Skepticism haunts next election

Skepticism haunts next election

By Yulius P. Hermawan

BANDUNG (JP): The widespread criticism of the decisions
reached by the recent Special Session of the People's
Consultative Assembly (MPR) shows a public awareness of the
necessity of next year's general election. The election is now
seen as the only possible platform on which to build a new form
of politics under a legitimate and credible leadership.

Yet the failure of the Special Session to establish a
consensual manner for conducting further reform (including the
general election) has also created skepticism about the
possibility of a successful general election. This phenomenon
indeed leads one to think: how to hold general elections which
could produce a legitimate and credible government.

There are some important reasons why we really need to examine
the question. The general election will be held in circumstances
which seem to be very unconducive for generating a new political
system.

First, the election will be held amid massive political
instability. Ever since Soeharto stepped down last May,
Indonesian politics has been struggling with uncertainty about
the legitimacy and the credibility of B.J. Habibie's presidency.

The Special Session of the MPR was seen as being one of the
main forums which could end the uncertainty. Habibie himself
promised to hold the session to demonstrate his sincere intention
to end the political crisis.

To a certain degree, the promise generated a certain degree of
support from various groups of people toward Habibie's
presidency. People then hoped that the Special Session would
really generate decisions that reflected the people's demands,
and would both lead to political stability in the transitional
period and prepare the way for the general election.

But looking at the decisions reached in the session, many have
claimed that they were only a part of Habibie's maneuvering to
remain in power. The meeting failed to respond to the main public
demands of holding Soeharto accountable for the country's crisis
and the abolition of the Armed Forces' (ABRI) dual function.
There were no clear-cut statements which reflect the
representatives' decision to respond to the two demands.

It is unfortunate for Habibie when people continue to ask
about his lack of legitimacy. The security forces' brutal methods
to dismiss student protests against the Special Session further
challenges Habibie's overall legitimacy. The so-called Semanggi
tragedy seems to be a more popular issue than the Special
Session. Many people have said that both the government and ABRI
must take responsibility for the bloody tragedy. Habibie was
perceived as having failed to use a human approach to respond to
student protesters' demands.

Thus, the coming general election will be held in politically
risky circumstances. The absence of public confidence in the
government's ability to hold a fair election leads to increased
risk of disintegration.

Moreover, the ongoing economic crisis may contribute to the
outcome of the general election. There are important reasons to
be aware of this situation. Social unrest and violence may occur
during both the campaign and polling. Both the parties and the
public will attempt to benefit from the situation.

Money politics may be used by certain parties to gain
supporters. Terror could be used as an alternative method. If
this proves to be the case, there will be conflicts during the
election and post-election era. It will be difficult to bring the
situation under control if all parties are skeptical about the
election result.

In the muddle of the controversy over the result of the
Special Session and the question of Habibie's legitimacy,
another question emerges: what are the prospects for reform in
Indonesia considering there is no acceptable clear-cut platform
for reform?

Many people are thus looking to the general election as the
only possible means to produce a credible and legitimate regime.
However many people are now skeptical about the likelihood of the
election proving a success, since it will be held under uncertain
political and economic circumstances. Will the general election
be held fairly? Will it produce a legitimate government? Will the
election create political stability in Indonesia?

There are conditions that are necessary in order to hold a
fair election by which the result will satisfy all parties and
the whole nation.

The first condition is that the laws on general elections and
party politics should command the respect and support of all
parties and pressure groups. The laws should provide the same
chance for all parties to win; they should also consist of
general rules as to how parties can garner support.

To gain respect from all parties, the government should invite
them to participate in the law-making process. Perhaps this would
not be in line with the normal decision-making procedure. Yet the
transition period should be interpreted as a period where all
parties can be involved in shaping the future.

The current House of Representatives and the government should
tolerate all parties articulating their demands and views on the
new laws. Otherwise, the new political laws will create
dissatisfaction and perpetuate the political uncertainty.

Once the laws are passed, all parties should be subject to the
rules. This is the second necessary condition. No party should be
allowed to break the rules to attract voters. They should also
act in a rational manner.

Theoretically, they are agents for conflict and vehicles
people are using to achieve office. In the transition period
there should be a widely accepted consensus that the parties are
not agents for conflict but agents for integrity. Accordingly,
they bear a responsibility to ensure the maintenance of the
unitary state.

All parties should also be agents of education. They should
attempt to maintain the social order by building people's
political consciousness of the importance of fair competition.
Once a party wins the election, all parties should demand their
supporters end inter-party conflicts. They should accept the
winner as a legitimate holder of a popular mandate.

The third condition is that the government should be neutral.
Any attempts by the government to intervene in the election will
contribute to the election failing to produce a legitimate
government.

In the past, the government intervened to provide guarantee
the ruling Golkar party won the majority of the seats. In the
coming election, the government should abandon the old practice
and treat all parties equally.

The fourth condition is that ABRI should also take a neutral
position. Its main responsibility is to ensure that the
competition between the parties does not collapse into disorder.
ABRI should respect the result of the election, regardless of
what it is and give the winner its full support.

The fifth condition is that all voters should have a mature
and rational attitude toward the election and all the candidates.
A combination of maturity and rationality will produce stability.
When voters' support fails to win seats for their candidate, the
voters must respect those candidates who do win.

The last condition is that the election itself should be held
fairly. The committee for elections should be independent and
free from intervention by any party or the government. The
committee should consist of people from various institutions. An
election watchdog is then needed to guarantee that the polling is
conducted in accordance with the principle of fairness. Both the
elections committee and the watchdog should take responsibility
for the widespread acceptance of the election.

All the above conditions are crucial for the election to
function effectively to produce a new government which will be
accepted and supported by everyone. Otherwise, people will be
skeptical of the result, as they were when looking at the result
of the Special Session. The political instability may persist if
the election produces such skepticism.

Finally, it will be a test for civil society to prove its
maturity and rationality. The success of the election will really
depend on the people's performance. There is no reason for the
government to delay the formulation of the new political laws. To
accomplish this job satisfactorily, the government should also be
aware of the popular demands of more freedom for parties, the
equality of all parties and holding a fair general election.

The writer is a lecturer on political science at Parahyangan
Catholic University and a researcher at Parahyangan Center for
International Studies, Bandung. He is a graduate of Monash
University, Australia.

Window: Thus, the coming general election will be held in
politically risky circumstances. The absence of public
confidence in the government's ability to hold a fair election
leads to increased risk of disintegration.