be banned; women will not be allowed to use male tailors; male doctors may not treat women patients; women guests at hotels will not be allowed in the swimming pool; coeducation has been identified as a cause of fornication and is to be phased out; family planning shall be declared un-Islamic, and the sale of contraceptives banned.

Driven by its compulsion to make war on Iraq at all costs, Washington has shown little inclination to consider the war's long-term impact on countries lying at the periphery of the war zone. In a special trip to Islamabad, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca sought to reassure a visibly nervous Pakistani government that the war would be "quick and short."

Even if Rocca is right, the anger flowing in Pakistan's streets will drastically weaken moderate opinion while further radicalizing Islamic groups. However, if the war drags on, if Baghdad comes under siege with heavy civilian casualties -- or if weapons of mass destruction are actually used -- all bets could be off. Mounting anger within the Pakistan Army, whose soldiers exchanged fire with American troops two months ago, would make Musharaf's isolation total, perhaps forcing him to abandon the American-led coalition.

To appease radical opinion, Islamic militant leaders who were jailed a year ago are now operating freely again. A taped speech by the released head of the Lashkar-i-Tayyaba, Hafiz Saeed, was played on Kashmir Day at mosques in Rawalpindi. Lashing out at India and America, the firebrand cleric rhetorically asked, "Allah has told us to make atom bombs. America is telling us not to. O Muslims, to whom shall we listen, Allah or America?"

Across the border in Afghanistan, U.S. forces are experiencing frequent ambushes and rocket attacks upon their bases. This has led to aggressive U.S. Army sweeps, backed in some cases by heavy bombers.

The heightened activity, much of it concentrated along the Pakistani border, suggests that some of Pakistan's army intelligence officers have resumed their support of the Taliban and its friends. Waiting for spring to come is ex-mujahideen commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar -- a former favorite of the CIA and Pakistan's ISI during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

He is massing his forces and weapons for a determined strike against American forces. Hekmatyar and al-Qaeda expect their task to be easier since the enemy is likely to have its attention focused on Iraq.

Fighting terror backed by radical Islam requires a sophisticated understanding of its political and economic roots. America's plan to liberate Iraq with cruise missiles betrays not only crude ignorance, but also a lack of will to try and deal with the causes of terrorism. America's strategic myopia may well provide bin Laden and his kind with a fresh flood of recruits and make Pakistan, the Islamic world's only nuclear-armed state, ungovernable.