Skepticism haunts next election

By Yulius P. Hermawan

BANDUNG (JP): The widespread criticism of the decisions reached by the recent Special Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) shows a public awareness of the necessity of next year's general election. The election is now seen as the only possible platform on which to build a new form of politics under a legitimate and credible leadership.

Yet the failure of the Special Session to establish a consensual manner for conducting further reform (including the general election) has also created skepticism about the possibility of a successful general election. This phenomenon indeed leads one to think: how to hold general elections which could produce a legitimate and credible government.

There are some important reasons why we really need to examine the question. The general election will be held in circumstances which seem to be very unconducive for generating a new political system.

First, the election will be held amid massive political instability. Ever since Soeharto stepped down last May, Indonesian politics has been struggling with uncertainty about the legitimacy and the credibility of B.J. Habibie's presidency.

The Special Session of the MPR was seen as being one of the main forums which could end the uncertainty. Habibie himself promised to hold the session to demonstrate his sincere intention to end the political crisis.

To a certain degree, the promise generated a certain degree of support from various groups of people toward Habibie's presidency. People then hoped that the Special Session would really generate decisions that reflected the people's demands, and would both lead to political stability in the transitional period and prepare the way for the general election.

But looking at the decisions reached in the session, many have claimed that they were only a part of Habibie's maneuvering to remain in power. The meeting failed to respond to the main public demands of holding Soeharto accountable for the country's crisis and the abolition of the Armed Forces' (ABRI) dual function. There were no clear-cut statements which reflect the representatives' decision to respond to the two demands.

It is unfortunate for Habibie when people continue to ask about his lack of legitimacy. The security forces' brutal methods to dismiss student protests against the Special Session further challenges Habibie's overall legitimacy. The so-called Semanggi tragedy seems to be a more popular issue than the Special Session. Many people have said that both the government and ABRI must take responsibility for the bloody tragedy. Habibie was perceived as having failed to use a human approach to respond to student protesters' demands.

Thus, the coming general election will be held in politically risky circumstances. The absence of public confidence in the government's ability to hold a fair election leads to increased risk of disintegration.

Moreover, the ongoing economic crisis may contribute to the outcome of the general election. There are important reasons to be aware of this situation. Social unrest and violence may occur during both the campaign and polling. Both the parties and the public will attempt to benefit from the situation.

Money politics may be used by certain parties to gain supporters. Terror could be used as an alternative method. If this proves to be the case, there will be conflicts during the election and post-election era. It will be difficult to bring the situation under control if all parties are skeptical about the election result.

In the muddle of the controversy over the result of the Special Session and the question of Habibie's legitimacy, another question emerges: what are the prospects for reform in Indonesia considering there is no acceptable clear-cut platform for reform?

Many people are thus looking to the general election as the only possible means to produce a credible and legitimate regime. However many people are now skeptical about the likelihood of the election proving a success, since it will be held under uncertain political and economic circumstances. Will the general election be held fairly? Will it produce a legitimate government? Will the election create political stability in Indonesia?

There are conditions that are necessary in order to hold a fair election by which the result will satisfy all parties and the whole nation.

The first condition is that the laws on general elections and party politics should command the respect and support of all parties and pressure groups. The laws should provide the same chance for all parties to win; they should also consist of general rules as to how parties can garner support.

To gain respect from all parties, the government should invite them to participate in the law-making process. Perhaps this would not be in line with the normal decision-making procedure. Yet the transition period should be interpreted as a period where all parties can be involved in shaping the future.

The current House of Representatives and the government should tolerate all parties articulating their demands and views on the new laws. Otherwise, the new political laws will create dissatisfaction and perpetuate the political uncertainty.

Once the laws are passed, all parties should be subject to the rules. This is the second necessary condition. No party should be allowed to break the rules to attract voters. They should also act in a rational manner.

Theoretically, they are agents for conflict and vehicles people are using to achieve office. In the transition period there should be a widely accepted consensus that the parties are not agents for conflict but agents for integrity. Accordingly, they bear a responsibility to ensure the maintenance of the unitary state.

All parties should also be agents of education. They should attempt to maintain the social order by building people's political consciousness of the importance of fair competition. Once a party wins the election, all parties should demand their supporters end inter-party conflicts. They should accept the winner as a legitimate holder of a popular mandate.

The third condition is that the government should be neutral. Any attempts by the government to intervene in the election will contribute to the election failing to produce a legitimate government.

In the past, the government intervened to provide guarantee the ruling Golkar party won the majority of the seats. In the coming election, the government should abandon the old practice and treat all parties equally.

The fourth condition is that ABRI should also take a neutral position. Its main responsibility is to ensure that the competition between the parties does not collapse into disorder. ABRI should respect the result of the election, regardless of what it is and give the winner its full support.

The fifth condition is that all voters should have a mature and rational attitude toward the election and all the candidates. A combination of maturity and rationality will produce stability. When voters' support fails to win seats for their candidate, the voters must respect those candidates who do win.

The last condition is that the election itself should be held fairly. The committee for elections should be independent and free from intervention by any party or the government. The committee should consist of people from various institutions. An election watchdog is then needed to guarantee that the polling is conducted in accordance with the principle of fairness. Both the elections committee and the watchdog should take responsibility for the widespread acceptance of the election.

All the above conditions are crucial for the election to function effectively to produce a new government which will be accepted and supported by everyone. Otherwise, people will be skeptical of the result, as they were when looking at the result of the Special Session. The political instability may persist if the election produces such skepticism.

Finally, it will be a test for civil society to prove its maturity and rationality. The success of the election will really depend on the people's performance. There is no reason for the government to delay the formulation of the new political laws. To accomplish this job satisfactorily, the government should also be aware of the popular demands of more freedom for parties, the equality of all parties and holding a fair general election.

The writer is a lecturer on political science at Parahyangan Catholic University and a researcher at Parahyangan Center for International Studies, Bandung. He is a graduate of Monash University, Australia.

Window: Thus, the coming general election will be held in politically risky circumstances. The absence of public confidence in the government's ability to hold a fair election leads to increased risk of disintegration.